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The PGA Tour’s Fall Series continues on, as the PGA Tour’s international swing takes us to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, for the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta. An improved field is in store this week, as a far more favorable forecast awaits at Vidanta Vallarta resort.
Wyndham Clark is here to headline, in a bit of an unexpected fall stint for the World No. 5. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have asserted their dominance as pre-tournament favorites in the past, but we’ve also seen our fair share of surprises at Vidanta, with Brian Campbell picking up his first career PGA Tour win at this event last year.
Wind is the primary defense at Vidanta Vallarta, and with calm conditions in the forecast, I’m expecting to see a birdie fest in Mexico. That should open the playing field for in-form longshots this week, as streaky irons and putting will be the formula to contend.
In this article, we’ll look for diamonds in the rough ahead of the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta.
Mexico Open At Vidanta Odds
Vidanta Vallarta Course Introduction
Going into this event in 2022, plenty of guesswork was needed to project how it would play professionally, hosting some of the best players in the world for the first time. From the information available, we assumed the course would be long, just under 7,500 yards at sea level, with slow and sticky Paspalum grass throughout. Puerto Vallarta is also known for its high winds just off the Pacific coastline, so we can expect top players in windy conditions to be suited for this setup. That is a standard formula to favor the players with the longest carry distance and long-iron play.
It doesn’t always work out this way. But after a four-year sample size, it seems all the presumed narratives, of course fit for bombers and top long-iron players ring true. With such a clear player archetype in mind, it should be pretty straightforward to narrow down a player pool of contenders this week to those two criteria, with a bonus of performance in comp coastal, windy conditions. Despite Brian Campbell’s stark contrast to this profile, the totality of the 2025 leaderboard tells a different story, so for my research purposes, Campbell’s win will be treated as an outlier.
Ahead of the 2026 contest, Vidanta Vallarta has chosen to zag where others zip. They’ve shortened this easy bomber’s paradise by over 100 yards. It played to 7,456 last time we were here in 2025, but will now play to 7,337 yards in 2026, and still as a par-71. Of course, scorecard yardages are dynamic, and tee boxes can easily be pushed back to their 2025 playing distances over the course of the week, but it is notable that no concerted efforts were made to toughen up this course.
Agronomy and hole layouts remain the same, with one interesting twist: The difficult par-3 17th, which proved to be the demise of Aldrich Potgieter in 2025, will get the TPC Scottsdale stadium treatment, injecting some much-needed energy into Mexico’s national open.
Mexico Open at Vidanta Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my Mexico Open at Vidanta preview.
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Mexico Open at Vidanta Golf DFS Picks & Longshot Bets
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the Mexico Open at Vidanta, Recent Form, SG: APP, and Birdies or Better Gained are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History, Driving Distance, and SG: TOT in easy scoring conditions. There is very little defense to this course when winds are down, and an updated routing in 2026 has shaved off an additional 100 yards from this course. That should help level the playing field for shorter hitters to hang around here, but the field at large will be taking a driver-heavy approach, with Vidanta Vallarta offering such negligible penalty for misfires off the tee.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf fantasy picks and longshots for the 2026 Mexico Open at Vidanta. Stats pulled across the Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Their odds of winning the event are also shown.
Billy Horschel
We don’t always see Billy Horschel this active in the fall, but at 100th in the FedEx Cup Standings, he has no choice but to keep playing. A steady dosage of weak fields and easy courses seems to be building Horschel’s confidence back up, as he’s now strung together four top-20 finishes over his last six starts.
The approach play has been to thank you for this recent stretch of hot form, as Horschel ranks 3rd in SG: APP and 5th in Approach Fit at Vidanta Vallarta. He also ranks 5th in Go-Low Percentage, which measures the percentage of rounds in which a player posts 4-under-par or better. Paspalum is a welcome sight for Horschel too, as his most recent PGA Tour win came on this surface at the 2024 Corales Puntacana Championship.
Emiliano Grillo
The best value by my numbers this week relative to his odds is Emiliano Grillo, who ranks 6th overall in my model. Grillo has thrived on coastal, windy courses throughout his career, and is an intriguing buy-low option after a T52 showing in Bermuda last week; he was top-10 through the first two rounds, but fell precipitously after a 3-over-par showing on Saturday.
Vidanta sets up well for a bounce-back from the Argentinian, who has made the cut in all four prior installments of the Mexico Open here, including a T5 in 2023. There is plenty of correlation between Vidanta and TPC Deere Run, the site of Brian Campbell’s other PGA Tour win, and that happened to come at the expense of Grillo in a playoff. Ranking 6th in the field in Approach Fit at Vidanta, Grillo is a sneaky great course fit, and has always putted well on the Paspalum greens in Mexico.
Kihea Akina
If you’re looking for the discounted version of Ben James this week, Akina’s flawless start to his young PGA Tour career has continued to fly under the radar from an odds perspective. The 20-year-old from Utah has just four PGA Tour starts under his belt this year, but he’s made them count with finishes of T16, 81st, 9th, and T17. Two of those finishes have come in comparable coastal conditions at the Puerto Rico Open and the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, so another resort course on the docket is nothing new for him.
While the sample size is tiny, Akina’s path to contention has been encouraging, as he’s separated from the field with his total driving, approach play, and putting. Early signs would suggest his game is built to attack easy scoring venues, as he ranks top-10 in this field in go-low percentage. He’ll look to make it three consecutive top-20 finishes in Mexico this week.
Cam Davis
Brian Campbell taught us last year that no longshot is too crazy to win at Vidanta. A two-time PGA Tour winner and former Presidents Cupper, there’s no doubt that Davis’ talent outweighs his price this week. And while 2026 has been downright forgettable for Davis, we saw a glimpse of his potential at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last week, where he finished T11 and gained across each of the four strokes gained categories.
Davis’ two wins at Detroit Golf Club support he is best suited to attack easy, driver-heavy courses that forgive wayward misses off the tee. Having gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts, there is a path for Davis to parlay his best finish of 2026 into sustained momentum here in his Mexico Open at Vidanta debut.
Best of luck if you choose to roster these Mexico Open at Vidanta golf DFS picks!
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