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The final event of the 2026 ATP season is here, with the ATP Nitto Finals set to take place on the indoor hard courts of Turin, Italy. It is also the final tennis event of the 2026 calendar not including the NextGen Finals. Jannik Sinner, who won the ATP Finals last season, will not be in this year’s field.
Let’s go through the event format, odds, analysis and predictions for the big round robin tournament. Be sure to check out our tennis match trends page for daily odds, trends and insights on each match.
2026 ATP Finals
Favorite to Win: Carlos Alcaraz -135, Ben Shelton +650
Sleeper Pick: Rafael Jodar +1200; Daniil Medvedev +1200
2026 ATP Finals Information
- Dates: November 15 – November 22, 2026
- Location: Turin, Italy
- Surface: Hard (Indoor)
- Tier: Finals
- Defending Champion: Jannik Sinner
2026 ATP Finals Odds to Win
| Seed | Country | Player | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 🇪🇸 | Carlos Alcaraz | -135 |
| 1 | 🇩🇪 | Alexander Zverev | +425 |
| 3 | 🇺🇸 | Ben Shelton | +650 |
| 4 | Daniil Medvedev | +1200 | |
| 8 | 🇪🇸 | Rafael Jódar | +1200 |
| 6 | 🇫🇷 | Arthur Fils | +1600 |
| 7 | 🇺🇸 | Frances Tiafoe | +2500 |
| 5 | 🇮🇹 | Flavio Cobolli | +4000 |
2026 ATP Finals Group Odds & Betting Stats
Below are the groups for the ATP Finals, in which the players will play each other one time (Round Robin) in order to advance into the semifinal KO stage. The players that finish top two in the group standings advance to the semifinals.
Group A Odds
| Player | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record | Group Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Carlos Alcaraz | 41-5 | 15-22-6 | 26-15-4 | -295 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 48-20 | 39-25-3 | 29-37-1 | +350 |
| 🇺🇸 Frances Tiafoe | 44-21 | 34-28-2 | 29-33-2 | +1100 |
| 🇮🇹 Flavio Cobolli | 36-23 | 25-31-2 | 26-31-1 | +1400 |
Group B Odds
| Player | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record | Group Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Alexander Zverev | 62-17 | 40-31-8 | 40-38-1 | +120 |
| 🇺🇸 Ben Shelton | 45-17 | 29-30-3 | 36-26 | +300 |
| 🇫🇷 Arthur Fils | 38-15 | 28-18-4 | 15-33-2 | +350 |
| 🇪🇸 Rafael Jodar | 43-19 | 36-24-1 | 29-31-1 | +400 |
2026 ATP Finals Group Analysis
Group A – Deciding Factors
Carlos Alcaraz’s Revamped Indoor Serve vs. His Post-Injury Workload
Alcaraz enters Turin at No. 2 with a 42-5 record and five titles this season (Australian Open, Doha, Tokyo, Vienna, and Paris) despite missing more than four months with a wrist injury, and the serve that carried him through his two most recent indoor title runs looks meaningfully sharper than it did earlier in his career. His T-serve on the advantage side landed roughly 43 cm from the service line through Vienna and Paris, about 7 cm tighter than his season average of 50 cm, and his overall serve accuracy indoors improved to 57.6 cm from the lines versus his 61.3 cm average — numbers that line up with him saving 82% of break points (18 of 22) in Paris, well above his 66% season rate, and holding serve in 92% of service games there. Add in a tour-leading 31.7% of return games won in 2026 (climbing to 32.9% since his comeback, with 108 break points created across just 11 matches), and Alcaraz is playing the most complete indoor tennis of his career right as the format rewards it most.
The complication, meanwhile, is the schedule he’s carrying into Turin. Back-to-back title runs in Vienna and Paris mean Alcaraz arrives off consecutive deep tournament weeks rather than the rest window he’s had entering past Finals, and his own camp has flagged workload as the single biggest variable heading into a round-robin group with no easy matches against Medvedev, Tiafoe, and Cobolli. If his revamped serve travels the way it did the last two weeks, Alcaraz should be the heavy favorite to win the Ivan Lendl Group regardless of opponent; but if the accumulated minutes from two straight title runs catch up to him physically, the margin against three players each capable of beating him on a given day gets thin fast.
Daniil Medvedev’s Return-Game Revival vs. His Top-10 Inconsistency
After exiting before the fourth round in three of four majors this year — and going eight straight Slams without reaching a quarterfinal — Medvedev’s turnaround has been built on exactly the part of his game that made him a two-time major finalist: his return. He leads the tour with 38 hard-court wins this season, beat Alcaraz in the Indian Wells semifinal before pushing Sinner to two tiebreaks in that final, and successfully defended his Almaty title in October for the first time in his career — his fourth title of a 52-20 season after managing just one all of last year, his first 50-win season since 2023. Medvedev has been explicit about the mechanism behind it: faster, true-bouncing courts like Turin’s let him take the ball earlier and dictate rather than counter-punch, the exact identity that carried him through Hangzhou and Almaty and that should theoretically suit him indoors against this field.
