MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks, Props, Odds for Thursday, July 9, 2026
We got back on track on Wednesday, as Seiya Suzuki hit a home run, helping to make up for losses on Cedric Mullins and Teoscar Hernandez. Let’s build on this with another winning day on Thursday.
Today, we’re going with Tyler O’Neill, Tyler Stephenson, and Fernando Tatis Jr. I like the spots for each of these hitters.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 60-233 (+0.62 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Thursday, July 9
Tyler O’Neill Home Run Odds
Tyler O’Neill is currently slashing .193/.295/.338 with five home runs in 166 plate appearances. His barrel rate has plummeted from 16.5% to 9.1%. There’s nothing in his overall numbers to suggest taking him for a home run prop. However, when digging in a little deeper, there are reasons to be optimistic.
For one, O’Neill is heating up at the plate, homering twice in last night’s game. This is a streaky hitter, so whenever he’s rolling, you have to take notice. That brings O’Neill up to three homers in his last four games.
On top of that, O’Neill has a career 136 wRC+ against lefties (103 wRC+ vs righties), and he’ll get one today in David Peterson, who just allowed 10 earned runs against the Cardinals. The former Met has a 5.14 xERA on the season, so this is an exploitable matchup.
Last but not least, we’re getting favorable conditions at Camden Yards, with temperatures getting up to 85 degrees in this one.
We’ll bet on O’Neill to hit No. 6 in this spot. Risk 0.1 units.
Tyler Stephenson Home Run Odds
Tyler Stephenson has a .234/.320/.364 slash with six home runs in 244 plate appearances. However, he still has a respectable 10.4% barrel rate. Stephenson hasn’t homered since June 21st, but I like the spot for him tonight.
Believe it or not, Stephenson has hit Jesus Luzardo well throughout his career, going 3-for-5 with two walks and an .870 expected slugging percentage. The veteran catcher has a career 112 wRC+ against lefties (100 wRC+ vs. righties), which also bodes well.
Then we have to consider that we’re getting 87-degree temperatures at Great American Ball Park, which is a home run haven. The ball could be flying out tonight.
Considering these factors, we’ll ride with Stephenson to hit No. 7 tonight. Risk 0.1 units.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr. is having a disappointing season, slashing .284/.345/.385 with five home runs in 398 plate appearances. This power outage between him and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a mystery.
However, Tatis still has an 11.0% barrel rate, so perhaps he’s slowly starting to get on track. While he hasn’t homered since he hit two big flies back on June 30th, I like the spot for him tonight.
This is a matchup against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has a 7.82 xERA and a 1.97 HR/9 on the season. Tatis has done well vs. Kelly throughout his career, going 11-for-31 with four home runs and a .584 expected slugging percentage.
That makes it feel like a good time to take a chance on Tatis to hit No. 6. Risk 0.1 units.
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