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Top TD Picks: Kyle Pitts & Alvin Kamara
We’re all set for a matchup of NFC South rivals on Week 4 Monday Night Football between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. The Falcons got their first win of the year in Michael Penix Jr’s season debut on Week 3 Thursday Night Football vs. the Packers. It was an impressive performance in a convincing victory. Meanwhile, the Saints had a tough loss where they blew a lead against the Raiders.
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This is a huge game for NFC South implications in what could be a shootout, as highlighted by the 47.5-point total. To that end, let’s dive into my Week 4 MNF touchdown props between the Falcons and Saints. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Kyle Pitts Touchdown Odds
Kyle Pitts showed some promise last season, catching 88-of-118 targets for 928 yards and five touchdowns. He was particularly productive down the stretch, including a monster game on Thursday Night Football when he went off for 166 yards and three touchdowns. With that strong finish, there was some hope that Pitts was turning the corner in his development after a few disappointing seasons.
But that hasn’t been the case so far, as Pitts has been a complete non-factor in new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense. The Falcons’ tight end has combined for only 20 yards in three games.
But I’m willing to take a shot on him finding the end zone in a potential shootout against a Saints defense that just got torched by Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. As an added bonus, Falcons’ coaches made it a point of emphasis to mention that they need to get Pitts more involved this week. At +310 odds, the price is right to make a move here.
Alvin Kamara Touchdown Odds
Alvin Kamara is set to take over the lead back role for the Saints with Travis Etienne placed on injured reserve. While this is still going to be a committee with Kendre Miller, we can expect Kamara to lead the team in touches. I’d say 15+ sounds reasonable here.
You have to like that projected volume in a potential shootout with the Falcons. The Saints are 2.5-point favorites, so it sets up as a favorable game script for Kamara.
While this prop is a lot more expensive than Pitts at +121 odds, it’s still worth a look because you have to think the Saints will defer to the veteran over the less proven Miller here. Perhaps in a week or two, Miller will see more usage, but in the first game without Etienne, I’m predicting that Kamara sees a hefty workload.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
