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Best Bet: OKC -1.5 (-115) at FanDuel
Score Prediction: Thunder 115, Trail Blazers 112
The Pick: Thunder 115, Trail Blazers 112
We’re taking the Thunder spread based on their current ATS run paired with various outright trends and a low point spread.
Game Betting Analysis
We’re going with the Thunder’s spread in this one, as the Trail Blazers are actually struggling at home this season. It’s a small sample size, but the Blazers are 1-2 at home and missing Ja Morant for this one. Oklahoma City is on a current four-game ATS run and given a low spread in this spot seems fair to test for a fifth straight cover. The Thunder have won 19 of 20 games against the Blazers while also going 12-1 SU over their last 13 road games when playing as the favorites and coming off a win. Oklahoma City has also won a remarkable 27 of 28 games when playing the first game of a back-to-back, so given the low spread (-1.5-points) and the overwhelming data suggesting Oklahoma City wins, we’ll side with the spread. Our setback is that the home team has covered the spread in six straight meetings.
Thunder-Trail Blazers Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Depth-Covering Workload vs. Portland’s Home Fade
Oklahoma City is 8-2 and first in the West, riding a four-game winning streak, and it’s doing that without three regulars — Jalen Williams (leg), Chet Holmgren (knee) and Cason Wallace (shoulder) are all out long-term, with Thomas Sorber (knee) and Jaylin Williams (back) also sidelined for tonight. That’s put an MVP-caliber workload on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s averaging 29.9 points and 4.9 assists over 32.8 minutes a night through 10 games, while turning role players into focal points: Ajay Mitchell is up to 18.9 points a game on 51.7% shooting, Isaiah Hartenstein is controlling the glass at 10.1 rebounds a night, and Jared McCain scored 19 points off the bench in Oklahoma City’s 114-75 rout of Washington on Saturday. Even stripped of three rotation pieces, the Thunder are outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game and have won five of their last seven since the injuries piled up — exactly the kind of program-wide depth that travels well against a short-handed opponent.
Portland, meanwhile, is dealing with its own injury list — Shaedon Sharpe (knee) and Vit Krejci (leg) are out, Ja Morant (hamstring) is sidelined, and Robert Williams III was held out for rest — but the Blazers were a competitive team without Morant for most of last season too, so the bigger concern is a simple home skid: Portland has dropped its last two games and sits a shaky 1-2 at home against a 5-1 mark on the road. Deni Avdija (22.3 points, 6.3 assists) and Donovan Clingan (10.0 rebounds, 58.3% shooting) have carried the offense, and Damian Lillard is adding 19.4 points a game back in a Portland uniform, but the head-to-head history against this specific Thunder core isn’t kind — Oklahoma City has won the last three meetings in the series, with Portland’s only recent win coming on a 22-point second-half comeback over a year ago. If the Blazers can’t find the form that’s made them 5-1 away from Moda Center, a Thunder team that’s already weathered its own rash of injuries looks deep enough to turn Portland’s two-game skid into three.
Game Information
- Date: Tuesday, November 10, 2026
- Kickoff: 11:00 p.m. (ET)
- Network: NBC, Peacock
- Location: Portland, Oregon
- Venue: Moda Center – 220.7 ppg; 0-3
Key Players
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander— Last Game: 30 points, 9 assists
- Ajay Mitchell — Last Game: 12 points
Portland Trail Blazers
- Deni Avdija — Last Game: 15 points
- Damian Lillard — Last Game: 12 points, 7 assists
Photo Credit: REUTERS
