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Best Bet: O69.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Texas State 38, Colorado State 32
The Pick: Texas State 38, Colorado State 32
We’ll go with the insanely high total going Over based on both team’s various data points entering the game.
Game Betting Analysis
The Over is the way we’ll go with this one, but buckle up with a high total if 69.5. Colorado State is on a current 7-0 Over run, backed by a back-to-back 50-plus point allowance from the Rams’ defense in their last two contests. While CSU enters with a 5-0 O/U mark on the season, Texas State also enters with the Over in its corner – hitting in four of five games this season and seeing an eye-opening 71.3 points per home game through three games this season. In five games this season, three of Texas State’s games saw one team score 49 points or more, including 63 against Incarnate Word. If feeling even more crazy wagering or trading this game, Texas State struggles in October – failing to cover seven straight in the month, while losing outright in six straight during the month when playing as a favorite. Spooky, indeed.
Colorado State-Texas State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Texas State’s Balanced Attack vs. Colorado State’s Jekyll-Hyde Identity
Texas State is favored by 13.5 to 14.5 pointsThursday against Colorado State, and the number is built on an offense that’s been genuinely balanced rather than one-dimensional. The Bobcats rank 42nd nationally at 34.8 points per game and 531.6 total yards, split almost evenly between the air (268 yards) and the ground (263.6), with quarterback Brad Jackson already up to 1,226 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, Torrance Burgess Jr. anchoring the run game at 614 rushing yards, and Chris Dawn Jr. adding 304 receiving yards on 24 catches. That versatility matters against a Colorado State defense that’s been shredded both on the ground and through the air all season, allowing 423.2 total yards per game with a pass defense that ranks 138th nationally at 300.4 yards allowed through the air. Even coming off a tight 29-31 road loss at San Diego State, Texas State’s ability to attack Colorado State multiple ways — rather than relying on one feature back or one deep threat — gives it the clearest path to covering a number this large.
Colorado State, meanwhile, has arguably been even worse defensively despite matching Texas State’s 2-3 record, surrendering 38.6 points per game (133rd nationally) and 493.2 total yards, with opponents already averaging 25.6 points by halftime alone, which ranks 137th in the country. That defense was just exposed for 56 points by Oregon State and 59 by UTSA in back-to-back losses, and it’s facing a Texas State offense with more balance than either of those opponents. The one thing working in the Rams’ favor is that their own offense isn’t broken — Colorado State actually ranks 27th nationally at 37.4 points per game and 448.4 total yards, led by Jayden Brown’s 409 rushing yards and Reginald Vick Jr.’s 367 receiving yards. If Colorado State’s offense can keep pace possession for possession the way it has all season, the Rams have a real path to turning this into the shootout the total suggests and backdooring a cover even if Texas State’s balance wins them the game outright.
Game Information
- Date: Thursday, October 15, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: CBSSN, Paramount+
- Venue: UFCU Stadium – 71,3 ppg; 2-1 O/U
- Conference: Pac-12
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Over 69.5 (-112)
Key Players
Colorado State
- QB, K’saan Farrar — Last Game: 17/27, 178 yards, TD; rushing TD
- WR, RJ Vick — Last Game: 5 catches, 99 yards
Texas State
- QB, Brad Jackson — Last Game: 27/43, 372 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT; 22 carries, 80 yards
- WR, Beau Sparks — Last Game: 10 catches, 153 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
