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It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta. Compare Mexico Open odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Wyndham Clark, Ben Griffin, and Ben James project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
For the third consecutive time this fall, PGA Tour players will reach for their passports, this time traveling to Mexico for the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta. After its debut on the PGA Tour schedule in 2022, Greg Norman’s Vidanta Vallarta resort course in Puerto Vallarta finds a new home amidst the Fall Swing for its fifth installment in 2026. Below, we’ll dive into Mexico Open at Vidanta odds for this week’s PGA Tour betting.
Through its first four years on the PGA Tour schedule, Vidanta Vallarta has proven to be the purest example of a bomber’s paradise, rewarding the longest players in the field regardless of their form leading in. Brian Campbell challenged that narrative last year, and with the aid of one of the most fortuitous bounces in PGA Tour history, he spoiled the community party and defeated pure bomber Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff.
Standing at 7,337 yards with generous fairways and moderate rough, long hitters like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, Cameron Champ, Jake Knapp, and Aldrich Potgieter have paid off the bomber narrative well thus far. It seems there’s credence to that narrative and merit behind chasing the longest drivers and best long-iron players yet again this time. Here’s everything you can expect from Vidanta Vallarta ahead of the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta.
MEXICO OPEN AT VIDANTA ODDS: THE FAVORITES
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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
Relatively speaking, this is a field golf fans can get excited over. One week after a Bermuda Championship which featured just six OWGR top-100 players and none inside the top-60, this week’s field features a sizeable jump up to 21 OWGR top-100 players, and four inside the top-55.
Wyndham Clark headlines in a class of his own this week. Clark will be the betting favorite as the only OWGR top-25 player in this field (No. 5), and is just three starts removed from his most recent win at the BMW Championship. Like Bellerive Country Club, a driver-heavy approach will be rewarded for the longest hitters in the field, and we’ve seen prohibitive favorites of a similar profile like Jon Rahm and Tony Finau pay off at short prices in this event. He will be a worthy favorite, in search of a solid bounce-back performance after a disappointing T63 at the Baycurrent Classic.
Joining Clark amongst the favorites this week are Tom Kim, Ben Griffin, Marco Penge, Corey Conners, and Ben James.
Brian Campbell is back to defend his Mexico Open at Vidanta victory, and he’s had to wait a long while to do so, picking up his maiden PGA Tour victory 20 months ago in February of 2025. Campbell’s victory came at the expense of a massive community win, as he edged out popular longshot Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff. Tony Finau is the only other defending champion in the field this week, fresh off sinking a $1M half-court putt at a BYU basketball game last week. Jon Rahm is set to embark on a long journey back to the PGA Tour, and Jake Knapp continues to recover from off-season surgery.
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Introduction To Vidanta Vallarta
Going into this event in 2022, plenty of guesswork was needed to project how it would play professionally, hosting some of the best players in the world for the first time. From the information available, we assumed the course would be long, just under 7,500 yards at sea level, with slow and sticky Paspalum grass throughout. Puerto Vallarta is also known for its high winds just off the Pacific coastline, so we can expect top players in windy conditions to be suited for this setup. That is a standard formula to favor the players with the longest carry distance and long-iron play.
It doesn’t always work out this way. But after a four-year sample size, it seems all the presumed narratives, of course fit for bombers and top long-iron players ring true. With such a clear player archetype in mind, it should be pretty straightforward to narrow down a player pool of contenders this week to those two criteria, with a bonus of performance in comp coastal, windy conditions. Despite Brian Campbell’s stark contrast to this profile, the totality of the 2025 leaderboard tells a different story, so for my research purposes, Campbell’s win will be treated as an outlier.
Looking at the 2026 leaderboard, eight of the top-12 finishers entered the week ranking in the top 40 in both Driving Distance and Proximity Gained, so after successfully landing on Jake Knapp last year, I will continue to rely on that same player profile formula at this event.
