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Top TD Picks: Chuba Hubbard & Josh Jacobs
We’re all set for an NFC matchup in Week 8 Thursday Night Football between the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers. The Panthers are coming off a surprising blowout loss at home vs. the Buccaneers, while the Packers just had a tough loss on the road vs. the Lions. Both teams are looking to get back on track on a short week. It’s projected to be a relatively high-scoring game in this one, with the total currently sitting at 47.5 points. That makes it a desirable spot for touchdown props.
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In most of my versions of this column, I’ve been focusing on finding longshot touchdown props, but we’re going with a pair of chalk picks for this one in Chuba Hubbard and Josh Jacobs. As always, be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Chuba Hubbard Touchdown Odds
We came into the season expecting Chuba Hubbard to lose touches to Jonathon Brooks. But even before Brooks got injured early in the year, Hubbard was still the main guy in the Panthers’ backfield. He’s been quite impressive in the first half of the season, rushing 96 times for 459 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Hubbard has also made an impact in the passing game, where he’s scored two touchdowns. We’ve seen him get 19+ carries in three of his last four games, topping out at 28 carries in Week 6 vs. the Eagles. Hubbard also has two games with multiple scores.
The Packers have a tough defense, ranking 10th in Dropback EPA and 12th in Rush EPA. But given how we saw Bryce Young struggle vs. the Bucs last week, where he was held to only 163 yards, it feels like leaning on the ground game is the prudent play for Carolina, especially on a short week. To that end, riding with Hubbard to score a TD is my preferred play among Panthers, even though it’s chalk at -120 odds.
We saw Bijan Robinson torch this defense for 194 rushing yards on Thursday Night Football earlier in the season, so perhaps Hubbard can find some running room in this spot.
Josh Jacobs Touchdown Odds
Josh Jacobs returned to action in Week 7. We saw him have a limited role in his first game back, where he only had 11 carries. However, he made an impact through the air, catching 5-of-7 targets for 55 yards and a touchdown. We can expect his role to continue to grow now that he has his first game out of the way.
The Panthers defense had shown improvement in run defense, but that all changed in Week 7 against the Bucs, where they were torched by Bucky Irving for 106 yards and two touchdowns. Even Kenny Gainwell got in on the action, rushing for 88, while Sean Tucker had 52 yards on the ground.
Given the fact that this is a projected high-scoring game against a defense that just got gashed on the ground, riding with Jacobs makes the most sense among Packers players. You can get him at -140 odds right now, but given how Jacobs is so good in the red zone (28 rushing TDs in the last two seasons), that feels like a bargain in this spot.
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