NBA First Basket: Predictions, Best Bets, Stats, & Odds 2024-25
Contents
NBA first basket props are available at numerous sportsbooks and have become an incredibly popular bet. All season long, you can find NBA first basket picks, odds, stats, and strategy.
NBA First Basket Odds
Search for any NBA player to bring up player props & first basket odds at multiple sportsbooks. The best odds will appear first.
NBA First Basket Data
The following table displays how frequently each team attempts the first shot of the game. It’s regular season stats for the 16 playoff teams.
Last updated: 4/19/25
| Playoff Teams | Game First Shot % |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 73.1 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 69.5 |
| Miami Heat | 59.7 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 58.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 56 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 56 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 52.4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 52.4 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 50 |
| New York Knicks | 48.7 |
| Detroit Pistons | 47.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 47.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 47.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 45.1 |
| Denver Nuggets | 43.9 |
| Indiana Pacers | 39 |
Let’s get to the player data. The following table displays how frequently a player takes his team’s first shot of the game. For example, if Jalen Brunson has attempted New York’s first shot in 10 of 30 starts, he would have a Team First Shot % of 33%.
The leaderboard contains the top-30 players in the stat among playoff starters.
Last updated: 4/19/25
| Playoff Starters (min. 15 starts) | Team First Shot % |
|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins | 52.9 |
| Jalen Brunson | 43 |
| Jaylen Brown | 39.6 |
| Alperen Sengun | 38.1 |
| Jamal Murray | 37.3 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 37.1 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 35.7 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 34.3 |
| Ivica Zubac | 33.7 |
| Austin Reaves | 31.5 |
| Chet Holmgren | 31.2 |
| Ja Morant | 30 |
| Jimmy Butler | 30 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 29.5 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 29.1 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 28.5 |
| Luka Doncic | 28.5 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 28.3 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 28.3 |
| Norman Powell | 28.3 |
| Evan Mobley | 28.1 |
| Myles Turner | 27.7 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 27.4 |
| Cade Cunningham | 27.1 |
| Bam Adebayo | 26.9 |
| Franz Wagner | 26.6 |
| Anthony Edwards | 26.5 |
| Desmond Bane | 26.4 |
| Julius Randle | 26 |
| Pascal Siakam | 24.3 |
| Max Strus | 24.3 |
Next, the following table shows how frequently a player takes the first shot of the game. For example, if LeBron James has attempted the first shot in eight of 25 starts, he would have a Game First Shot % of 32%.
The leaderboard contains the top-30 players in the stat among playoff starters.
Last updated: 4/19/25
| Playoff Starters (min. 15 starts) | Game First Shot % |
|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 27.6 |
| Jimmy Butler | 26.6 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 25 |
| Chet Holmgren | 25 |
| Jaylen Brown | 23.8 |
| Jamal Murray | 23.8 |
| Desmond Bane | 23.5 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 22.8 |
| Ivica Zubac | 21.2 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 21.1 |
| Moses Moody | 20.5 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 20.2 |
| Evan Mobley | 19.7 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 19.6 |
| Bam Adebayo | 19.2 |
| Max Strus | 18.9 |
| Alperen Sengun | 18.4 |
| Ja Morant | 18 |
| Luka Doncic | 17.8 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 17.6 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 16.6 |
| Austin Reaves | 16.4 |
| Anthony Edwards | 16.4 |
| Franz Wagner | 15 |
| Darius Garland | 14.6 |
| Julius Randle | 14.4 |
| Aaron Gordon | 14.2 |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | 14.2 |
| Luguentz Dort | 14 |
| Brook Lopez | 13.7 |
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Sportsbooks offer a number of promotions for the first basket prop. The most popular one is an odds boost, although it’s usually accompanied by a maximum wager limit. Other promotions include a portion of losses either refunded or transformed into site credit. Just as shopping for the best odds is vital, look for as many promotions as possible across multiple sportsbooks. They are usually offered every few days or at least once a week.
NBA First Basket Prop Rules
Although it’s one of the hardest props to hit, the rules of the NBA first basket prop are simple: bettors wager on the player they believe will score the first basket in the game. Bets must be placed before the game starts (there are no live bet forms of this prop), and the market closes about one to two minutes before tipoff. An important note is that it’s not the first basket scored for a player’s respective team, but rather the first basket of the game. Missed attempts count for nothing, as the player has to actually make the shot.
For example, let’s say a game starts in this fashion: LaVine misses a 3-pointer, then Tatum makes a 3-pointer, then DeRozan makes a layup. Bettors who bet on Tatum would win, while bettors who bet on LaVine, DeRozan, or any of the other seven players on the court would lose.
