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Top TD Picks: D’Andre Swift , Michael Wilson
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It’s time for the Sunday afternoon Week 5 slate, so we’re going to zone in on two anytime touchdown props. This week, I’m targeting a starting running back slated for more volume along with a disappointing wide receiver in a great matchup. With that in mind, find out why I’m on D’Andre Swift and Michael Wilson. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
D’Andre Swift (Bears vs. Packers) Touchdown Odds
D’Andre Swift is off to a good start this season, rushing 69 times for 311 yards (4.5 YPC) with three touchdowns. He has also caught 10-of-12 targets for 84 yards. After scoring three touchdowns in Week 1, Swift has gone three straight games without finding the end zone. I’m betting that this will change in Week 5.
For one, Kyle Monangai has been ruled out for this game. The second-year running back has been dealing with a toe injury. Monangai has been productive as well, rushing for three touchdowns so far, including a massive game in Week 4, where he put up 146 rushing yards. With Monangai out, Swift should see more opportunities, especially in the red zone.
On top of that, it’s a good matchup against the Packers, who have struggled defending the run this season. Green Bay ranks 25th in Rush EPA and 23rd in Success Rate. We saw them get gashed on the ground against Bijan Robinson and the Falcons. Don’t be surprised if Swift does something similar. While this is expensive at -145 odds, it’s the kind of chalk pick worth taking this week given the favorable circumstances.
Michael Wilson (Cardinals vs. Lions) Touchdown Oddxs
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been extremely disappointing this season. He’s become an afterthought in the Cardinals offense, essentially being used as a “sacrificial x-receiver,” running clear-out routes on the perimeter for Michael Wilson and Trey McBride to get peppered with underneath targets. He’s now gone, so expect the Cardinals to go ‘all-in’ with Wilson as their true No. 1 wide receiver (although McBride is at TE).
Wilson has a great matchup to find the end zone. It’s a projected high-scoring game with a 54.5-point total. On top of that, the Lions have been abysmal in pass defense this season, ranking 30th in EPA and 31st in Success Rate. We just saw Tetairoa McMillan shred this secondary on Sunday Night Football.
Now, obviously McBride will likely take some targets, but Harrison’s gone so Arizona will likely look at Wilson more than before and presents a great look to get loose downfield for a long touchdown. Wilson becomes the clear top outside receiving option left in Arizona’s offense — with Harrison Jr. traded away and the team already financially committed to Wilson as a reliable piece alongside McBride, his target share and red-zone looks should climb enough to turn one of those extra opportunities into a touchdown.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
