Mississippi State-LSU Picks, Predictions & Odds: CFB Week 7

Best Bet: O56.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet

Score Prediction: LSU 38, Mississippi State 21

The Pick: LSU 38, Mississippi State 21

We’ll try the Over based on LSU’s 2026 and home game data.

Game Betting Analysis

The spread has jumped to -15.5-points for LSU, and if Taylor can’t go for the Bulldogs then of course that seems like a great play. However, this whole game is murky from a data standpoint. LSU has covered three straight games against Mississippi State along with four of the last five meetings. However, LSU enters this game with a 2-4 ATS mark in 2026. The Bulldogs also enter with a 5-1 ATS mark, but once again, that could be jeopardized is Taylor if officially out. There is some traction to the total, hitting in four of six games for LSU this season along with three of four inside Tiger Stadium – averaging about 60 points per game. The winning team in this series has scored at least 31 points or more in four of five crossings, so we’ll try the Over with the combined O/U record for both teams sitting at 7-5 and absolutely no conviction in the ATS data.

Mississippi State-LSU Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)

Deciding Factor: LSU’s Dominant Defense vs. Mississippi State’s Injury-Ravaged Backfield

No. 22 LSU (4-2) hosts No. 16 Mississippi State (4-1) at Tiger Stadium as a sizable favorite (-14.5, roughly -535 on the moneyline) on the strength of the best defense Lane Kiffin has fielded in Baton Rouge — the Tigers rank 3rd nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and 4th in both adjusted EPA per play allowed and EPA per pass allowed, surrendering just 18.5 points per game. But LSU’s offense still has plenty to answer for: quarterback Sam Leavitt has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,496 yards and 10 touchdowns through six games, but he’s also thrown a nation-worst 8 interceptions, and Kiffin’s team has already dropped games to both Ole Miss and Kentucky this season despite the talent on the roster. Dilin Jones has emerged as the workhorse out of the backfield (94 carries, 427 yards, 5 touchdowns), giving LSU some balance, but with Leavitt himself admitting there’s “little room for error the rest of the season,” the Tigers would clearly rather lean on their stifling defense than bank on a clean game from their turnover-prone quarterback.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, arrives banged up in a way few 4-1 ranked teams are. Star quarterback Kamario Taylor (66.2% completion, 1,450 yards, 17 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, plus 159 rushing yards and a score on the ground) is officially questionable after playing through a boot on his injured right foot late in a 56-23 blowout loss to Alabama, and leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is also questionable after a similar foot injury knocked him out of that same game after just one drive. The damage goes well beyond the skill positions, too — linebackers Jalen Smith and Zakari Tillman, defensive linemen Diesel Moye and Trevion Williams, and wide receiver Ayden Williams are all ruled out, a brutal blow for a defense that already ranks 101st nationally in success rate allowed and 99th against the pass. If Taylor can’t answer the bell, it likely falls to Parker Puckett, who looked like the clear QB2 after relieving Taylor against Alabama, with AJ Swann and Jaden Rashada also in the mix. If Taylor sits or is visibly compromised, LSU’s elite defense should feast on a shorthanded Mississippi State offense and cover comfortably; but if he’s healthy enough to go, his dual-threat ability gives the Bulldogs a real path to hang around against a Tigers team that, for all its defensive strength, is still playing with a quarterback who’s turning the ball over at a nation-leading rate.

Game Information

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN, ESPN+
Venue: Tiger Stadium – 59.5 ppg; 3-1 O/U
Conference: SEC

Best Bets for College Football Week 7

Over 56.5 (-110)

Key Players