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Our Teaser: Jaguars -1.5 (teased from -7.5) + Texans -1.5 (teased from -7.5) + Bengals -1 (teased from -7) (3-Team 6-Point Teaser, +140)
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms. 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET
The Teaser: 3-Team Breakdown
Leg 1: Jaguars -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
After playing a role in our profitable teaser last week, we go back to the well by kicking things off with the Jacksonville Jaguars who are catching the Philadelphia Eagles at the right time. Not only are Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith potentially sitting out due to injury, the Eagles will be integrating new pieces across the offensive line, potentially giving Jalen Hurts less time in the pocket to operate while consistently fighting off pressure.
To make matters worse for Hurts, the Jags are capable of generating pressure with just their defensive line, allowing them to anchor their linebackers in coverage which will smother his passing lanes at multiple levels of the field. While the international travel does always give some cause for concern, it’s tough to ignore the sizable advantages on both sides of the ball, setting the Jags up for success to help cover the first leg of our six-point teaser.
Leg 2: Texans -1.5 (teased from -7.5)
Even though the Houston Texans are 0-4, positive regression is looming large per their 3-1 mark in Expected Score. Fortunately for the Texans, their defense will have a great opportunity to snap out of their skid against the Tennessee Titans by relentlessly attacking an offense that ranks 23rd in Off DVOA and 26th in EPA per play while Cam Ward hovers near the bottom of the board in Success Rate.
With the defense holding the Titans into early outs, the Texans will be spotted with generous field position, increasing their chances of getting into the red zone. When backed up into the 20, the Titans secondary have been unable to take advantage of the shortened field, plummeting to the bottom ten in Dropback EPA Allowed per play. Their struggles in coverage will widen the width of Stroud’s passing lanes, improving the quality of his throws to help convert at a higher rate.
Leg 3: Bengals -1 (teased from -7)
While the offense hogs the spotlight, the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround on defense has been remarkable, entering Week 5 ranked well above league average in Def DVOA, EPA, and in Success Rate. The acquisition of Dexter Lawrence has given the Bengals a consistent source of pressure in the trenches, increasing the amount of Havoc the opposing quarterback has to deal with while throwing under duress.
With the Miami Dolphins ranking near dead last in True Pass Block Set Grade, Lawrence and company will be able to consistently get in the backfield, forcing Malik Willis to either throw on the run or extend the play with his legs for minimal success. The Bengals pressure will also give the Dolphins pass catchers less time in their routes to create separation from their assignments, making it easier for their secondary to keep a body near the point of contact to create a disruption.
NFL Week 5 Teaser Odds & Payout
| Leg | Matchup | Original Line | Teased Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eagles @ Jaguars | Jaguars -7.5 | Jaguars -1.5 |
| 2 | Texans @ Titans | Texans -7.5 | Texans -1.5 |
| 3 | Bengals @ Dolphins | Bengals -7 | Bengals -1 |
3-Team, 6-Point Teaser: +140 — a $100 bet on this teaser pays $240 total ($140 profit).
Why This Teaser Hits
At some point we will need to catch the falling knife and back the Eagles, Titans, and Dolphins, yet this week is not the week to do so with the trio all drawing tough matchups. Especially with the Eagles currently dealing with a slew of injuries, making it difficult to keep pace with a Jags offense that ranks in the top-10 in Off DVOA and in EPA per play.
The Titans, meanwhile, are in flux while Ward continues to struggle to get into a groove, holding the offense back from being able to compete. Every lost possession will feed into the Texans total number of scoring opportunities, making them vulnerable to falling quickly behind on the scoreboard with no hope of erasing the deficit.
Rounding things out with the Bengals, even with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins banged up, the Dolphins lack the talent on the back end that is needed to slow the Bengals down, giving Joe Burrow the opportunity to flip the field position in a flash while airing out the ball. If Cincinnati dips back down to -6.5 before kickoff, place a separate wager on the Bengals to cover the spread as well.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
