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We’re treated to an NFC South showdown to close out the Week 4 slate, as two teams that look like they can legitimately challenge for the division crown face off on the fast track of Caesars Superdome.
The Falcons looked like a fully cohesive offense with Michael Penix making his season debut in Week 3, while the Saints have already been rolling on that side of the ball with Tyler Shough fulfilling second-year expectations so far.
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Without further ado, let’s dive into three player props to consider for Monday Night Football action. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Falcons-Saints Best NFL Week 4 Player Props
- Bijan Robinson Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
- Chris Olave Over 80.5 Receiving Yards
- Alvin Kamara Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Bijan Robinson Over Rushing Yards
Robinson’s skill set was on full display in a Week 3 dismantling of the Packers, as the star running back accrued 194 rushing yards on 29 carries, with the former total coming just a yard short of equaling his single-game career high. Robinson had been very solid on the ground in Weeks 1 and 2 as well despite facing stacked boxes while Cooper Rush and Jack Strand had the reins of the offense, as he’d gained 155 yards on 37 carries.
With the Falcons having played Thursday night in Week 3, Penix has had plenty of time to truly get in sync with the offense and get himself back to even better health ahead of this matchup. That should pay dividends in the form of a fully functioning passing game for the second straight contest, and we already saw the benefits Robinson was able to reap from having the 2024 first-round pick under center for one game.
The Saints have been very vulnerable to the run early on, allowing a robust 4.8 yards per carry to running backs and the sixth-most rushing yards to the position overall (347). Robinson has averaged a solid 4.3 yards per carry in six career games against the Saints thus far, and although he’s only 2-4 to the Over on the 84.5 in that span, Monday night will mark the first time he gets to face his division rival without Demario Davis (now with the Jets), and there’s a chance Pete Werner (neck) will also sit out the contest.
Original Line Publish: 84.5
Chris Olave Over Receiving Yards
The Saints have essentially lived up to the preseason hype surrounding them through the first three games, and Olave has been a principal reason why second-year QB Tyler Shough has been able to carry over the momentum from his strong rookie-season stretch run. New Orleans’ No. 1 receiver looks to be in the early stages of a career-best campaign, having jumped out to a 27-375-1 line on 36 targets over his first three contests.
Olave has at least eight catches and 86 receiving yards in each game so far, and he’s seen no fewer than 10 targets in any of those contests either. Like Robinson, Olave is just 2-4 to his Monday night Over on the 80.5 versus Atlanta in six career games, but he’ll also have the benefit of facing the Falcons with a key member of their defense missing. In this instance, it’s shutdown cornerback A.J. Terrell, who remains on injured reserve with a groin injury.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has been very tough to run on – more on that in Kamara’s entry below – but the Falcons have allowed a healthy 14.0 yards per catch to wide receivers over the first three games. Shough has been been allowed to be aggressive downfield and Olave is averaging a career-high 10.4 yards per target partly as a result, already having taken six of his 27 catches for 20+ yards.
Original Line: 80.5
Alvin Kamara Over Receiving Yards
One aspect of the Saints’ season that hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts is the ground attack, where notable offseason addition Travis Etienne got off to a middling start and then suffered a hamstring injury that landed him on injured reserve earlier this week. Kamara, who missed the first game of the season himself while recovering from a knee sprain, is now in position to reclaim his old No. 1 spot in New Orleans’ backfield beginning with Monday night’s game, with Kendre Miller serving as a complementary option.
As alluded to above, Kamara will be facing a proverbial brick wall when it comes to running the ball Monday night, considering the Falcons have given up just a league-low 144 rushing yards and have done so at a clip of just 3.1 yards per carry. However, Atlanta has also conceded a 14-60-1 receiving line to RBs, and considering Kamara should be a relatively safe bet for 15-18 touches at minimum, 15 receiving yards doesn’t seem like a particularly heavy lift given his pass-catching skills.
Kamara has already seen seven targets over his first two games despite playing a rotational role, and it’s worth noting he’s also averaged 33.6 receiving yards per game against the Falcons in his long career.
Original Line: 14.5
Photo Credit: REUTERS
