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Best Bet: U154.5 (-105) at bet365
Score Prediction: Michigan 78, Marquette 76
The Pick: Michigan 78, Marquette 76
We’ll side with the Under based on multiple Marquette data points along with Michigan’s O/U mark off a win and during the regular season.
Game Betting Analysis
The data is leaning Under, so let’s explore. Marquette is the selling point here, hitting the Under in its last four games against AP ranked schools along with seven of eight games when coming off four days of rest or more. Michigan’s trends that support the Under are a bit more grand in terms of sample size, hitting the Under at 15-21 when coming off a win along with a 12-19 O/U mark in regular season games. While Michigan is also seeing 152 points per home game, which equates the line given for this game’s total, Marquette has failed to eclipse 151 total points in a remarkable 15 straight games when facing an AP ranked school at night.
Marquette-Michigan Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Marquette’s Suffocating Depth vs. Michigan’s Three-Point Boom-or-Bust
Marquette has opened 2-0 by burying its first two opponents by a combined 96 points, beating Mercyhurst 78-43 on November 2 and blasting Detroit Mercy 93-32 four days later, and the way Shaka Smart’s team has done it points to a real advantage on Wednesday night. The Golden Eagles are allowing just 37.5 points per game so far while grabbing 48.5 rebounds a night, and the scoring has come from everywhere: Royce Parham has posted back-to-back strong two-way lines (16 points/7 rebounds against Mercyhurst, then 12 points/7 rebounds against Detroit Mercy), Sananda Fru opened the season with a 12-point, 12-rebound double-double, and bench pieces Joshua Clark (18 points off the pine in the opener) and Alex Egbuonu (16 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 14 in the second half versus Detroit Mercy) have given Marquette scoring depth many schools simply don’t have. That kind of two-deep physicality and balance is exactly the profile that can wear down a shorthanded rotation on the road.
Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a sobering 83-71 loss to UConn in a rematch of last April’s national title game, and the box score pointed to one clear culprit: three-point shooting variance. The Wolverines made just 7 of 28 attempts from deep while UConn drained 9 of 22, building a 43-30 halftime cushion that Michigan never fully erased. Backcourt stars Elliot Cadeau (3-of-9 at the break, 8 points total) and Trey McKenney (0-of-7 before halftime) combined to go just 1-of-6 from three in the opening 20 minutes, and that cold stretch was enough to drop the defending champs to No. 20 in this week’s AP poll despite McKenney erupting for 22 second-half points. If Michigan’s shooting touch deserts them again early against a Marquette defense built to punish empty offensive possessions, the Wolverines could be staring at back-to-back losses at Crisler Center; but if McKenney’s second-half scoring binge was the real signal and Cadeau gets Roddy Gayle Jr. and the frontcourt involved from the opening tip, Michigan has more than enough firepower to turn win comfortably at home.
Game Information
- Date: Wednesday, November 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: FS1
- Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
- Venue: Crisler Center – 152 ppg
College Basketball Game Trends & Odds
Key Players
Marquette Golden Eagles
- Alex Egbuonu — Last Game: 16 points
- Royce Parham — Last Game: 12 points, 7 rebounds
Michigan Wolverines
- Trey McKenney — Last Game: 22 points
- J.P. Estrella — Last Game: 19 points, 9 rebounds
Photo Credit: REUTERS
