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Best Bet: MEM +8.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Louisville 84, Memphis 79
The Pick: Louisville 84, Memphis 79
We’ll try Memphis’ spread based on Louisville’s ATS struggles on the road along with various Memphis data points.
Game Betting Analysis
Some data actually supports Memphis against a ranked opponent, playing as the home underdog with +8.5-points. Memphis has covered the spread in 10 of 16 home games, a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing as a home underdog. The Tigers also own a 9-4 ATS mark outside the conference. While Louisville is 10-5 on the ATS when playing outside the ACC, the Cardinals have typically struggled on the road with covering spread. Louisville owns a 2-6 ATS record over its last eight road games as the favorite, also failing to cover the spread in eight of 11 road games overall. The total doesn’t offer much conviction with Memphis averaging an insane 177 points per home game this season. However, Memphis has only seen 157 total points or less in six straight home games against AP ranked schools. We’ll cower to the spread which gives an inch-length edge to Memphis.
Louisville-Memphis Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Flory Bidunga’s Interior Force vs. Memphis’s 89.7-Points-Allowed Defense
Louisville opened its season 2-0 under Pat Kelsey by winning with defense and size rather than its jump shot, a distinction that matters heading into Sunday’s 6 p.m. tip at FedExForum. Against Chattanooga on Nov. 3, the Cardinals actually shot just 25.7% from three — missing 15 of 16 attempts in the second half alone — yet still won by 14, 84-70, because they out-scored the Mocs 42-26 in the paint, forced 18 turnovers that turned into 20 points, and racked up 12 steals (four from Adrian Wooley alone). Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga, last season’s Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, set the tone with 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting, 9 rebounds and 3 steals, then followed with 10 points and more interior disruption in a 107-57 blowout of Morehead State four days later, a game in which 7-foot-2 freshman center Obinna Ekezie Jr. (20 points, 13 rebounds, 3-of-6 from three) and Karter Knox (15 points, 11 rebounds) controlled the glass. The No. 11 Cardinals have out-rebounded and out-hustled both opponents, and that two-way interior pressure — Bidunga, Ekezie and Knox crashing the glass while the perimeter defense generates live-ball turnovers — is squarely what Memphis’s frontcourt has to withstand on Sunday.
Memphis, meanwhile, is coming off a game that exposed exactly the kind of defensive and rebounding breakdowns Louisville’s attack is built to exploit. The Tigers (2-1) were run off the floor in a 105-81 loss at No. 22 Vanderbilt on Nov. 10, surrendering 57.1% shooting and going 15-of-32 (46.9%) from three to the Commodores while making just 4-of-19 (21.1%) of their own triples; through three games, Penny Hardaway’s team is allowing 89.7 points per game against a .497 opponent field-goal percentage and a .421 opponent three-point percentage, and getting out-rebounded by 3.7 boards a night (32.3 to 36.0). Compounding matters, senior forward Luke Almodovar — Memphis’s No. 2 rebounder at 4.7 per game and author of a season-high 21 points before landing hard on the back of his head on a second-half dunk against Vanderbilt — has no confirmed status for Sunday, leaving a defense that’s already bleeding points even thinner against a Louisville frontcourt that just dominated the paint and the glass in both of its wins. If Bidunga and Ekezie keep imposing themselves inside the way they have through two games and Memphis’s defense can’t tighten up the same perimeter and rebounding leaks Vanderbilt exploited, Louisville has the formula to leave FedExForum 3-0.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: ESPN, ESPN+
- Location: Memphis, Tennessee
- Venue: FedExForum – 177 ppg
College Basketball Game Trends & Odds
Key Players
Louisville Cardinals
- Obinna Ekezie Jr. — Last Game: 20 points, 13 rebounds
- Adrian Wooley — Last Game: 12 points, 5 rebounds
Memphis Tigers
- Luke Almodovar — Last Game: 21 points
- Tylik Weeks — Last Game: 15 points
Photo Credit: REUTERS
