2026 3M Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets, Props, OAD
The PGA Tour has officially closed the chapter on international events this season, as we begin the final charge of the 2026 regular season in Blaine, Minnesota. TPC Twin Cities is next on tap to host the 2026 3M Open, beginning this Thursday.
Similar to the events that preceded the links swing – the Travelers Championship and the John Deere Classic – we’ll watch the field take on another TPC layout that rewards aggressive play off the tee and demands a set of hot irons and putting to keep pace with the birdie barrage in store. Kurt Kitayama emerged as the 2025 champion of this event, continuing a very strong trend of elite ball strikers with plus distance who have prevailed year over year in the Twin Cities. Ahead, we’ll run through all the bets I’ve placed for the 2026 3M Open.
Click the odds anywhere in this article to place wagers on 3M Open odds. For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my 3M Open preview.
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3M Open Betting Odds
Find the comparison table at the bottom of this post for 3M Open odds and the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.
How I Built My 3M Open Betting Card
It is a fair week to consider betting in the Without Scheffler market, as he is a man amongst boys in this field; he is the only player inside the OWGR top-30 who will be teeing it up at TPC Twin Cities. I’ve decided to take him head-on, however, as I believe TPC Twin Cities’ layout opens up the playing field for many of the top ball-strikers to have a spike week.
We have not seen the favorites contend much over the years at this event, so I’ve opted to begin my betting card much further down the board, maximizing my exposure to trending ball-strikers who simply need to flip their putter on TPC Twin Cities’ straightforward greens. From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2026 3M Open.
- Outrights — 3.5U in to pay 25U each
- FRL — 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
- Full tournament matchups — 1U in to pay out 2U
- Props — 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each
3M Open Odds: Outright Bets (3.5 units)
Doug Ghim
My Bet: +4900
The profile of players who have won the 3M Open each year since it joined the PGA Tour in 2019 is very specific: Elite ball-strikers with plus distance who have a proven track record in birdie-fests. Since short game has proven to be so inconsequential at this event over the years, it casts a pretty wide net of potential contenders in great ball-striking form, but it’s Doug Ghim who stands out to me as the most appealing value in this field. Distance has not always been a part of Ghim’s game, but he’s made significant improvements in that department over the last year.
He ranks top-30 in Driving Distance in this field over the last 36 rounds, and ranks 9th in Total Driving as a result, having maintained his usual accuracy amidst this recent hike in distance. Ghim has developed into a very well-rounded player this season, ranking 3rd overall in my model this week behind only Scheffler and Kitayama. He finished T6 at the John Deere Classic earlier this month, which marked his 4th top-20 finish over his last seven starts. He has plenty of familiarity around TPC Twin Cities, playing this event in each of the last six years with four top-30 finishes over that span. He continues to trend up, and will have a serious chance to contend on this ideal course fit for his game.
Corey Conners
My Bet: +5000
This field may lack depth of stars at the top, but I was still surprised to see Conners’ odds drift this far. The veteran Canadian has made a career out of separating with his ball-striking, and his form remains in great shape leading into this week. Conners has now finished top-25 in three of his last four starts, including a T14 at Royal Birkdale last week, where he led the field in SG: APP.
Conners’ two career PGA Tour victories came at TPC San Antonio, a course of similar yardage which places a similar premium on precise ball-striking. Conners has one prior appearance at the 3M Open back in 2019, where he ranked 3rd in the field in SG: Ball Striking. If he can get the putter to turn around this time, I like the way the rest of his game stacks up for TPC Twin Cities.
Jackson Suber
My Bet: +5800
It has been the Summer of Suber for Jackson, who has completely turned his season around over the last two months. Over his last eight starts, he’s piled up three top-6 finishes and three additional top-30s. While he hasn’t been able to close out a win just yet, the 26-year-old continues to gain valuable experience playing under pressure on Sunday.
He’s been amongst the final pairings in each of his last two starts at The Open (T28) and John Deere Classic (T6). Suber has been at his best on easier TPC Layouts, with each of his top-6 finishes this season coming at TPC Craig Ranch, TPC Toronto, and TPC Deere Run. Suber is a skilled driver in excellent approach form at the moment, and has also proven to be a reliable putter throughout this stretch of elevated play.
