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Best Bet: TEX -5.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Texas 82, Baylor 76
The Pick: Texas 82, Baylor 76
We’re going with the Texas spread based on Baylor’s struggles against AP ranked schools paired with various Texas data points.
Game Betting Analysis
This one seems pretty simple to analyze due to Baylor’s struggles against AP ranked schools. The Bears, surprisingly, have lost their last 15 games outright when facing an AP ranked school. Against the spread, Baylor is just 3-6 when facing an AP ranked school and 5-9 ATS when playing as an underdog. Texas has some decent ATS data to get behind as well, covering 11 of 16 non-conference games along with the last four games played on a neutral court. The total has murky data to test, so we’ll camp out here with the Longhorns’ ATS for this one.
Baylor-Texas Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Texas’s Paint-Dominant Attack vs. Baylor’s Untested New Faces
No. 7 Texas rolls into Sunday’s “San Antonio Hoops Showdown” at the Frost Bank Center unbeaten at 3-0 and averaging exactly 100 points a game in Sean Miller’s second season, built around 7-foot junior Matas Vokietaitis, who leads the team at 21.3 points per game on absurd efficiency — 9-of-9 shooting for 22 points in the opener against Chicago State (109-59), then 26 points and 9 rebounds on 8-of-12 shooting in a 93-62 win over Grambling in which the Longhorns outscored their opponent 46-18 in the paint and ran out to a 14-0 fast-break advantage. That interior punishment was just as evident in a 98-50 demolition of Gardner-Webb, with Joe Sterling, Marcus Spears Jr., Austin Goosby and David Punch all contributing as scorers and playmakers around Vokietaitis. Texas hasn’t just won its first three games, it’s dominated the areas of the floor — the paint, the fast break, the free-throw line — that tend to travel against overmatched opponents and against ranked ones alike, which is exactly what Sunday is about to test.
Baylor, meanwhile, is also 3-0 but has done it with a roster that bears almost no resemblance to the one that went 17-17 last season, Scott Drew’s first non-winning record since 2006-07; the Bears return only two starters and retained just 21% of last year’s scoring, replacing it with newcomers like Kayden Mingo (Penn State transfer), five-star freshman Dylan Mingo and Brett Decker Jr. (Liberty transfer), who combined for 48 points in an 87-65 win over Northwestern State to open the season. Baylor has since blown out Arkansas-Pine Bluff (109-53) and Yale (90-61) for a 95.3-point scoring average of its own, and its exhibition wins over preseason No. 1 Florida and No. 3 Illinois — with Isaac Williams IV scoring 15 and then a career-high 28 — suggest this rebuilt group has real talent. But exhibitions and a trio of overmatched non-conference opponents are a different proposition than a seven-deep, No. 7-ranked team that’s out-paced and out-muscled everyone in front of it, and if Texas’s interior size and transition game translate the way they have through three games, Baylor’s new faces could get overwhelmed in just the kind of high-major environment that didn’t show up on their schedule until now.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Location: San Antonio, Texas
- Venue: Frost Bank Center – n/a
College Basketball Game Trends & Odds
Key Players
Baylor Bears
- Brett Decker Jr. — Last Game: 18 points
- Dylan Mingo — Last Game: 16 points, 6 rebounds
Texas Longhorns
- Mata Vokietaitis — Last Game: 26 points, 9 rebounds
- Austin Goosby — Last Game: 3 points
Photo Credit: REUTERS
