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Best Bets: José Ramírez , Chase DeLauter , Yandy Díaz & Junior Caminero
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Monday, October 12th
José Ramírez Home Run Odds
Peralta has a big reverse platoon split this year: left-handed batters have hit .254/.757 OPS off him and account for 17 of his 23 homers allowed, versus just .234/.688 and 6 homers against righties. Ramírez bats left-handed versus a right-hander, so he’s squarely in Peralta’s danger zone. He’s also riding the hottest stretch of his postseason: a 1.187 OPS in the ALDS (best of anyone in that series), 5-for-12 with 2 HR and 7 RBI in the last three ALDS games, and he’s three homers from the rare 300/300 (HR/SB) club. Cleveland is 10-1 this season when he homers.
Chase DeLauter Home Run Odds
DeLauter is a lefty bat getting the same benefit of Peralta’s lefty-specific vulnerability. He’s hitting .269/.808 OPS with 13 HR against right-handed pitching this season, and he’s the hottest hand in this series right now — he took Rasmussen deep (an opposite-field shot) in Game 1 and has been one of the Guardians’ most improved hitters as the postseason has progressed.
Yandy Díaz Home Run Odds
Díaz is hitting .264 with 8 HR and a .780 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, and he set the tone in Game 1 with a leadoff double that sparked Tampa Bay’s early runs. Like Caminero, he’s a right-handed bat getting the better end of both the park factor and a short-rest, fatigued Messick who has far less MLB track record to fall back on than most Game 2 ALCS starters.
Junior Caminero Home Run Odds
Caminero is a back-to-back 40-homer, 100-RBI bat, and he’s actually better vs. left-handed pitching this year (.287 avg, 8 HR, .916 OPS) than a lot of hitters are vs. their weak-side matchup. He’s also got history here — 3 HR in 17 career games against Cleveland — and he’s been notably better at home (.934 OPS) than on the road (.838). As a right-handed hitter, he also gets the slight park-factor boost (104) at Tropicana tonight. The matchup bonus: Messick is a rookie who just blew past his career-high workload (193 innings this year vs. 138 1/3 previously) and showed real fatigue in his last start — 4 walks in just 2 1/3 innings in ALDS Game 4. Tired arms tend to leave pitches over the plate, and Caminero is the hitter most likely to punish that.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
