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The NFL season continues on with Week 5. To this point, there are only three undefeated teams left, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, and San Francisco 49ers.
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Best NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread
- Raiders +3.5
- Bengals -7
- Steelers -2.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off a fantastic win over the Buffalo Bills on the road, but before that win, the Patriots, and more specifically quarterback Drake Maye, have not looked up to snuff. The Raiders enter this game at 3-1, coming off a 3-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs who one could argue is the best team in the all of the NFL right now.
Sure, the Raiders’ three wins have come against the Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, and New Orleans Saints which may not look as strong right now with the Saints getting blown out in Week 4 and the Chargers are 0-4, but again, they came close to taking down the Chiefs.
This matchup is going to be intriguing for Maye. He’s facing a Raiders defense which is tied for the sixth-most pressures in the NFL with 62. Under pressure this season, Maye has completed 44.2% of his passes for two touchdowns and three interceptions. While he played well against the Bills, he still completed just 46.7% of his passes against pressure.
As for the quarterback on the other side, Kirk Cousins, he’ll face a Patriots defense that players Cover-1 more than all but two teams in the NFL. Against Cover-1 this season, Cousins has completed 66.7% of his passes for 172 yards (9.6 yards per attmempt), two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Raiders cover on the road as they get pressure on Maye and Cousins plays well against Cover-1.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7) at Miami Dolphins
It’s not looking good for Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase to suit up this week after suffering a concussion in Week 4. Stll, I don’t think the Bengals have trouble covering this week. The Dolphins offense is horrendous. They’ve scored no more than 13 points in any game this year and they’re 30th in the NFL in total yards of offense per game at 267.5.
Their defense has been middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed per game (335.5), but this comes down to whether or not their defense can contain the Bengals offense enough to cover at +7. The Dolphins are 1-3 against the spread this season and they only covered once because Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson put himself down inside the five yard line so the Vikings could kneel the game out. Otherwise, if he scored, they’d be 0-4 against the spread.
The Dolphins are well inside the top 10 in most snaps played on defense running Cover-6. Against that this season, Burrow has completed 84.6% of his passes for 134 yards and a touchdown. This Dolphins offense can’t score points and I don’t think it begins this week.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
While the Colts are coming off a game with 30 points and improving to 2-2, I’m worried about quarterback Daniel Jones. Through four games, Jones has completed 63.36% of his passes for 754 yards (188.5 yards per game), three touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Now, he faces a Steelers defense that runs Cover-3 more than anything else. Against that coverage, Jones has completed fewer than 60% of his passes for 207 yards (4.9 yards per attempt), zero touchdowns, and one interception. Running back Jonathan Taylor has scored twice in three separate games for six total rushing touchdowns, but he’s not been his typical efficient self. He’s averaging 4.1 yards per attempt.
For the Steelers offense, they’ll face a Colts defense that plays a lot of man coverage. Dating back to last season, Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown 14 touchdowns and three interceptions against man coverage. Additionally, the Colts are allowing 392.3 total yards of offense per game, second-most in the NFL. This is also a good spot for the Steelers’ running game and Jaylen Warren to get going even more, as the Colts allow 131 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL).
Photo Credit: REUTERS
