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Best Bet: KENN -3.5 (+100) at FanDuel
Score Prediction: Kennesaw State 28, Missouri State 24
The Pick: Kennesaw State 28, Missouri State 24
We’ll try Kennesaw State’s spread based on the Owls 2026 data along with their trends when playing in October.
Game Betting Analysis
The ATS market has more merit in this one, so let’s start there as we’ll get behind Kennesaw State’s trends which includes an impressive 4-1 ATS mark to begin the 2026 season. Kennesaw State has now covered its last six games when playing in October, following an impressive defeat to Jacksonville State last week. Kennesaw State also covered their meeting against Missouri State last season, while the total market is a bit murky. Although Kennesaw State has gone Under in four of five games this season, the Over hit last last year while Missouri State has gone Over in four straight home games – where the Bears are averaigng 58 total points per game this year.
Kennesaw State-Missouri State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Kennesaw State’s Efficient Passing Attack vs. Missouri State’s Leaky Defense
Both teams arrive at Robert W. Plaster Stadium at 1-4, but how they got there points in different directions for Wednesday night. Kennesaw State has lost four straight since its season-opening 47-0 rout of West Georgia, including a gut-punch 27-26 defeat at home to Jacksonville State last week, yet transfer quarterback Rickie Collins has quietly been one of the more efficient passers in Conference USA — 1,042 yards, a 68.7% completion rate and a 129.6 passer rating, with only 3 interceptions on the season. That efficiency lines up about as well as it could against a Missouri State defense that ranks 129th nationally in total defense (439.4 yards allowed per game) and 122nd in scoring defense (32.4 points allowed per game), both bottom-10 marks in Conference USA. The Owls’ own offense (370.6 yards per game, 22.6 points per game) isn’t explosive, but a high-percentage passer who protects the ball against a defense surrendering more than 30 points a night is a matchup that should produce Kennesaw State’s best offensive output of conference play.
Missouri State, meanwhile, is dealing with its own red flags entering this one. The Bears have dropped three straight — a 24-30 loss to Marshall, a 24-34 loss at SMU, and a 13-34 blowout at Western Kentucky just six days before kickoff, leaving them on a short week with limited time to fix a defense that’s been the issue all season. Quarterback Skyler Locklear has actually been productive in his own right (699 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, 70.2% completion rate), and the Bears do get the benefit of their home crowd at Plaster Stadium. But a defense already ranked in the bottom 10 of the conference, now facing a short turnaround against a quarterback completing nearly 69% of his throws, is the kind of combination that tends to get exposed further rather than corrected. If Missouri State’s tired defense can’t get off the field on third down, Kennesaw State’s efficient, low-mistake passing game has a real path to snapping its own four-game skid on the road.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, October 14, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBSSN, Paramount+
- Venue: Robert W Plaster Stadium – 58 ppg; 2-0 O/U
- Conference: CUSA
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Kennesaw State +3.5 (+100)
Key Players
Kennesaw State
- QB, Rickie Collins — Last Game: 24/34, 293 yards, TD, 2 INT; 15 carries, 61 yards, TD
- WR, Brayden Munroe — Last Game: 7 catches, 159 yards
Missouri State
- QB, Skyler Locklear — Last Game: 12/24, 89 yards, INT; 8 carries, 76 yards
- LB, Jared Lloyd — Last Game: 11 tackles
Photo Credit: REUTERS
