Western Kentucky-Sam Houston State Picks, Odds: CFB Week 7

Best Bet: WKY -1.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet

Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 27, Sam Houston State 24

The Pick: Western Kentucky 27, Sam Houston State 24

We’ll take Western Kentucky’s spread based on head-to-head data along with Missouri State’s ATS struggles in October.

Game Betting Analysis

Western Kentucky seems to be where the betting data is pointing, so we’ll side with the Hilltoppers as they have seen favorites cover the spread in four of six games this season. They also thrive against the state of Texas, winning seven straight games outright when facing schools from the Lone Star State. Western Kentucky has won its last three games outright against Sam Houston State, covering the last two meetings. Speaking of the ATS, the Bearkats have dropped the spread in seven of eight games in the month of October. The Hilltoppers get -1.5-points on the spread and a slightly expensive -125 on the moneyline. With the above trends combined, we’ll take the spread for Western Kentucky and cross our fingers that if the Hilltoppers win, it’s not by one point.

Western Kentucky-Sam Houston State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)

Deciding Factor: Western Kentucky’s Two-Headed Run Game vs. Sam Houston State’s Vanishing Offense

Western Kentucky is riding real offensive momentum into Huntsville after its 34-13 win over Missouri State last Thursday, a game in which the Hilltoppers leaned on the ground to control the clock and the scoreboard. Running back Ajay Allen piled up 105 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries, including a 39-yard score on a direct snap, while dual-threat quarterback Brock Glenn complemented him with 95 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown of his own to go with 231 passing yards and a 42-yard scoring strike. That’s nearly 200 yards on the ground from two players in a single game, and it came one week after Western Kentucky also beat Mercyhurst 52-7, meaning the Hilltoppers (2-4, 1-1 in Conference USA) have scored at least 34 points in each of their last two outings. With Glenn and Allen both healthy and the run game clicking at this level, Western Kentucky has a proven formula to lean on against a Sam Houston State defense that’s already been without answers for a power running attack twice this season.

Sam Houston State, meanwhile, is cratering on the other side of the ball at the worst possible time. The Bearkats have scored a combined 17 points over their last two games, a 49-14 loss to Texas Tech and a 35-3 defeat at Liberty in which they were held to just 3.6 rushing yards as a team and managed only a single field goal before halftime. That 1-4 start (0-1 in Conference USA) has come with the offense going dormant against anything resembling a real Power Conference or bowl-caliber defense, and there’s no sign of an in-season fix with this being a Wednesday night short-turnaround game. Western Kentucky’s defense has its own issues, ranking 132nd nationally in scoring defense at 35.2 points allowed per game, but an offense that can’t move the ball at all doesn’t need to be stopped by a great defense — it just needs to keep running into one that’s better than it currently is. If Sam Houston State’s offensive line can’t find a push against a Western Kentucky front that just held Missouri State to 13 points, the Bearkats have no path to keeping pace with a Hilltoppers team that’s found its identity on the ground.

Game Information

Date: Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN, ESPN+
Venue: Bowers Stadium – 49.5 ppg; 1-1 O/U
Conference: CUSA

Best Bets for College Football Week 7

Western Kentucky -1.5 (-110)

Key Players