2026 Course Updates
20 months and multiple seasons have passed since we last saw Vidanta Vallarta, and with that have come some notable changes to the course setup. In today’s modern game, we typically expect tournaments to lengthen over time and find new square footage that pushes the limits of the property as a last-ditch attempt to impose a challenge to the field. I would have especially expected that to be the case considering how much of a pure birdie fest this tournament has become without wind; winning scores over its first four years include -17, -24, -19, and -20.
With all of that said, Vidanta Vallarta has chosen to zag where others zip. They’ve shortened this easy bomber’s paradise by over 100 yards. It played to 7,456 last time we were here in 2025, but will now play to 7,337 yards in 2026, and still as a par-71. Of course, scorecard yardages are dynamic, and tee boxes can easily be pushed back to their 2025 playing distances over the course of the week, but it is notable that no concerted efforts were made to toughen up this course.
Agronomy and hole layouts remain the same, with one interesting twist: The difficult par-3 17th, which proved to be the demise of Aldrich Potgieter in 2025, will get the TPC Scottsdale stadium treatment, injecting some much-needed energy into Mexico’s national open.
The Greg Norman Signature
Norman’s footprint spans predominantly across resort properties, bringing a player-friendly feel that does not require a ton of risk-reward decision-making. Vidanta will play much more difficult for the professionals than the resort guests, however, as they’ve converted two par 5s to long par 4s and transformed from a par 73 to a par 71 since. They’ve also overhauled and reconstructed the 55 bunkers on the property and lengthened the course by about 200 yards leading up to the inaugural 2022 event.
The course is described as having large landing areas off the tee, but is dotted with numerous bunkers and consistent water hazards in play for approach shots. So, it looks like a bona fide second-shot course where players can freely hit driver off the tee for all par 4s and par 5s.
With no penalty from the rough and wide-open fairways, it’s definitely an advantage for bombers this week. Particularly those with the longest carry distance, as we expect little rollout on sticky fairways. Long hitters, elite approach players, and situationally strong players from out of the sand will make up the ideal profile.
If we take the tournament operators at their word, they believe the course’s length and susceptibility to wind will be its best defense. We’ve seen, however, that courses which rely on distance and the elements have actually not done much to impose PGA Tour-level talents. That profile fits at Caves Valley, the Plantation Course at Kapalua, and TPC Craig Ranch. Each has surrendered winning scores of at least -25 in recent years. Assuming winds are not significant, I expect a winning score closer to -20 in 2026.
Vidanta Vallarta Course Specs
- Yards: 7,337
- Par: 71 (5x 3s / 9x 4s / 4x 5s)
- Greens: Paspalum
- Architect: Greg Norman
- Comp Courses: TPC Craig Ranch, Grand Reserve, Corales, Plantation Course at Kapalua, TPC Deere Run, Riviera CC, Port Royal GC, El Cardonal, TPC Twin Cities, PGA National
- Hole-by-hole Breakdown:
Course Comps & Course history
Vidanta Vallarta is a long course that rewards the best long-iron players from 200+ yards. The constant wind and familiar slow and sticky Paspalum greens should reward players with proven results on coastal resort courses. Players like Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, Jon Rahm, Kurt Kitayama, Jake Knapp, Alex Smalley, Aldrich Potgieter, and Patrick Rodgers fit that profile with top-10 finishes here over the first four years.
Of the players in the field this week, the top 10 in terms of Total Strokes Gained at the Mexico Open at Vidanta include Tony Finau, Patrick Rodgers, Alejandro Tosti, Emiliano Grillo, Sami Vallimaki, Harry Hall, Andrew Novak, Brian Campbell, Aldrich Potgieter, and Isaiah Salinda.
There are five players in the field who have played better at Vidanta Vallarta than any other course against their own baselines: Kevin Roy, Isaiah Salinda, Sami Vallimaki, Patrick Rodgers, and Aldrich Potgieter.
The Best Comp Courses
Grand Reserve, Corales Golf Club, and El Cardonal at Diamante are the three clear-cut best comps in my opinion. Each is a resort-style course exposed to high winds and features Paspalum grass. They rely on distance as their core defense, each sitting at over 7,400 yards. For the most part, they do not penalize players for wayward drives off the tee. As an added bonus, each draws some of the weakest fields we see all year.
