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Best Bet: BUF -3 (-118) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Vikings 20
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The Pick: Bills 24, Vikings 20
We’ll take the Buffalo spread based on the Bills’ 2026 betting data along with Minnesota’s struggles against the AFC.
Game Betting Analysis
This is a tricky game for at least one of the popular markets, that being the total. Minnesota’s defense is notorious for holding opponents to low scoring games this season – allowing 19 points or less in six straight games. Also, the offense for Minnesota has failed to score more than 16 points in three of four games. The Vikings, therefore, enter to no surprise with a 1-6 O/U record this season and have hit the Under in its last six games overall. Buffalo, however, enters with one of the hottest offenses with 30-plus points scored in three straight games. The Bills enter Monday night with a 5-2 O/U record, which is the same as their ATS record. Minnesota has also failed to cover the spread in its last four games against the AFC – so while the total could go in either direction, the Bills’ spread seems to have a clearer path of the two.
Bills-Vikings Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Josh Allen’s MVP-Caliber Form vs. Minnesota’s NFL-Best Pressure Defense
Buffalo rolls into Minneapolis at 6-1, having won three straight by a combined margin that includes a 36-10 blowout of Baltimore, and Josh Allen is the single biggest reason why. He’s completing 65.8% of his throws (135 of 205) for 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, an 8.8 yards-per-attempt average and a 101.1 passer rating — numbers that have him ranked as the No. 1 quarterback in football entering Week 9. He’s doing it against a Vikings defense that’s allowed the fewest points in the NFL (13.3 per game) and ranks second in total yards allowed, but Minnesota has gotten there in large part by playing from ahead behind its own stalled offense, not by surviving shootouts against an MVP-caliber passer who can both carve up a defense through the air and extend plays with his legs. Allen has faced elite defenses before and still finds a way to keep the touchdowns coming; against a Vikings offense that’s been historically punchless, he may not need to be perfect to pull away.
The Vikings, meanwhile, will turn to Carson Wentz for the third game of his season after Kyler Murray was ruled out with a hamstring injury suffered in the Week 8 loss to Detroit. Through his first two appearances, Wentz has thrown for under 150 yards in both, completing 23 of 39 passes for 276 yards and 3 touchdowns combined. Minnesota’s offense ranks 29th in yards per game, 31st in passing yards and 27th in scoring, which means this game likely comes down to whether Minnesota’s defense — which leads the NFL in blitz rate (73.1%) and quarterback pressure rate (45.8%) — can get home on a Bills offensive line dealing with its own questions, with left tackle Dion Dawkins (rib) and guard Alec Anderson (ankle) both listed questionable. If that pressure front can rattle Allen the way it has rattled nearly every other quarterback it’s faced this season, Minnesota doesn’t need Wentz to be special; the Vikings have won both of his appearances this year leaning entirely on defense, and they have a real path to doing it again at home on Monday night.
Game Information
- Date: Monday, November 9, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (ET)
- Network: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN+, Disney+
- Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium – 37.3 ppg; 1-2 O/U
Monday Night Football Betting Information
Key Players
Buffalo Bills
- QB, Josh Allen — Last Game: 21/34, 289 yards, 2 TD, INT
- RB, James Cook — Last Game: 21 carries, 80 yards, TD
Minnesota Vikings
- QB, Carson Wentz — Last Game: DNP
- WR, Justin Jefferson — Last Game: 5 catches, 33 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
