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Top Goal Picks: Kyle Connor, Sam Reinhart & Mitch Marner
Anytime Goal Prop Predictions & Odds: NHL Best Bets for Sunday, October 4th
After Tomas Hertl came through for us, we turn our attention towards a different Vegas Golden Knight with positive regression looming large over Mitch Marner who has yet to find his footing two games into the year.
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Before their contest against Vancouver gets underway, we back a pair of productive forwards who are in a favorable position to score, giving us a trio of Anytime Goal Scorer props to round out our card. For more information, check out our NHL betting trends page for the latest daily game odds, insight, and data.
Kyle Connor (Jets vs. Red Wings) Goal Odds
In Winnipeg’s season opener against the Boston Bruins, Kyle Connor was able to make his presence known from the opening puck drop, dishing out one Assist while scoring a goal in nearly 21 minutes of play.
Heading into Sunday’s contest against the Detroit Red Wings, Connor will be able to continue to play at a high level by ambushing a back line who underwhelms in coverage per their below league average mark in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Even with John Gibson anchoring the Red Wings nets, the lack of protection he receives from his back line will leave him isolated, creating larger gaps beside him for Connor to exploit.
In the Power Play, Connor was aggressive in his efforts of pressuring the net, rifling off two Shots on Goal in quick order. With the Red Wings struggling to shift across the ice, expect Connor to convert his shot attempts into Shots on Goal at a higher rate, increasing his chances of scoring.
Sam Reinhart (Panthers vs. Ducks) Goal Odds
Even though Sam Reinhart has yet to score a goal, the Florida Panthers forward has still been productive with his time on the ice, generating 0.33 Expected Goals while averaging two Shots on Goal per game.
Fortunately for Reinhart, he will have a great opportunity to light the lamp against Anaheim by taking advantage of a back line who currently resides in the bottom ten in Expected Goals Against in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with Lukas Dostal incapable of protecting the Ducks net while scrambling between the pipes in an attempt to wall off the Golden Knights assault at their net, averaging three Goals Against per game.
When in 5-on-4 Situations, Reinhart is in arguably the most efficient Power Play unit in the league while skating alongside Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Seth Jones. With the Ducks forced to pull away from the middle in a desperate attempt to keep a defender in front of the puck, Reinhart will be able to take up space in front of the crease, setting himself up with a high quality rebound opportunity.
Mitch Marner (Golden Knights vs. Canucks) Goal Odds
Like Reinhart, It has also been a frustrating start to the year for the Vegas Golden Knights Mitch Marner, failing to find the back of the net while generating 0.33 Expected Goals per game.
In a matchup against the Vancouver Canucks, expect positive regression to swing towards Marner’s way while skating circles around a back line who struggles to defend their net, fielding a group who ranks 26th in Expected Goals Against. Kevin Lankinen has also been abysmal in his efforts of protecting the Canucks net, averaging a stunning 8.66 Goals Against per game and a .789 Save Percentage in two starts.
The Canucks have also been unable to ward off pressure in the Power Play, giving up over one Expected Goals Against when in 4-on-5 Situations. With Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, and Tomas Hertl pulling defensive attention away from Marner, the width of his shooting lanes on the opposite side will drastically widen, improving the quality of his Shots on Goal.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