The top 10 players in SG: TOT between these three courses are Garrick Higgo, Blades Brown, Joel Dahmen, Nick Dunlap, Gordon Sargent, AJ Ewart, David Skinns, Seamus Power, John VanDerLaan, and Ben Silverman.
Between these three comps, Vidanta Vallarta should play more like Grand Reserve. At Corales, shorter hitters found as much success as the bombers. In five of its first six years, Ramey, McDowell, Garnett, and Joel Dahmen won. Corales gets a majority of its length from several 600-plus yard par 5s. That neutralizes some of the distance advantage when players can’t reach the green in two shots. At Grand Reserve, we’ve seen more success from bombers like Brehm, Hovland, and Finau.
Other Comp Courses
When considering comps in the continental US, TPC Craig Ranch comes to mind when referring to other driver-heavy, open layouts on the PGA Tour. Like Vidanta Vallarta, it was a very player-friendly course that attempted to toughen up for tournament play by extending tee boxes in its first year. Despite record rainfall, it featured minimal rollout on Zoysia fairways and rewarded players with long carry distances.
TPC Deere Run is a natural choice as a comp course, the site of Brian Campbell’s other PGA Tour victory, and really the only two weeks of Cambpell’s year where he looks the part of a viable PGA Tour Player. From a correlation standpoint, Riviera CC features the most leaderboard crossover, with Jon Rahm winning across both and four other players in this field posting top-5 finishes at each within the last three years. They also play to a near-identical yardage and are impacted by winds off the Pacific Coast.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua, CC of Jackson, Torrey Pines North, TPC Twin Cities, and PGA National round out a list of comp courses that favor the longest hitters in the field and discount the need for driving accuracy or elite skill sets around the green.
Combine performance across each of these comps, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History from this week’s field are Blades Brown, Ben Griffin, Max Homa, Sami Valimaki, Brian Campbell, Tony Finau, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, John Parry, Max Greyserman, and Wyndham Clark.
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Key Stats To Consider At The 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta
- Driving Distance
- SG: APP / SG: Ball Striking
- SG: T2G (Recent Form)
- Birdie or Better Gained
- Prox 200+
- Sand Saves Gained
- SG: T2G (>7,400 Yard Courses)
- SG: TOT (Windy Courses)
- Comp Course History
A top-10 course in total yardage last season, Vidanta Vallarta’s generous fairways should continue to serve as a bomber’s paradise and reward the longest drivers in the field, even if some distance has been cut off in 2026. The top 10 players in driving distance who also rank above-average in SG: TOT L36 rounds are Johnny Keefer, Neal Shipley, Max Greyserman, Wyndham Clark, Taylor Moore, Steven Fisk, Rico Hoey, Kristoffer Ventura, Doug Ghim, Kevin Yu, and Trace Crowe.
Vidanta Vallarta features three 195+ yard par-3s, four long par-5s, and six par-4s over 450 yards. Combined, that’s drawn 35% of total approach shots from beyond 200 yards, nearly double the PGA Tour average. Suffice it to say, the best approach players from 200+ yards can separate themselves from the field this week. The top 10 from that range are Corey Conners, Austin Smotherman, Tom Kim, Wyndham Clark, Luke Clanton, Ben James, Blades Brown, Austin Eckroat, Billy Horschel, and Zac Blair.
I’m not looking closely at Short Game stats this week beyond a high-level glance at Sand Saves Gained. The greens complexes seem very straightforward, and Paspalum tends to level the playing field.
Simple Selection?
Suppose this is as simple as who can drive it the farthest and knock their irons the closest. In that case, seven players rank top-40 in Driving Distance & Prox 200+ and above-average in SG: P: Wyndham Clark, Doug Ghim, Jordan Smith, Kevin Yu, Marty Dou, Zach Bauchou, and Austin Eckroat.