Jordan Smith
My Bet: +6200
Jordan Smith is your prototypical fit for TPC Twin Cities, and slots in perfectly as a comp player to those who have won before him at this event, like Kurt Kitayama, Lee Hodges, Jhonattan Vegas, Cameron Champ, and Tony Finau. Each are reliable ball-strikers who possess above-average driving distance and can confidently lean on their driver as the strength of their game to attack this course with bold and aggressive lines off the tee. He is one of just three players in this field rank top-25 in SG: OTT, Driving Distance, and SG: APP. Leading into this week, Smith has sustained excellent form, ranking top-10 in SG: T2G over his last 36 rounds. While putting is not his strong suit, he’s proven he can contend whenever he is able to putt to field-average. He’s now finished in the top 20 in three of his last four starts, including a T18 finish at last week’s Open Championship where he ranked top-10 in the field in SG: Putting. Putting tends to be a crapshoot at TPC Twin Cities, but considering Smith’s consistency all season from tee-to-green, it’s encouraging to see him build momentum on the greens now too.
Johnny Keefer
My Bet:+6500
There were some growing pains early this season for the 2025 Korn Ferry Tour standout, but Keefer has really turned a corner as of late. He’s now made the cut in eight of his last nine starts, with two top-10 finishes over that span. Throughout the season, Keefer has looked the part of a Tour-level ball-striker, ranking 2nd in SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. He also ranks top-15 in SG: T2G, SG: OTT, and SG: APP, which makes him the 14th overall player in my model this week. Short game has been the issue this year for Keefer, but TPC Twin Cities is a rare venue on the PGA Tour where short game skill is devalued. We’ve seen plenty of deficient putters like Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, and Jhonattan Vegas break through at the 3M Open over the years, and Keefer would be a sensible player to fall in line with that trend.
Sam Stevens
My Bet:+7700
TPC Twin Cities is a ball-striker’s paradise, and Stevens has enjoyed his time here with finishes of 2nd and T10 over the last three years. It’s been a volatile season for Stevens, but the upside is worth chasing. He’s posted three top-10 finishes this season, most recently finishing T7 at the US Open. Like many of the other players on my betting card, Stevens is a long driver with spike approach upside when his game is on. He ranks 20th in Total Driving and 12th in Comp Course History. The Oklahoma State standout still has plenty of untapped potential and will come to the 3M Open with plenty of confidence after his recent close calls here.
William Mouw
My Bet:+8400
Continuing the trend of great ball strikers who’ve been held back by a cold putter, Mouw has already proven that his game translates at TPC Twin Cities, finishing T7 in his 3M Open debut last year. The 2025 ISCO Championship winner will ride some positive momentum into Minnesota once again this week, coming off of a T10 finish at this year’s ISCO Championship in his most recent start. Mouw’s iron game is seriously thriving at the moment, ranking top-10 in the field in SG: APP in each of his last two starts at the ISCO Championship and John Deere Classic. He’s a great profile fit for TPC Twin Cities, ranking 7th overall in my model. That is a credit to ranking top-10 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, and Comp Course History. Considering his strong recent form, great course fit, and proven course history, Mouw checks all the boxes I’m looking for this week, and will be a popular bet for that reason.
Michael Brennan
My Bet:+8500
At this early stage of his career, Michael Brennan’s game compares almost identically to Cameron Champ’s. As such, I’m going to look Brennan’s way whenever we return to a course like TPC Twin Cities, where Champ has enjoyed much success. Like Champ, Brennan is one of the most powerful drivers on the PGA Tour, feasting on every driver-heavy course he’s run through in his first full season on Tour. An aggressive, driver-heavy approach served him well in his PGA Tour debut, winning the Bank of Utah Championship comfortably.
Brennan is the best driver in this field by a significant margin, and in addition to ranking No. 1 in SG: OTT, he also ranks 4th in SG: Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. That is the formula for success at TPC Twin Cities, which rewards elite off-the-tee play more than any other skill set. It’s been a boom-or-bust season for Brennan so far, but he seems to be settling into his own now, with five made cuts over his last six starts. That includes a T6 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the only instance over the last three months in which he’s gained strokes putting. TPC Twin Cities has proven to be a course where lesser putters have been able to correct their issues, and if that’s the case this week for Brennan, we know the rest of his game will be ready to attack.
Aaron Wise
My Bet:+22500
The comeback tour is in full swing for Wise, who has returned to the PGA Tour with a head full of steam after taking a sustained break from the game for mental health reasons. If you haven’t been monitoring opposite field events closely, you may have missed the heater Wise is riding into Minnesota, as he’s finished T3 and T15 in his last two starts at the ISCO Championship and Corales Championship. While it may be against lesser competition, these are two venues that emphasize a driver-heavy approach and reward players with plus driving distance.
