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Best Bet: U51.5 (-104) at BetMGM
Score Prediction: LSU 29, Auburn 22
The Pick: LSU 29, Auburn 22
We’ll try the Under based on Auburn’s trends along with head-to-head data.
Game Betting Analysis
There is a lot pointing to the Under, so let’s look at that. Auburn enters with a 2-4 O/U record this season, while the Under has also hit in four of the last five meetings with LSU. Auburn has also seen the Under cash in six straight home games when facing an AP ranked school in October as an underdog. The total has more conviction in the data than the ATS market as well, while Auburn has covered four of five meetings with LSU, Auburn has failed to cover four of six games this season. They have also dropped the spread in six straight conference home games. So we’ll stick to the Under for this one.
LSU-Auburn Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: LSU’s Nation-Leading Havoc Defense vs. Byrum Brown’s Rushing Game
LSU (5-2, No. 18) ranks No. 1 nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play at +0.44, holding opponents to just 4.35 yards per snap and a 39.2% success rate while generating havoc on 20.5% of defensive snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the country. That disruptive front lines up well against an Auburn offense that, fresh off upsetting No. 1 Georgia last week, remains almost entirely dependent on quarterback Byrum Brown’s legs rather than his arm: Brown ranks just 100th nationally among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback but 4th among qualified rushers at 0.41 EPA per rush, and he needed 26 carries to get past the Bulldogs. Against a defense specifically built to blow up a one-dimensional, quarterback-run-centric attack, LSU’s havoc-generating front seven is the clearest edge in this game.
Auburn, meanwhile, has a real path if LSU’s own flaws resurface, starting with the fact that the Tigers are winless on the road this season, having lost as favorites at both Ole Miss (32-24) and Kentucky (35-34), and quarterback Sam Leavitt threw an interception in each of his first six games before a clean, four-touchdown outing against Mississippi State. That turnover history lines up against an Auburn defense generating its own havoc on 15.8% of snaps, inside a Jordan-Hare Stadium environment that just helped the Tigers knock off the nation’s No. 1 team. If Leavitt reverts to his early-season turnover habits and Brown’s legs can again carry a limited passing attack, Auburn has a real chance to pull off back-to-back signature upsets.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium – 56.7 ppg; 1-2 O/U
- Conference: SEC
Best Bets for College Football Week 8
- Under 51.5 (-104)
Key Players
LSU
- QB, Sam Leavitt — Last Game: 31/38, 289 yards, 4 TD
- RB, Dilin Jones — Last Game: 18 carries, 84 yards; 8 catches, 58 yards
Auburn
- QB, Byrum Brown — Last Game: 15/26, 150 yards, TD; 26 carries, 115 yards, TD
- WR, Chas Nimrod — Last Game: 6 catches, 60 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