The complication is that his results against this caliber of opponent have been uneven all year — he’s 2-3 against top-10 players in 2026, and a first-round exit in Paris immediately after the Almaty title defense raised fresh doubts about his week-to-week consistency. He’s also split with two coaches this season, parting ways with Thomas Johansson after Wimbledon and Rohan Goetzke after a US Open fourth-round loss to Frances Tiafoe — the same player he’ll face again in this group, this time with a largely new setup behind him under pressure. If the Medvedev who dismantled the field in Almaty and pushed Sinner to the brink in Indian Wells shows up, his return game alone could carry the group; but if the version that lost in the first round of Paris or stalled early at three of four majors appears instead, a player who already has a recent straight-sets win over him in the draw makes an early exit very possible.
Frances Tiafoe’s Signature Win Over Medvedev vs. His Collapse Under Pressure in Cincinnati
Tiafoe arrives at his first career ATP Finals at a career-high No. 8 off a season that includes a title at Halle, a runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Masters, and a US Open semifinal run that featured a straight-sets win over the very man he’ll see again in this group, Daniil Medvedev, in the fourth round. His five wins over top-10 opponents are tied for the second-most of anyone in the field — evidence that his combination of a huge first serve and one of the tour’s most explosive forehands can beat any player in this group on a given day, the same formula that carried him to the Mexican Open final in February and the Cincinnati final in August. A new training setup built around performance physiologist Mark Kovacs has also been credited with sharpening his conditioning and daily discipline down the stretch, which matters across a grueling round-robin week.
The flip side showed up in that very Cincinnati final, where Tiafoe no-showed the deciding set 6-0 after splitting the first two 6-3, 1-6 against Arthur Fils — a collapse that points to the same inconsistency that nearly cost him his Finals spot outright. His next big opportunity ended the same way: a first-round exit at the Paris Masters to home favorite Quentin Halys in a third-set tiebreak, and he only clinched Turin qualification after Tommy Paul lost elsewhere. If the version of Tiafoe with five top-10 wins and a new physical foundation shows up in round-robin play, he has the firepower to beat anyone in this group; but if the version that no-showed a Masters final decider 6-0 appears instead, his debut could end quickly regardless of how dangerous his game looks on paper.
Flavio Cobolli’s Big-Point Magic vs. the Fitness Question That Follows Him to Turin
No player in this field has a stranger statistical profile than Cobolli, who reached the top 10 for the first time in 2026 while actually winning fewer total points than he lost — 49.5% on the season, which by Tennis Abstract’s count makes him the first top-10 player to finish a year under 50% since record-keeping began in 1991. The explanation is entirely about the moments that matter: he’s 19-12 in tiebreaks (61.3%), holds serve in 78.8% of his own service games, and has gone 4-3 against top-10 opponents and 7-4 against top-20 opponents despite those modest underlying point totals — a player who elevates specifically when a set or match is on the line. That profile produced a run to the French Open final (five sets against Zverev), an Acapulco title over Tiafoe himself, and a career-high ranking of No. 6 — and now he gets to chase a group win in front of an Italian crowd at Inalpi Arena that he’s compared to playing a Davis Cup final in singles.
The complication is health, not form. Cobolli withdrew from the Paris Masters with a muscle strain just two weeks before the Finals began, the latest in a season full of physical hiccups mixed in with the big results, and he enters Turin with the thinnest match-fitness cushion of anyone in the Ivan Lendl Group. His game depends on sustaining the long, high-intensity rallies that produce those tiebreak and deciding-set wins, which makes him uniquely exposed if the injury that pulled him from Paris resurfaces across a draining round-robin stretch against three players who can each end points faster than he can extend them. If his body holds up, his clutch instincts and a deafening home crowd make him a live threat to beat anyone in the group; but if the muscle strain flares again, the same fragility that’s shadowed his breakout season could end his tournament early.
Group B – Deciding Factors
Alexander Zverev’s Grand Slam Dominance vs. His Winless Season at the Masters Level
Zverev arrives in Turin as the clear No. 1 seed in the Race, with 9,350 points built almost entirely on the sport’s biggest stages — roughly 65% of his season total came from majors alone, including titles at Roland Garros and the US Open, a Wimbledon final, and an Australian Open semifinal. The Roland Garros title in particular showed the version of Zverev that should scare this group: in a five-set final against Flavio Cobolli, he won 83% of his first-serve points in the decisive fifth set and saved all four break points he faced there, out-dueling Cobolli 21 break-point chances to 8 across the full match. That same big-serve identity carried him past Shelton in the US Open final two months later, where he broke Shelton’s serve four times, lost his own only once, and won 85% of his first-serve points to Shelton’s 71%.
The complication is that none of that major-stage success has translated to the format the ATP Finals actually resembles — a compressed week of best-of-three matches rather than a two-week and best-of-five Grand Slam grind. Zverev won zero Masters 1000 titles in 2026 despite reaching the Madrid final and several other semifinals, suggesting his game is built for peaking over best-of-five matches rather than sustaining dominance across a short, high-frequency stretch. He’s also shown a tendency to get tight in tense moments even when he wins — he was broken in the Roland Garros fourth-set tiebreak after leading 5-3 before recapturing the handle. If Zverev’s major-tested serve and big-match composure travel into round-robin play, he should be the heaviest favorite in the group; but if the Masters-level inconsistency that’s shadowed his season all year shows up instead, a group with three players who’ve each beaten elite competition this year could make Turin a short week for him.