In that regard, TPC Twin Cities is an ideal venue to keep this form going. Over the course of his career, Wise has not been the best putter, but it’s been the ball-striking that has carried him. His putting has looked better in recent weeks, though, and TPC Twin Cities continues to prove to be the exception to the rule, where lesser putters are able to hold their own. Wise is a longshot to win, but he’s playing with confidence now and has legitimate top-20 upside for this price.
3M Open Bets: First-Round Leader (0.5 units)
Jordan Smith
My Bet: +5900
I love Jordan Smith’s fit for this golf course, and he’ll enter this week in as good of form as we’ve seen from him all season. Smith’s length should open up even more birdie-or-better opportunities here, as he’ll look to keep the momentum going with three top-20 finishes over his last four starts.
Sam Stevens
My Bet:+6100
Stevens is the type of volatile player I love to target in the FRL market, as we’ll know very early into this tournament whether or not he’s brought his A-game. His course history is undeniable at the 3M Open, finishing runner-up last year and T10 in his 2023 debut.
Michael Brennan
My Bet: +7000
I’m interested in Michael Brennan whenever we come to a course that demands elite driving. That will be the case at TPC Twin Cities, which severely penalizes poor drives with its many water hazards, and rewards well-struck tee shots with accessible pin locations from the fairway. You never know what you’re going to get from Brennan on the greens, but putting skill has proven to be less predictive at this event over the years.
William Mouw
My Bet: +7500
Mouw is starting to heat up at the end of the season, just as he did last year after winning the ISCO Championship. He finished T7 at the 2025 3M Open after his strong performance at the ISCO Championship, and will now return to TPC Twin Cities fresh off of a T10 in his most recent start. Mouw is a longer hitter who is trending with his irons now, and putted very well in his first look at TPC Twin Cities last year.
Stefano Mazzoli
My Bet: +14500
We’ve seen Alex Fitzpatrick win his way onto the PGA Tour and not look back. Could the same apply for Mazzoli? The DP World Tour member earned a spot in this week’s field by winning the co-sanctioned event at Corales last week. A similar driver-heavy game plan will serve him well at TPC Twin Cities, and his iron game appears to be sharp as ever leading in.
3M Open Picks: Props (2.5 units)
Full Tournament Matchup: Corey Conners over Sungjae Im
My Bet: -120
In this battle of potential Presidents Cup teammates, Corey Conners is the much more trustworthy option. It’s been perplexing to see Sungjae Im continue to look so poor on approach, and I simply cannot trust the state of his iron game going into a course like TPC Twin Cities, which puts such an emphasis on ball striking.
While he has the edge in course history with multiple top-15 finishes here, he’s missed the cut in each of his last two starts at the 3M Open. Conners and Im each finished T14 at The Open last week, but it’s Conners whose form has been the best of late, posting three top-25 finishes over his last four starts. On a layout that demands confident and consistent ball striking, it’s Conners who has the edge in this matchup.
Top-20 Finish: Jackson Suber
My Bet: +230
The argument could be made that no player outside of Scottie Scheffler has looked more consistent than Jackson Suber over the last two months. Suber has three top-6 finishes over that span, and continues to look more comfortable in his second season on the PGA Tour as each week passes. Suber is an excellent course fit for TPC Twin Cities, ranking 6th overall in my model with top-10 ranks in SG: TOT (L36), SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, Birdie or Better Percentage, and Par 5 Scoring.
Top-20 Finish: William Mouw
My Bet: +340
Just behind Suber in my model is William Mouw in the No. 7 spot. I believe he is the most undervalued player in this field, coming in hot off of a T10 finish in his latest start at the ISCO Championship. Mouw has already shown his game translates at this venue, finishing T7 in his debut last year. He’ll enter in excellent form once again, ranking top-10 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, and Comp Course History.
One & Done
My Pick: Corey Conners
Corey Conners We find ourselves behind the eight ball this One And Done season with all of the Signature Events and majors now behind us. Playing from behind in this home stretch now, it’s going to take a stretch of multiple contrarian winners to get back into position. As such, I’m bypassing the top favorites this week and going to a Corey Conners, proven veteran who suits this course very well.
Conners comes to TPC Twin Cities fresh off leading The Open in SG: APP. While there are a long list of differences between Royal Birkdale and TPC Twin Cities, the need for bold and aggressive driving remains a constant. And while Conners does not dazzle on the greens, this is a venue where the lesser putter have still managed to hold their own. If not Conners, I would also consider playing Doug Ghim, Jordan Smith, or Keith Mitchell in OAD.
3M Open Odds & Best Bets: The Full Card
That’ll do it for this week’s PGA Tour golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own 3M Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the Rocket Classic preview!
Photo Credit: REUTERS
