Check out our game predictions, betting picks, and updated odds for this game. Additionally, we have the projected starting lineups and injury news below.
Miami Heat Vs. Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds
The Miami Heat are one-point road favorites against Dallas on Friday night.
Miami has three players who will miss this game, including Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jovic, and Omer Yurtseven. Luckily, none of those players have been significant pieces in its rotation this season.
Meanwhile, Dallas will be without Maxi Kleber, McKinley Wright IV, and Christian Wood. Wood fractured his thumb and will be out until at least next week.
Miami Heat Vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Dallas is, without a doubt, one of the most volatile teams in the NBA. One day, it appears to be a potential playoff dark horse, and then the next day barely looks like a playoff team.
The Mavericks will continue to have volatile performances until they can surround Luka Doncic with the appropriate amount of help.
While Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Christian Wood are solid pieces, Dallas still needs another go-to guy. The Mavs could have had that with Jalen Brunson this season but lost him last summer to the Knicks in free agency.
Another area of concern for Dallas is on the defensive end of the floor, where it ranks 25th in defensive rating, 21st in opponent eFG% (effective field goal percentage), and 14th in opponent 3P% (three-point percentage.)
Last season, the Mavericks could lean on their defense in the second half of the year, and playoffs, to keep games close if they weren’t shooting it well. However, this season has been a train wreck defensively.
If Dallas were to add a 3-and-D player, with secondary scoring upside, at the trade deadline, it could still be a dangerous playoff team. For now, it will continue to be a roller coaster of an NBA team.
Meanwhile, Miami has won four of its past five games, including two wins over Milwaukee and a win against the New Orleans Pelicans. While neither of those teams had their best player, it is positive to see the Heat win games that it should win.
Still, there is a glaring difference between last season’s Heat team and this year’s squad: defense. The offensive struggles look similar, but Miami is allowing opponents to shoot three percent better from behind the arc and in effective field goal percentage this season.
Three percent may not sound like much, but it is a gigantic difference when considering how many possessions are in a game.
All things considered, this is a great bounce-back spot for a Dallas team that has been struggling. The Heat are giving up way too many clean looks from deep recently and have had some luck in their recent winning streak.
Doncic should have a massive game and lead the Mavs to a huge home win.
- Miami is 10-11-1 ATS on the road in 2022-23
- Dallas is 8-13-2 ATS at home in 2022-23
- The combined over record of these two teams is 49-43 in 2022-23
Even if they aren’t defending each other the entire game, Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic are certainly our key matchup in this one. See which player has the relative advantage below!
Jimmy Butler vs. Luka Doncic
Luka Doncic has put together an MVP-caliber season through the first half of 2022-23, averaging close to 34 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists. He has carried this Mavs team all season long and should continue to do so for the rest of the year, barring any physical injury.
Meanwhile, Butler has had another strong year, posting 22 points per game on 51% shooting from the field. Three-point shooting continues to be a minor issue, but that has never been a primary skillset for him.
What has been impressive, though, is Butler’s defense, as he averages two steals per game. As always, he is a tough matchup every night for opposing forwards.
Even though Miami has been winning games (nine of its past 13), it has not been particularly efficient on the defensive end outside of players like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
As a matter of fact, during that stretch, opponents shot roughly 48% from the floor and 40% from three. One thing that we know is that if Doncic sees double teams, he will pass to the open shooter.
Since Miami has not been covering the perimeter well this season, and especially recently, expect another monster game from Luka. These are the situations he thrives in. Advantage: Doncic.
Miami Heat Starting Lineup
Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineups
Miami Heat Injuries: Duncan Robinson (Out), Omer Yurtseven (Out), Nikola Jovic (Out)
Dallas Mavericks Injuries: Maxi Kleber (Out), McKinley Wright IV (Out), Christian Wood (Out)