One distinction between sportsbooks for this prop is the relevancy of free throws. Some sportsbooks (such as DraftKings) do not count made free throws as the first basket. For example, if the game began with DeRozan making two free throws followed by a Tatum 3-pointer, then bettors who bet on Tatum would win. Sportsbooks that do not count free throws will likely label the prop “first field goal” to clearly illustrate that free throws are irrelevant.
However, other sportsbooks (such as FanDuel) count free throws and often label the prop as “first basket” instead of “first field goal.” Make sure to check the rules at the sportsbook before betting, as free throws can significantly alter the prop landscape.
Another distinction is the ability to bet on the method of shot along with the player. DraftKings only offers betting on which of the 10 starters will score the first field goal. FanDuel, on the other hand, also offers the option to choose the method of the shot. For example, a bettor could wager on DeRozan to score first on a layup, dunk, 3-pointer, or other on FanDuel. If DeRozan scored first on a 3-pointer, then the bettor who picked a DeRozan layup would lose despite him being the first scorer in the game. The addition of the method significantly lengthens the odds, but it’s subsequently much harder to win.
NBA First Basket Strategy
There are a handful of variables in first basket props, but here are a few crucial things to look at. To find more NBA advice, follow our LINEUPS YouTube channel.
Tipoff Win Percentage
The league average team turnover percentage last season was 12.1%, which means the team that wins the tipoff mostly attempts the first shot. Therefore, the first matchup to consider when selecting a first basket prop is the center battle at tipoff. It’s generally favorable to assume the taller center with the longer wingspan will win, but there are plenty of exceptions. Names to remember for the tipoff: Kristaps Porzingis, Brook Lopez, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Jarrett Allen. Find NBA starting lineups here.
This doesn’t mean players on the team that usually lose the tipoff should be completely avoided, but long-shots who don’t often score first should frequently be selected from the tipoff winning team.
Player Shot Profiles
Next, it’s important to know the shot profile of each player on the court. Do the majority of their shots come from high percentage areas like the paint? What are each player’s FG% on their most common shot attempt? How open are they on shot attempts? Do they generally force a shot or pass when heavily covered/doubled? Who is the favorite target of the ball-dominant player? Basketball-Reference is a useful tool that breaks down shot attempts by distance and percentage.
Frequency of Opening Shot Attempts
A player may take plenty of field goal attempts, but that doesn’t mean they frequently occur as the first attempt in the game. Generally, the frequency of opening shot attempts radically shifts week to week for role players, and the stars who thrive in this prop remain consistent. This concept makes sense on a fundamental level since stars will maintain a steady usage percentage and diet of shot attempts, while role players can fluctuate in opportunities.
Last 10-15 games
Finally, it’s imperative to consider the last 10-15 games for each team. This stretch can provide which role player is currently receiving extra shot attempts, and whether injuries have changed the shot patterns of teams. It also provides which players have been recently taking the first shot attempt, which is one of the premier indicators for future success.
Overall, there is far more luck embedded in this prop than others, but the idea that it’s random is incorrect. Finding trends with teams is the key, and the lengthy odds allow some leeway.
NBA First Basket Odds Shopping
Humans inherently fail to grasp the magnitude of differences at the level of extremely small and large numbers. While the provided odds on these props won’t be colossal, this principle still rings true for most bettors. The advantage gained from shopping is far more considerable than most bettors expect.
Let’s say Marcus Smart’s true first basket percentage is 10%. One sportsbook offers the prop at +800, which means the prop needs to hit 1/9 (11.1%) of the time to theoretically break even. However, another sportsbook offers the prop at +900, so the prop needs to hit 1/10 (10%) of the time to theoretically break even. Therefore, the bettor who took the +800 and didn’t shop would lose units long-term, while the bettor who did shop would break even long-term. If a third sportsbook offered +950, the bettor would gain units long-term.
It may not seem crucial to shop around, but increasing a bet’s expected value by a fraction of a unit adds up over time and can drastically improve profits or decrease losses. It only takes a few minutes at most to view three or four sportsbooks, so the opportunity cost is negligible compared to the unit boost.
NBA First Basket Prop FAQ
What Are NBA First Basket Props?
They are a certain type of player prop where the goal is to select the player who will score the first basket in the entire game regardless of team. There is only one chance per game, as the second basket made and beyond isn’t offered for live betting.
Where Can I Legally Place NBA First Basket Props Online?
You can legally place NBA first basket props online in any of the legal sports betting states. You must be physically located in a legal betting state to place an NBA first basket prop.
What Happens If My Player Doesn’t Start?
If your player does not start the game, then your bet will be fully refunded. However, if your player starts and is injured during the game before the first basket has been scored (which is highly unlikely), then your bet will not be refunded.
Can I Bet On Type Of First Basket?
Only some sportsbooks (such as FanDuel) offer the ability to bet on the method of scoring (layup, three-pointer, etc.). The odds are significantly longer, but it’s far less likely to correctly identify both the scorer and the method in which they score.
