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Best Bet: U42.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Indiana 24, Michigan 18
The Pick: Indiana 24, Michigan 18
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head data along with various trends for Michigan, especially at home.
Game Betting Analysis
The Under has the most traction to it here, hitting in four of five home games for Michigan this year paired with one of the more elite defenses in points allowed per game. The Under has actually hit in six straight conference home games for the Wolverines, while also seeing the Under hit in three of the last four meetings against Indiana. Michigan’s 1-5 O/U is also enough to get behind, while both teams struggles in the ATS market vastly. Indiana is just 1-6 ATS this season, while Michigan is 2-4, although Michigan has covered three of for meetings.
Indiana-Michigan Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Josh Hoover’s Zero-Interception Efficiency vs. Michigan’s Solid Defense
Indiana enters Ann Arbor at 6-1 and 3-1 in Big Ten play, having just seen a 22-game winning streak snapped in a 19-15 loss to Ohio State, but the offense behind that run remains one of the best in the country, ranking 3rd nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and 2nd in net yards per play while scoring 36.6 points per game (16th). The engine of it all is quarterback Josh Hoover, who has thrown for 1,660 yards and 18 touchdowns against zero interceptions on 63.9% completion, a remarkably clean season that now lines up against a Michigan team making its own major change at the position: Bryce Underwood has been benched in favor of true freshman Tommy Carr, who is set to make his first career start after relieving Underwood last week against Penn State and going 5-of-7 for 47 yards while adding 36 rushing yards and a fourth-quarter touchdown on the ground. Even with a genuinely elite Michigan defense behind him, asking a true freshman making his first start to match possessions with a zero-turnover passing attack that’s humming at a top-3 efficiency level nationally is about as difficult a first assignment as college football offers.
Michigan, meanwhile, does have a real counterweight in that defense, which ranks as the stingiest in the country in yards per play allowed and 2nd-fewest total yards surrendered, holding opponents to right around 16 points per game. If that unit can force even a couple of Hoover’s first interceptions of the season and lean on Carr to simply manage the game with his legs the way he did in relief against Penn State rather than asking him to win it through the air, Michigan has a conditional path to pulling off the upset as touchdown-plus home underdogs against a Hoosiers team that no longer has the aura of an unbeaten season behind it.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Venue: Michigan Stadium – 39.8 ppg; 1-4 O/U
- Conference: Big Ten
Best Bets for College Football Week 8
- Under 42.5 (-105)
Key Players
Indiana
- QB, Josh Hoover — Last Game: 20/40, 296 yards, TD
- WR, Charlie Becker — Last Game: 9 catches, 165 yards
Michigan
- RB, Savion Hiter — Last Game: 11 carries, 78 yards
- WR, JJ Buchanan — Last Game: 3 catches, 36 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
