Bills-Rams DFS Picks: Best Value Plays, NFL Week 5

Week 5 wraps up Monday Night Football with a potential Super Bowl preview between two of the favorites to go all the way. The Bills have had the best offense through four weeks and head to the West Coast fresh off their first loss of the season. The Rams, meanwhile, haven’t gotten off to the start everyone expected after a busy offseason and enter the primetime matchup at 2-2. 

Now that you have some context on Monday’s primetime matchup, here are the best DFS picks for the potential Super Bowl preview. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams DFS Picks

POS	Player	Matchup	Salary
MVP	👑 Matthew Stafford	BUF @ LAR	$13,500
FLEX	Kyren Williams	BUF @ LAR	$9,800
FLEX	Dalton Kincaid	BUF @ LAR	$6,600
FLEX	Tyler Higbee	BUF @ LAR	$4,400
FLEX	Keon Coleman	BUF @ LAR	$5,600
FLEX	Davante Adams	BUF @ LAR	$9,400

👑 Matthew Stafford, LAR/QB/MVP ($13,500)

The reigning league MVP has had a tough start to his 18th season. He enters Week 5 ranked top five in total passing yards at 1,189, but his 6 INTs rank second only to Drake Maye. Monday night looks like the perfect opportunity for the veteran QB to get right against a Buffalo secondary that has struggled all season. With the game expected to be a shootout, Stafford and the Rams offense are primed for a big performance based on what we have seen from the Bills defense early this year.

Buffalo ranks 25th in the NFL, conceding 26.8 PPG this season, and Monday’s contest is tied for the week’s highest implied total at 54.5 points. With Stafford and the Rams mostly at full strength, a large chunk of that total should come from Los Angeles. Maye and the Patriots wideouts had their best game of the season against Buffalo last week, and Stafford has the weapons to replicate much of the same.

Kyren Williams, LAR/RB ($9,800)

Despite the team’s slow start, Williams has been arguably the most consistent player on the Rams roster. He enters Monday with back-to-back games of 145-plus scrimmage yards and has been one of Stafford’s primary targets, hauling in 16 receptions over that span. His 2 TDs last week against the Eagles give him four on the season, and he is in a strong spot to keep rolling on Monday both on the ground and through the air against a struggling Bills defense.

We already touched on the secondary’s struggles, but Williams should be able to affect the game on the ground as well. Buffalo allows 116.0 rushing yards per game, and with the workload Williams handles, a significant portion of those yards should come from him. He has 31 carries and 20 targets over the last two weeks and faces a defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season. Look for Williams to follow up last weekend’s elite performance with another big outing in primetime.

Dalton Kincaid, BUF/TE ($6,600)

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is off to the best start of his four-year career. Through four weeks, Kincaid ranks first among all TEs with 270 yards and third with 15 receptions. He holds a 16.0% target share on the team and could see even more with the injuries Buffalo is dealing with heading into Monday. With D.J. Moore (questionable) and Josh Palmer (out) unavailable, additional targets would flow to Kincaid, who has proven to be one of Josh Allen’s more reliable weapons.

Kincaid has caught 15 of 19 targets this season but now faces one of the league’s better secondaries. The Rams rank second, allowing just 145.5 passing yards per game, though Allen presents a very different challenge from anything they have faced. Even so, Kincaid’s career-high 18.0 yards per catch suggests he needs only a handful of looks to justify his $6,600 price tag.

Tyler Higbee, LAR/TE ($4,400)

Veteran TE Tyler Higbee continues to produce at a high level and has stepped up in recent weeks with fellow TE Terrance Ferguson missing time. Higbee has caught 13 of his last 17 targets over the last two weeks, commanding a 17.2% target share with Ferguson out. The volume the 33-year-old is seeing makes him a strong value play at just under $4,500.

The Bills defense has been mediocre against TEs, allowing 7.3 targets and 5.0 receptions per game this season. They rank 17th in the NFL, allowing 11.25 fantasy points per game to the position, and now face Higbee, who has averaged 15.95 fantasy points over his last two outings. Playing alongside elite WRs in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams continues to benefit Higbee, who should remain a reliable check-down option for Stafford in what could be a shootout.

Keon Coleman, BUF/WR ($5,600)

Coleman enters Monday night after a career game against the Patriots last week — 6 receptions for 116 yards and a TD — and clearly benefits from fellow WR Joshua Palmer’s absence. With Palmer questionable again, Coleman could be Buffalo’s primary aerial threat alongside Khalil Shakir. The 23-year-old saw a season-high seven targets on Sunday and could see a similar role if Palmer misses another game.

Coleman will likely face a tough assignment against a Rams secondary that ranks among the league’s better units. Los Angeles will have to respect Buffalo’s dominant ground game, which could free up one-on-one matchups for Coleman and the Bills’ other speedy WRs. Buffalo leads the league with 16 TDs, though just six have come through the air. Keep an eye on Palmer’s status, but Coleman appears to have carved out a bigger role regardless of whether his teammate returns on Monday.

Davante Adams, LAR/WR ($9,400)

Adams continues to produce in his 13th NFL season, though last week saw a natural step back with Nacua back in the lineup. The 33-year-old had back-to-back 135-plus-yard performances during Nacua’s absence but managed just 4 receptions for 32 yards in their first game back together. Even so, Adams remains Stafford’s primary red-zone target and could see multiple end-zone looks in what projects to be a high-scoring game.

Given how poorly Buffalo’s secondary has played, there should be plenty of production on Monday evening. Adams leads Los Angeles in red-zone targets by a wide margin with 38 looks near the goal line. He has just 2 TDs this season, but the volume suggests last year’s league-leading WR receiving-TD total is due for a scoring run.

Photo Credit: REUTERS