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Best Bet: O53.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Best Bet: GNB ML (-115)
Score Prediction: Packers 31, Cowboys 24
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The Pick: Packers 31, Cowboys 24
We’ll take the Over based on head-to-head data, while Green Bay winning outright is also on the table based on the same data and Dallas road struggles vs the NFC.
Game Betting Analysis
It’s hard not to take the Over in this one, the elephant in the room being the Dallas Cowboys’ defense allowing 24, 30, 34, 20 and 28 points to opponents this season. The Packers seemed to find the juice last week at home as well, Jordan Love throwing well over 300 yards while both Matthew Golden and Christian Watson got loose. The data supports it as well, hitting the Over in six straight meetings between both teams along with eight of 11 overall. Green Bay also owns this series, winning five of six head-to-heads with the one non-win actually being a tie. The Packers have covered five of six meetings while Dallas has also dropped the spread in six straight road games when facing the NFC. With a 1.5-point spread though, consider the Packer moneyline instead if looking at a market away from the total.
Cowboys-Packers Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Jordan Love’s Big-Play Ceiling vs. Dallas’s Historically Bad Defense
Green Bay (3-2) is a 1.5-point home favorite with the total sitting at a bloated 52.5, and that number owes a lot to how unreliable Jordan Love’s supporting cast has been up front. Through three weeks the Packers rank dead last in the NFL in PFF pass-blocking grade (41.7) and pass-block win rate (31.9%, the seventh-lowest mark recorded among 672 offensive-line samples since 2006), and they’ve allowed an NFL-high 51 pressures — 14 more than the next-closest team — to go with 20 quarterback hits, 12 more than any other offense. That shows up directly in Love’s own splits: he’s being pressured at a career-high 44.4% clip, and his PFF passing grade falls off a cliff from 76.5 when kept clean to just 25.1 under pressure. But when he has time, he’s been the best quarterback in football — Love was the highest-graded passer in the league in Week 5 (94.5 PFF grade) against Chicago, going 25-of-31 for 367 yards and two touchdowns with a career-high six big-time throws and a 6-of-8, 258-yard, two-touchdown day on deep balls alone. If he gets anything close to that kind of clean pocket again, Green Bay’s offense has the firepower to turn this into a laugher.
Dallas (2-3), meanwhile, is the real elephant in the room — this isn’t an average defense playing behind a shaky Packers line, it’s one of the worst units in football, full stop. Entering Thursday’s game the Cowboys ranked second-to-last in total yards allowed per game (395.4, ahead of only Detroit) and dead last against the run (168.4 yards per game), and that unit then turned in its lowest moment of the season at home against Tampa Bay — a Buccaneers team that had been winless. Rookie Jalon Daniels, making just his second career start, carved them up for 189 yards and a touchdown on 19-of-25 passing while Bucky Irving ran for a career-high 165 yards and two scores on 21 carries, including a 72-yard touchdown to open the second half, in a 24-16 Dallas loss that left Jerry Jones “extraordinarily disappointed” and calling the unit “mind boggling” and “back to square one.” If a Cowboys defense that got gashed on the ground by a winless team days ago can’t tackle in space again, Green Bay has every path to a Lambeau blowout and the cover.
Game Information
- Date: Sunday, October 18, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. (ET)
- Network: NBC, Peacock
- Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Venue: Lambeau Field – 43.5 ppg; 1-1 O/U
Sunday Night Football Betting Information
Key Players
Dallas Cowboys
- QB, Dak Prescott — Last Game: 24/42, 316 yards, TD, 2 INT
- RB, Javonte Williams — Last Game: 12 carries, 45 yards, TD
Green Bay Packers
- QB, Jordan Love — Last Game: 25/31, 367 yards, 2 TD
- WR, Christian Watson — Last Game: 6 catches, 143 yards, 2 TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
