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We finally got back on track with a profitable night on Tuesday, as Cam Smith hit a home run, making up for losses on Ryan Jeffers and Michael Massey.
Today, we’re going with Austin Riley, Zac Veen, and Kazuma Okamoto. I like the matchup and price for each of these hitters.
Remember to be sure to check out our daily MLB betting trends page.
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2026 MLB HR Props Record: 76-319 (-1.59 units)
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Home Run Prop Predictions & Odds: MLB HR Best Bets for Wednesday, August 19
Austin Riley Home Run Odds
Austin Riley has been one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball this year. I really thought that he was going to have a bounce-back season, but he’s slashing .224/.296/.372 with 15 home runs in 496 plate appearances.
However, we’ve seen some encouraging signs. In August, Riley is slashing .314/.333/.588 with three home runs in 54 plate appearances. Heading into Tuesday’s action, Riley had five barrels in only six games.
That bodes well against Twins’ right-hander Taj Bradley, who has had issues with the long ball, as highlighted by a 1.26 HR/9.
We’re getting a nice price on Riley here, as he’s listed at longer than +500 odds at the time of this article. With that in mind, we’ll take a shot on him to hit No. 16 in this spot.
Zac Veen Home Run Odds
Zac Veen was tearing it up at Triple-A this season, slashing .327/.402/.635 with 24 home runs in 445 plate appearances. Since getting called up to the Rockies, he had two homers in 15 plate appearances heading into Tuesday’s action.
Veen has shown excellent batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 22.2% barrel rate. Playing at Coors Field in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball, you have to love being able to get Veen at such an appealing price of longer than +600 odds at the time of this article.
Even though Roki Sasaki has performed better lately, this isn’t a matchup to fear. The Dodgers’ right-hander still has a 1.70 HR/9 on the season.
Considering these favorable circumstances, Veen looks undervalued in this spot. Take him to homer for the third time this season. Risk 0.1 units.
Kazuma Okamoto Home Run Odds
Kazuma Okamoto has provided a much-needed source of power in a year where the Blue Jays haven’t been able to get it going at the plate. The first-year Japanese slugger is slashing .227/.300/.428 with 24 home runs in 493 plate appearances.
Okamoto is an extremely streaky hitter, which is why I want to ride with him in this spot, since he homered on Tuesday night. Since it’s a tough matchup against Drew Rasmussen, we’re able to get Okamoto at longer than +500 odds here.
It’s also worth noting that Okamoto has a .544 expected slugging percentage in eight career plate appearances vs. Rasmussen.
We’ll take the better price on Okamoto due to the tough pitching matchup, especially since there’s always a chance that the Blue Jays can work up the pitch count and get Rasmussen pulled early. Risk 0.1 units.
