Kansas State vs. Baylor: Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/12/22)

Baylor hit some bumps earlier in the season, but the Bears come into Saturday’s game against Kansas State on a three-game winning streak and squarely in the fight for a spot in the Big 12 Title Game. A win over the Wildcats, who looked dominant against Oklahoma State but fell to Texas this past weekend, would go a long way.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this Saturday’s matchup in Texas.

Kansas State vs. Baylor Prediction & Pick

I love the way Baylor is trending. It hasn’t been perfect on either end, but the running game has come into its own over the past three weeks and the defense did show some promising signs against Kansas and Texas Tech. If Blake Shapen can avoid mistakes, the Bears should have the offensive advantage in this one in their home stadium. Dave Aranda is a tremendous coach, and his Baylor teams tend to get better as the season goes on.

The only area of uncertainty here is how inconsistent Kansas State can be. The Wildcats team that showed up against Oklahoma State would beat anybody in the Big 12, but that’s not the group we see every week. With this game in Waco, Baylor -1.5 looks like the safest option.

Kansas State vs. Baylor Odds

Baylor enters as a 3-point home favorite, sitting at -165 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 53 points.

This line is pretty narrow, as you’d expect. It’s tough to gauge what Kansas State will do week-to-week. The Wildcats looked tremendous against both Oklahoma teams but haven’t looked up to the task against Texas and Iowa State. At the same time, Baylor has played a few close games recently and has a shaky passing game. Home-field advantage is all that swung this line in Baylor’s favor.

Kansas State vs. Baylor Key Matchups

Baylor’s running game has been the key to the team’s resurgence. Richard Reese ran for a combined 334 yards and 5 touchdowns in two games before Saturday’s win over Oklahoma. With Reese battling the flu this past weekend, Craig Williams took over the backfield and rushed for 192 yards along with 2 touchdowns himself. That’s a sign that Baylor has figured out its offensive scheme.

Kansas State’s run defense ranks near the middle of the pack, but it’s been burned by TCU’s Kendre Miller and Texas’ Bijan Robinson in recent losses. The Bears’ ground game could be the story of the game. Baylor’s passing game, on the other hand, is nothing special. Blake Shapen is still under 2,000 passing yards on the year and hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since an Oct. 13 loss to West Virginia.

Kansas State’s offense looked solid in Adrian Martinez’s return on Saturday, but it couldn’t keep up with Texas’ offense. Martinez also threw a costly interception late in the first half and ended the game on a fumble. If Kansas State can take better care of the ball, there’s hope the Wildcats can keep up with Baylor. Martinez and Deuce Vaughn can both run wild out of the backfield. Vaughn is an excellent pass-catcher as well and should make his presence felt.

Baylor has an above-average run defense, allowing 132 yards per game. Kansas State should still do most of its work on the ground, but that might mean Martinez and the passing game will have to be a factor and avoid turnovers. Baylor has allowed 70+ yards and a TD on the ground to both Spencer Sanders and Dillon Gabriel this season, so Martinez should have some room to run.