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Best Bet: UGA -15.5 (-115) at FanDuel
Best Bet: O47.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Score Prediction: Georgia 49, Missouri 13
The Pick: Georgia 49, Missouri 13
We’ll take the Bulldogs’ spread based on their season stats and Missouri’s ATS struggles against ranked schools, while the Over is in play based on Sanford Stadium’s betting data.
Game Betting Analysis
The standout stat here is that the Georgia Bulldogs are 5-0 to the Over when playing in Athens this season, averaging 62.6 points per game while the line we get on Saturday is 47.5. With that said, Missouri has hit the Under in seven straight conference road games – not a trend to bet against. The Under has also hit in four of five meetings between Georgia and Missouri – so we’re staying away from that market despite the stats telling us the Over is fine. While Missouri has dropped the spread in eight of nine games against AP ranked schools, the Tigers have covered three straight against the Bulldogs. Georgia enters with an impressive 7-2 ATS mark – so either market we test there will be discretion. We’ll go with the Over based on the stats inside Sanford Stadium this season, and we’ll take Georgia’s spread based on the recent 2026 data and Missouri’s ATS struggles against ranked schools.
Missouri-Georgia Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Jamal Roberts’ Workhorse Workload vs. Georgia’s Christen Miller-Less Front
Missouri arrives in Athens as a 16.5-point underdog (-700 on the moneyline, 88% win probability per Dimers), and the matchup that decides how competitive this stays is Jamal Roberts against a Georgia front that isn’t what it was a year ago. The sophomore back has been the engine of a 6-3 Missouri team all season, running for 222 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-6 win over then-No. 13 Texas A&M, adding 122 yards and a score against Troy, then carrying the Tigers past Arkansas with another 100-yard effort before Missouri fell to No. 10 Texas 34-20 last week. Quarterback Austin Simmons, the lefty Ole Miss transfer who’s started every game this year, has been efficient rather than explosive (1,952 yards, 16 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions, 63.3% completion), which means Missouri’s best path to staying in this game is leaning on Roberts to shorten the clock and keep Simmons out of obvious passing downs against a Georgia secondary that’s cut opponents’ passing output from 216.5 yards per game a year ago to 185 (33rd nationally) this season.
Georgia, meanwhile, is No. 2 in the country at 8-1 (6-1 SEC) and fresh off a 42-7 demolition of then-No. 12 Ole Miss in which Gunner Stockton accounted for five touchdowns (9-of-15 for 186 yards and four scores through the air, plus a 15-yard rushing touchdown) — numbers that have him leading all SEC quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and a conference-best 180.4 passer rating. But the Bulldogs’ only loss this season came against an unranked Auburn team that rushed for 192 yards against a Georgia front that’s noticeably thinner without injured tackle Christen Miller, and the broader stat line backs it up: Georgia’s defensive line has regressed from a year ago even as the secondary has improved, and special teams have been shaky enough that kicker Peyton Woodring is missing field goals at a career-low rate. If Jamal Roberts can replicate the kind of 100-plus-yard, clock-eating workload that carried Missouri past Texas A&M and Arkansas, the Tigers have a real path to keeping this within two scores deep into the fourth quarter. But if Georgia’s front plays like it has against everyone not named Auburn, Stockton and the nation’s most efficient SEC passing attack should be too much for Missouri to keep pace with in a building where the Bulldogs have won 24 of their last 25
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC, ESPN+
- Venue: Sanford Stadium – 62.6 ppg; 5-0 O/U
- Conference: SEC
Key Players
Missouri Tigers
- QB, Austin Simmons — Last Game: 23/43, 252 yards, 2 TD
- WR, Jamal Roberts — Last Game: 19 carries, 66 yards
Georgia Bulldogs
- QB, Gunner Stockton — Last Game: 9/15, 186 yards, 4 TD
- RB, Nate Frazier — Last Game: 16 carries, 107 yards
Photo Credit: REUTERS
