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Best Bet: OHST -3 (-112) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Indiana 23
The Pick: Ohio State 27, Indiana 23
We’ll, reluctantly, take Ohio State’s spread based on 2026 data for both schools along with the Buckeyes’ trends against Top 5 ranked opponents.
Game Betting Analysis
Although worrisome, the data points to Ohio State’s spread as a road favorite against a team that has won its last 22 games – buckle up. This all comes down to the 2026 resume for both teams entering, Indiana seeing a much big makeover since last year’s team with quarterback Fernando Mendoza gone along with key defensive pieces. Still, Indiana has playmakers like the duo-receivers and solid running back arsenal to deploy – but the 2026 betting stats reflect the most important change, the quarterback. Indiana enters this game a terrible 1-5 on the ATS market, while Ohio State enters 4-2. The Buckeyes have also covered seven of their last eight games against Top 5 AP ranked schools. Our worry comes from Ohio State being a favorite, especially at a field goal. It’s also gut-wrenching to go against Curt Cingelli and the 22-0 run for IU, but data is data. We fall to Ohio State’s spread, with total data too inconsistent to even get into.
Ohio State-Indiana Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Ohio State’s Explosive Passing Attack vs. Indiana’s Grind-It-Out Formula
No. 4 Ohio State (5-1, 3-0 Big Ten) travels to Bloomington off the back of the most explosive passing attack in the conference, and it starts with Julian Sayin, whom SI’s Big Ten QB Rankings pegged as the league’s No. 1 quarterback entering Week 7. Sayin has thrown for 1,772 yards, 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions this season, posting a Big Ten-best 10.26 yards per dropback, and his primary weapon is Jeremiah Smith, who has piled up 48 catches for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns. The two connected four times for touchdowns just last week in a 45-16 win over Maryland, with Sayin going 13-of-21 for 242 yards and four scores — his only hiccup a third-quarter pick-six off the hand of Maryland’s Daniel Wingate. Ohio State is favored at -166 on the moneyline and -3.5 on the spread (total: 50.5) and sits 4-2 against the spread this season, but the Buckeyes won’t be at full strength: left tackle Austin Siereveld and running back Ja’Kobi Jackson are both ruled out, and head coach Ryan Day has already conceded Ohio State “probably” won’t be 100% healthy by kickoff, which puts extra pressure on Sayin’s protection and on backs Bo Jackson and Legend Bey to pick up the slack on the ground.
Indiana, meanwhile, arrives unbeaten at 6-0 and ranked No. 5, but the Hoosiers have built that record on efficiency rather than explosiveness — they rank 12th nationally in scoring offense and 8th in points allowed, and analytics models like numberFire actually give them a 54.7% win probability here even as +138 underdogs, with SI’s advanced metrics crediting Indiana with more expected points per dropback than Ohio State despite the Buckeyes’ edge in yards per play. TCU transfer Josh Hoover has been nearly flawless running that operation, throwing for 1,364 yards, 17 touchdowns and zero interceptions and ranking as the Big Ten’s No. 2 quarterback per SI, and he delivered again last week at Nebraska, going 12-of-22 for 263 yards and capping the comeback with a 44-yard game-winning touchdown to Nick Marsh. The concern is that Indiana just 1-5 against the spread this season despite their perfect record. If Hoover and Indiana’s defense can keep leaning on that per-play efficiency and force Ohio State into long, methodical drives rather than letting Sayin and Smith hit chunk plays down the field, the Hoosiers have the formula to spring the upset at home; but if Ohio State’s banged-up offensive line holds up just well enough for its top-ranked passing duo to connect on a handful of explosive plays, the Buckeyes’ superior big-play ability should be enough to escape Bloomington with the win and cover the number.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Venue: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington) – 53.3 ppg; 2-2 O/U
- Conference: Big Ten
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Ohio State -3 (-112)
Key Players
Ohio State
- QB, Julian Sayin — Last Game: 13/21, 242 yards, 4 TD, INT
- WR, Jeremiah Smith — Last Game: 4 catches, 93 yards, 2 TD
Indiana
- QB, Josh Hoover — Last Game: 12/22, 263 yards, 2 TD; 5 carries, 24 yards
- WR, Nick Marsh — Last Game: 6 catches, 187 yards, 2 TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
