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Best Bet: MICH -6.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet
Best Bet: U42.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Michigan 24, Penn State 17
The Pick: Michigan 24, Penn State 17
We’ll try Michigan’s spread based on head-to-head data along with Penn State’s struggles, while the Under is also on the table with Michigan home stats.
Game Betting Analysis
Everything is point towards the Under, with the state of play for both offenses – well, Penn State’s late in a game but Michigan’s just overall in general. The Under has hit in three of four meetings while the combined O/U for these schools sits at 3-7-1, heavily trending away from the Over. Michigan has hit the Under in seven of its last eight home games as well. In terms of winners, Michigan gets the surprising nod with outright wins and covers in three straight meetings, and covers in four of the last five. Michigan, despite the ugly games, is on a 31-0 outright home run when facing non-AP ranked games (unless you count Western Michigan a loss), while Penn State has also failed to cover the spread in nine of 10 games when facing a school from Michigan as the underdog.
Penn State-Michigan Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Michigan’s Crumbling Offensive Line vs. Penn State’s Fourth-Quarter QB Problem
Michigan (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) hosts Penn State at the Big House as a 6.5-point favorite despite a two-game Big Ten losing streak and a first-year head coach, Kyle Whittingham, who CBS Sports recently flagged as needing this win more than his counterpart given the uncertainty hanging over the athletic department — AD Warde Manuel is stepping down at year’s end, and Whittingham’s buyout sits around $24.75 million. The bigger problem on the field is an offensive line falling apart at the worst time: four of Michigan’s six linemen with starts this season are banged up, with Ace Hamilton and Andrew Sprague (who hasn’t played since Week 2) both out and Jake Guarnera, Brady Norton and Andrew Babalola all questionable. That matters enormously because Michigan’s offense is already near the bottom of the Big Ten, ranking 43rd nationally in EPA per pass and a dismal 97th in EPA per rush — the Wolverines managed just 180 total yards in a loss to Minnesota and were outgained by nearly 150 yards in a 20-19 defeat to Iowa. Quarterback Bryce Underwood has been part of the problem, throwing three interceptions against just two touchdowns on 377 yards across those two losses, a stretch defined by costly turnovers in close games.
Penn State, meanwhile, brings its own first-year coach under pressure in Matt Campbell, who needs a win just as badly to avoid an 0-4 start in Big Ten play after opening the season 3-0 and then dropping three straight, including a 413-rushing-yard meltdown against Northwestern. Quarterback Rocco Becht has put up solid season totals (1,397 yards, 11 touchdowns through six games), but he’s been the one making the backbreaking mistake late in games, going just 38-of-70 for 357 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions combined in the losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern — both games in which Penn State was favored and missed makeable throws in the fourth quarter. The Nittany Lions do have real strength on defense, ranking 18th nationally in adjusted defensive EPA per play behind linebacker Tony Rojas (43 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions), and they get good injury news with leading receiver Chase Sowell (23 catches, 359 yards, 2 touchdowns) and linebacker Cam Smith both upgraded to probable off Thursday’s report. With the total sitting at a low 42.5, this looks like a game decided by which shaky offense makes fewer mistakes: if Michigan’s injury-riddled line can’t protect Underwood or move Penn State off the ball, the Nittany Lions’ defense should be able to feast and cover; but if Becht reverts to the same late-game mistakes that sank Penn State against Wisconsin and Northwestern, Michigan’s defense — 2nd nationally in total yards allowed — should be enough to win.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS, Paramount+
- Venue: Michigan Stadium – 40 ppg; 1-3 ppg; 1-1 O/U
- Conference: Big Ten
Best Bets for College Football Week 7
- Michigan -6.5 (-110)
- Under 42.5 (-110)
Key Players
Penn State
- QB, Rocco Becht — Last Game: 21/32, 289 yards, TD; 10 carries, 20 yards
- WR, Chase Sowell — Last Game: 4 catches, 95 yards
Michigan
- QB, Bryce Underwood — Last Game: 10/21, 101 yards, 2 INT; 10 carries, 20 yards
- WR, JJ Buchanan — Last Game: 4 catches, 50 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