Ben Shelton’s Record-Chasing Serve vs. the Exact Weakness Zverev Exposed in September
Shelton’s serve is the single biggest weapon in this group — he was recorded in the 150s mph range multiple times in 2026 (a corrected 144 mph against Tiafoe at the US Open after an initial 158 mph radar read, and a tour-high 151 mph in Washington), and he averaged 119 mph through the first three sets of that US Open final compared to Tiafoe’s 104 mph in the semifinal before it. That firepower carried him to his first career Grand Slam final, including a late-night marathon win over Carlos Alcaraz that ended Alcaraz’s US Open title defense, and a season that also produced a Canadian Open title and two ATP 500 titles across a heavier 21-tournament schedule than Alcaraz played.
The complication is that the one time this season Shelton faced the exact caliber of opponent — and the exact opponent, Alexander Zverev — he’s grouped with again in Turin, the serve wasn’t enough. In that US Open final, Zverev broke him four times, Shelton won just 71% of his first-serve points to Zverev’s 85%, and analyst Brad Gilbert’s read afterward was that Shelton played too passively off the ground and needed 25-to-30 aces a match, not a reliance on serve speed alone, to beat players at Zverev’s level consistently. Zverev also repeatedly targeted Shelton’s backhand down the middle of the court in that match, a tactical blueprint every player in this group now has access to. If Shelton’s serve shows up the way it did against Alcaraz in Flushing, he can beat anyone in this field in a single set; but if Zverev or another opponent exploits the same backhand and passivity that decided the US Open final, Shelton’s path through round-robin play gets considerably harder.
Arthur Fils’ Clutch Cincinnati Serving vs. His One-Win Grand Slam Season
Fils enters his ATP Finals debut off the best week of his career: a Cincinnati Masters title, his first ATP 1000 crown, won by beating Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 in a final that showcased exactly the kind of serving that should matter in a fast indoor week like Turin’s. He won more than 87% of his points on both first and second serve in the opening set, closing it with three consecutive aces, and after dropping the second set 1-6, he broke Tiafoe twice in the third to close it out 6-0 — a response that speaks to real mental toughness under pressure, something Fils has credited to in-match self-talk during that exact changeover. Add a Barcelona ATP 500 title and Masters semifinal runs in Miami and Madrid, and Fils has proven he can beat elite fields over a full week when his game is on.
The complication is that his season’s results have been almost entirely confined to the Masters and 500 level — he won only a single match across all four Grand Slams in 2026, a first-round win at Wimbledon that produced just 60 of his 3,625 ranking points on the year. Injuries explain most of it: a back injury cost him the Australian Open, a hip injury forced him out of the French Open, and he retired from both Rome and Basel, while a loss to 10th-seeded positioning at the US Open ended his night in the first round against Tsitsipas. That durability question matters more in Turin than it would almost anywhere else on tour, since the round-robin format asks players to win three matches in six days with no rest days between — exactly the kind of accumulated physical stress that’s interrupted Fils’s season repeatedly. If his body holds up the way it did across Cincinnati’s best-of-three week, his serve and resilience make him a real threat to win the group; but if the back or hip issues that have followed him all year resurface, his debut could end before it gets going.
Rafael Jódar’s Break-Point Nerve vs. His Lack of Experience Against the Very Best
No player in the field has climbed faster than Jódar, who started 2026 ranked No. 168 and became the lowest-ranked player ever to qualify for the ATP Finals after reaching the top 100 in March, the top 50 in April, a career-high No. 11 in August, and the top 10 on November 2. The numbers behind that rise are specific and real: he’s converted 44.5% of his break points over the past year, second on tour behind only Tomas Machac and ahead of both Alcaraz (43.8%) and Sinner (43.5%), and he’s lost just two of his first eight ATP tiebreaks. He also wins 52.4% of his second-serve return points (seventh on tour) and 31% of his return games (second only to Sinner), built on standing in against second serves and hitting them back deep roughly 7% more often than tour average — the profile of a player who doesn’t blink when a match gets tight, exactly the trait that will matter across a three-match round-robin week.
The complication is that Jódar’s entire résumé has been built against a tour that hasn’t fully adjusted to him yet, and the one data point against a group rival cuts against him directly: he lost to Alexander Zverev in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, the only meeting between the two this year. His own underlying numbers carry the caveat that they cover a short sample against a league that hasn’t seen him repeatedly, and Turin will be the first time he has to beat elite, battle-tested opponents three times in a single week rather than catching one great run in a 32-draw. If his break-point composure and return pressure hold up the way they have all year, Jódar’s rise could keep climbing against this exact caliber of competition; but if the gap between beating good players once and beating great players three times in six days shows up, his first Finals trip could be a short, educational one.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
