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Top TD Picks: Josh Allen & Justin Jefferson
We’ve got a matchup of two of the best teams in the NFL on tap for Week 9 Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings. The Bills are coming off a blowout win over the Ravens, while the Vikings just had a disappointing loss on the road vs. the Lions. Minnesota is making a change at quarterback because Kyler Murray is injured. Carson Wentz takes over.
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The Vikings have the best defense in the NFL, which is why the total is at 44.5 despite it being a game with Josh Allen. To that end, we’re sticking with the usual suspects when targeting touchdown props in this game. Find out why I’m on Josh Allen and Justin Jefferson to find the end zone here.
As always, be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
Josh Allen Touchdown Odds
Josh Allen is having yet another MVP season, establishing himself as the undisputed best player in the NFL. He’s been an absolute touchdown machine so far, finding the end zone nine times in only seven games. He’s on pace to set a new career-high in rushing touchdowns, which is 15, back in 2023.
What I like about this spot against the Vikings is that this is the most blitz-heavy defense in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to attack the quarterback. That’s likely to force Allen to use his legs even more than usual.
When the Bills get in the red zone, you can bet that Allen is going to play a major role. Despite the elite touchdown production, we only have to pay -120 odds on Allen this week. That’s the kind of discount that I want to target with my anytime touchdown props.
Justin Jefferson Touchdown Odds
Justin Jefferson has had a disappointing season so far, putting up only 28 catches for 335 yards in six games. The good news is that he’s made an impact in scoring touchdowns, with four scores on the season, including two in his last three games.
The biggest key here is the quarterback change. It’s clear that there wasn’t much of a rapport with Jefferson and Kyler Murray. Now, with Carson Wentz under center, there’s a good chance that we’ll see Jefferson start to put up elite production once again.
Just think back to Week 1 against the Packers, when Jefferson put up 92 yards and two touchdowns. That was a game that Kyler left early, forcing Wentz into relief action. We also saw Wentz publicly state that he needs to force-feed the ball to Jefferson.
Add up those factors and then look at the price, which is currently at an appealing +155 odds. I think that the Vikings can win this game in an upset, with Jefferson leading the way on offense. Fire him up to score No. 5 on the season here.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
