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Best Bets: Manny Machado , Jackson Chourio & Teoscar Hernandez
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Tuesday, October 6th
Tuesday night delivers two massive NLDS Game 3s with very different stakes on the line. In Atlanta, the Dodgers and Braves are knotted at 1-1 and turning to aces Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chris Sale in a rematch of their August 27 duel that Sale won outright — the winner tonight grabs real momentum in a series that’s been separated by a single run in each game so far. Out in San Diego, it’s win-or-go-home for the Padres, who trail Milwaukee 2-0 after Jackson Chourio’s walk-off single sank them in Game 2 and now have to solve a Brewers pitcher in Dustin May who’s quietly owned them all season. Add in a loaded home run card spanning both parks, and there’s no shortage of angles to dig into tonight.
Manny Machado (Padres vs. Brewers) Home Run Odds
San Diego’s best bat through this series so far (2-for-4 in Game 2), already carrying a postseason homer and double from the Wild Card round, and he’s a right-handed bat that lines up with the one real crack in May’s profile (.398 slugging, 54% hard-hit rate allowed to righties this season). This is also right in his wheelhouse historically: Machado’s hit 9 home runs in 32 career playoff games with San Diego, and he’s shown he can get locked in fast in October — his best postseason showing came just this year at a .385 average and .769 slugging. He’s quietly carried 28 home runs and a 10% barrel rate into this series even in a down overall season at the plate, so the raw power is still very much there even if the batting average hasn’t been loud. With the Padres facing elimination and nothing left to protect, expect him swinging with intent in exactly the kind of spot he’s delivered in before.
Jackson Chourio (Brewers vs. Padres) Home Run Odds
Pivetta has been excellent since returning from his elbow injury, but his own platoon split tells the story here: both home runs he’s allowed all season have come against right-handed hitters (.250 average, 1.29 WHIP in those innings), while lefties haven’t touched him (0 HR, .173 average). Chourio is a right-handed hitter with a 25-homer season and a 12.3% barrel rate, and he’s the hottest bat on the field period right now — a .958 OPS through the first two games of this series. With Milwaukee already up 2-0 and no reason to play conservatively, expect Chourio to keep hunting pitches to drive, and Pivetta’s own numbers say a righty with real power is his one real weakness.
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers vs. Braves) Home Run Odds
Sale has been nearly unhittable overall (10 HR allowed all season, 6.2% barrel rate), but the one place he’s been genuinely exposed is against right-handed bats — 9 of those 10 home runs have come off righties, compared to just 1 in nearly 40 innings against lefties. Hernández is exactly the hitter built to exploit that split: he’s hitting .298 with a .524 slugging percentage and 7 home runs in 124 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, by far his best platoon marks. He’s also a right-handed bat slotted right behind Ohtani and Smith, so he’ll see plenty of pitches in hitter’s counts with Freeman and Tucker looming behind him. Truist Park’s HR park factor (105, 12th-friendliest in MLB) gives this a small added boost on top of a matchup that’s already tilted in his favor.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
