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Best Bet: MISS +3.5 (-120) at bet365
Score Prediction: Ole Miss 27, Texas 26
The Pick: Ole Miss 27, Texas 26
We’ll take the Ole Miss spread based on Texas’ ATS struggles in October along with the 2026 season in general.
Game Betting Analysis
Ole Miss and the Under seem to be the top plays here based on the data, but the spread has more conviction in it. The Under has hit in four of six games for Texas this season, while the Longhorns are 1-3 O/U at home and Ole Miss hitting the Under in seven straight games when facing a school from Texas as the underdog. So we go Under then? Well, the Over has hit in the last two meetings with solid offenses from each school. So the spread, for us, has more merit with Texas a terrible 1-5 on the ATS this season. Texas has also failed to cover the spread in seven straight games when playing as an AP ranked school in October. The road team has also won outright over the last two meetings.
Ole Miss-Texas Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Ole Miss’s Road Defense Against Ranked Teams vs. Arch Manning’s Turnover Issues
Ole Miss (No. 7, 5-1) brings one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country in Trinidad Chambliss, who has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,676 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 127 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores as a dual threat, but the Rebels’ defense is a legitimate liability away from Oxford, ranking 65th nationally in success rate and 89th in net EPA per drive while allowing the most yards per game in the SEC (390). That unit has been specifically exposed against ranked competition on the road, surrendering 35.6 points per game outside Oxford and a combined 90 points across two true road games against ranked opponents this season, a track record of fragility that directly applies to a trip to Austin against a Texas team still ranked 19th despite dropping two straight.
Texas, meanwhile, has its own glaring issue in quarterback Arch Manning, who has been the problem rather than the solution during that two-game skid, throwing two interceptions in a loss to Oklahoma before a costly fourth-quarter fumble cost Texas its first home loss of Manning’s career against Florida; through seven games he has 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, four of them against Power Four competition, prompting coach Steve Sarkisian to say publicly this week that he needs to see “a better version” of his quarterback. The Longhorns are further compromised with star pass-rusher Colin Simmons ruled out with a high ankle sprain and leading rusher Hollywood Smothers doubtful, and the offense already leads the SEC in three-and-out rate. If Manning can’t clean up the turnovers and a banged-up ground game can’t find room without its top two backs, Texas may not have enough offense to actually punish Ole Miss’s very real defensive vulnerabilities, even with that matchup tilted in the Longhorns’ favor on paper.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium – 50 ppg; 1-3 O/U
- Conference: SEC
Best Bets for College Football Week 8
- Ole Miss +3.5 (-120)
Key Players
Ole Miss
- QB, Trinidad Chambliss — Last Game: 20/36, 241 yards, 3 TD; 4 carries, 14 yards, TD
- RB, Kewan Lacy — Last Game: 16 carries, 122 yards
Texas
- QB, Arch Manning — Last Game: 14/20, 173 yards, TD
- WR, Cam Coleman — Last Game: 3 catches, 18 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