This course seemed to lean towards a birdie fest with its generous fairways and not-so-penal rough. But scoring thus far has been kept at bay thanks to the constant intervention of the wind, with a winning mark averaging in the high teens under par over its first four years. To adjust, I’m looking for players who perform best in long, yet not severely difficult conditions. The top-10 in that category are Ben James, Doug Ghim, Austin Smotherman, Harry Hall, Neal Shipley, Trace Crowe, Zach Bauchou, Johnny Keefer, Rico Hoey, and Kevin Roy.
Just nine players in the field rank above average in Prox: 200+, Driving Distance, Birdies or Better Gained, Comp Course History, and SG: Putting: Ben James, Wyndham Clark, Blades Brown, Billy Horschel, Emiliano Grillo, Zach Bauchou, Zac Blair, Austin Eckroat, and Davis Chatfield.
Correlation at Vidanta Vallarta
Judging from the first four years of play at Vidanta Vallarta, SG: Short Game, Par 3: 175-200, and Double Bogey Avoidance made the most notable jumps compared to the tour average. Conversely, Par 4: 450-500 and SG: Ball Striking were considerably less correlated with top results thus far.
Six players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Wyndham Clark, Jackson Suber, Andrew Novak, Zach Bauchou, Austin Eckroat, and William Mouw.
Player Spotlight: Johnny Keefer
If the Mexico Open at Vidanta has shown us anything over its first four years, we can’t overthink it. Vidanta Vallarta is a long golf course with huge fairways and greens that place very little reward on accuracy and instead tip the scales to Driving Distance and Prox: 200+ importance.
This year, Johnny Keefer checks every “cliche” box I’m looking for in terms of distance, approach fit, and Course & Comp Course performance, and we may not even have to pay the steepest premium on his odds come Monday.
It was a gradual adjustment period for Keefer, who experienced some growing pains at the game’s highest level after dominating his way through the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025. It’s clear after one full regular season on the PGA Tour though, that Keefer has a type: long, generous, wind-exposed, and relatively easy scoring venues. Keefer’s three top-10 finishes this past season each came on venues that fit that very same description as Vidanta Vallarta, contending at the Texas Children’s Houston Open (T3), The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (T9), and the Genesis Scottish Open (T3).
He seems to be playing with more confidence against lesser competition in the fall too, as he’s opened the Fall Series with finishes of T7, T10, and T33 over his first three starts. Vidanta Vallarta will be the best fit yet for Keefer’s game, as it plays into his strengths of Driving Distance (9th) and will not penalize him for his lack of accuracy off the tee.
Ranking 11th overall in my model, Keefer will be a fixture on my betting card this week, as he is a perfect fit for Vidanta Vallarta’s generous, windy setup, and enters in very promising form relative to the rest of this week’s field.
2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta Odds: DFS Player Pool
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds. I’ve broken the list by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings, with odds and pricing to be released on Monday.
Model Results & Breakdown
In my model this week, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, Recent Form (SG: T2G), SG: APP, Prox 200+, and Driving Distance, followed by a more balanced mix Birdie or Better %, SG: TOT (High Winds), and SG: P (L36, Paspalum).
Model Favorites
Looking for a bounce-back after a rare and disappointing missed cut at the Bermuda Championship, Ben James remains the No. 1 overall player in my model this week. That missed cut may prove to be a blessing in disguise, as the majority of the Bermuda Championship field will be facing travel complications for their 7+ hour flight to Puerto Vallarta due to inclement weather stoppages. James looks the part of an elite ball striker and streaky putter, making this an ideal bounce-back spot for him.
After James, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Wyndham Clark, Blades Brown, Doug Ghim, Billy Horschel, Emiliano Grillo, Jackson Suber, Kevin Yu, Tom Kim, and Zach Bauchou.
When the 2026 Mexico Open odds open, I already have a pretty clear idea of how I’ll construct my card. I’ll start with Doug Ghim, Johnny Keefer, and Billy Horschel. From there, I will see how many additional mid-tier players (Kevin Roy, Andrew Novak) and longshots (Zach Bauchou, William Mouw) I can fit on my card.
Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating the 2026 Mexico Open odds!
2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta Opening Odds
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