NBA First Basket Pick Today (Oct. 27): Cade Cunningham

For all five loyal followers of our daily NBA first basket pick, today is a sad day. We came oh so close to hitting the longest odds of any starter in yesterday’s Bulls vs. Celtics game with Josh Giddey at +1400. If it weren’t for a Paul George three, we’d be swimming in it this morning (Giddey scored the game’s second basket). Boo-hoo — no one cares. We can tell the same story every game. I guess that’s what we get for being a group of dreamers.

I suppose I am feeling particularly jaded following last night. I know making picks and predictions should be an unemotional exercise based around things like “positive EV” and “competitive odds,” blah, blah, blah. Believe it or not, we do take math into account here, but taking all the emotion out of it doesn’t seem any fun. With that said, it’s time to return to some chalk today. For our October 27 pick, we’re rolling with Cade Cunningham at odds.

Why Cade Cunningham For NBA First Basket vs. Knicks

Let’s address the elephant in the room first: Cade hasn’t scored the opening bucket in any of Detroit’s three games. That honor belongs to John Collins, who’s a perfect 3-for-3 — a putback layup against Boston, a three against Miami and another putback against Philadelphia. But look at how those came. Two of the three were scrap baskets off offensive rebounds after someone else missed. That’s not a designed role in the opening set, and it’s the kind of streak that tends to cool off. Meanwhile, Cade has been right there every time: he assisted on Detroit’s second bucket against Boston, assisted on its fourth against Miami and drilled a 27-footer for the second basket against the 76ers.

The Game Script Sets Up for Us

The opening tip hasn’t mattered much for Detroit, either. The Pistons lost the jump ball in all three games and still scored first every time, because their defense forced an empty first trip and they converted on the other end. That bodes well tonight. The Knicks are 0-3, rank 29th in offensive rating and shot just 24% from three in Sunday’s loss to Orlando. If New York comes up empty on its first possession again, the ball is going into the hands of Detroit’s best player.

And Cade’s share of the offense should only grow. Jalen Duren is out at least two weeks with a hamstring strain, Ausar Thompson is dealing with an ankle injury and Isaiah Joe left Sunday’s game with a hip contusion. With Tobias Harris now in San Antonio, there just aren’t many other options to run the offense through. Cade is averaging 21.3 points on 48.9% shooting and took 19 shots against Philadelphia on Sunday. He also has a history of feasting on the Knicks, averaging 26.8 points over his last 10 games against them, including a 42-point night in the last meeting.

Call Bob Barker (The Price Is Right)

As for the price, implies about a 16.7% chance. For the player who should take the most shots for a team that’s scored first in every game so far, that’s a number we can live with. It’s not the longshot swing we took on Giddey, but every once in a while the chalk is the right call.

For more on how the NBA first basket market works, plus jump ball and opening-play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.

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