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Best Bet: USC +9.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Indiana 28, USC 22
The Pick: Indiana 28, USC 22
We’ll take the USC spread based on Indiana’s ATS woes this season and at home.
Game Betting Analysis
One of the best bets in college football this season has been against Indiana when playing inside Memorial Stadium. The Hoosiers are on an 0-7 ATS skid when playing at home, and an awful 1-8 ATS this season – a cash cow for bettors and it won’t stop here. Should it? USC is just 3-6 ATS this season, but for the run Indiana is on it would be foolish not to ride the train until the wheels fall off. If you would rather test the total, feel free, as Indiana is 2-4 on the O/U at home this season while entering with a 3-6 O/U mark overall this season. We will stay away, though, as USC has hit the Over in seven of eight games when facing an AP ranked school in November. Indiana’s defense should negate that at home, but we still have more conviction in what has worked all season.
USC-Indiana Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Indiana’s 4th-Ranked Run Defense vs. USC’s 108th-Ranked Ground Game
Indiana enters Saturday 8-1 and No. 6, and the defense is the reason the Hoosiers haven’t missed a beat while replacing Heisman-caliber production from last year’s title run. Indiana ranks 5th in FBS in total yards allowed, 4th in rushing defense, and 4th in scoring defense at 12.4 points per game — numbers that have mattered even more than usual because the quarterback spot has been genuinely unsettled. Starter Josh Hoover, the TCU transfer, has been playing through a right arm injury he suffered in the mid-October Ohio State game, and it’s shown: he went 8-of-18 for 81 yards with an interception at Michigan, then 8-of-19 for 110 yards before getting pulled at halftime against Minnesota, where Grant Wilson came off the bench and went 9-of-17 for 156 yards and a touchdown, engineering the game-tying field goal drive and throwing the overtime winner. Head coach Curt Cignetti still hadn’t named a starter for USC as of midweek. That instability makes this week’s matchup almost perfectly favorable for Indiana regardless of who’s throwing the ball: USC’s offense ranks 108th nationally in rushing, so the Trojans arrive with no real counterpunch against the exact strength — stopping the run and suffocating scoring — that’s let Indiana’s defense cover for an uncertain passing game all season.
USC, meanwhile, is 7-2 and No. 15, riding real momentum after knocking off ranked Ohio State 30-18 on the road to its College Football Playoff hopes, with Jayden Maiava (2,525 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions on the season; 222 yards in the Ohio State win) and breakout freshman Trent Mosley (512 yards, 6 touchdowns; 101 in that win) doing the damage through the air. But the same numbers that make USC dangerous also expose it: the Trojans rank 95th nationally in red-zone offense at just 81.8%, 60th in penalty yards per game (53.7), and their defense sits 55th in total yards allowed — a unit that can trade scores but can’t be counted on to get a stop when it needs one. If Maiava plays the way he did against Ohio State and USC actually finishes drives in the red zone instead of settling for field goals, the Trojans have enough firepower to make this a shootout. But if Indiana’s front does what it’s done all season — takes away the one dimension USC’s offense can’t survive without — the Hoosiers should cover regardless of which quarterback trots out for them, with Indiana favored by 7.5 as of midweek.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS, Paramount+
- Venue: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington) – 47.7 ppg; 2-4 O/U
- Conference: Big Ten
Key Players
USC Trojans
- QB, Jayden Maiava — Last Game: 15/22, 222 yards, TD
- RB, King Miller — Last Game: 13 carries, 78 yards, TD
Indiana Hooisers
- QB, Josh Hoover — Last Game: 8/19, 119 yards, TD, INT
- WR, Charlie Becker — Last Game: 8 catches, 149 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
