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Best Bet: O45.5 (-105) at DraftKings
Best Bet: OREG +7.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Oregon 24, Ohio State 23
The Pick: Oregon 24, Ohio State 23
We’ll go with the Over based on Ohio State’s home data, while the Ducks covering is also on the table based on head-to-head trends and Ohio State’s quarterback situation.
Game Betting Analysis
Last week was quite telling for Ohio State, losing the starting quarterback and playing as road favorites with all the betting data in the world supporting them. The result, however, was a reminder how crucial the quarterback position is. Ohio State is in a similar situation, playing a very good team looking to finish the season strong – with motivation, as the favorite. The underdog has covered the spread in three of four meetings, so there is a play on the underdog that has more of a case to see a smaller line. However, the Over has hit in all four home games for Ohio State this season, while hitting in seven of eight games going back to last season. Oregon enters 5-3 on the O/U this season as well, and Ohio State was able to score 18 on the road, still. Oregon to cover or the Over works, but Ohio State is still a question mark as to what type of betting them they are with the quarterback situation.
Oregon-Ohio State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Dylan Raiola’s Hot Hand vs. Luke Fahey’s Shaky First Start
Oregon enters Saturday 5-3 and unranked, but it arrives at Ohio Stadium with real momentum after rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat then-No. 20 Northwestern 34-26 on Oct. 31, a game Dylan Raiola carried almost single-handedly. The Nebraska transfer, who took over after Dan Lanning ruled starter Dante Moore out for the rest of the season, made his second straight start and delivered his best performance yet: 22-of-31 passing for 336 yards and three touchdowns. That kind of downfield production is notable against a Buckeyes defense that, for all its respectable season-long numbers (15.5 points allowed per game, 13th nationally), just got exposed through the air in a stunning 30-18 road loss to USC that dropped Ohio State from No. 2 to No. 11 in the AP poll. If Raiola plays with the same rhythm and anticipation he showed against Northwestern, Oregon has a real chance to hang with a Buckeyes offense that still ranks 11th nationally in total yards (474.8 per game) and ninth in passing (315.3 per game).
The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are breaking in a true freshman of their own under far less favorable circumstances. Ryan Day turned to Luke Fahey after ruling Julian Sayin — hurt on a fourth-quarter sack against Indiana — out for the rest of the regular season, declining to put any timeline on his return. All signs pointed to Fahey getting the start against USC, and in that game he managed only 240 yards passing with a touchdown and an interception while Ohio State’s defense, which ranks just 20th nationally against the pass (177.8 yards allowed per game), couldn’t keep the Trojans out of the end zone. Ohio State is favored by 7.5 with the total set at 47.5, but if Fahey takes the same uneven step that defined his first start while Raiola builds on the 336-yard, three-touchdown outing that just toppled a ranked Northwestern team, Oregon’s backup-quarterback duel could keep this one far closer than the number on the board suggests.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS
- Venue: Ohio Stadium – 60.8 ppg; 4-0 O/U
- Conference: Big Ten
Key Players
Oregon Ducks
- QB, Dylan Raiola — Last Game: 22/31, 336 yards, 3 TD
- WR, Dakorien Moore — Last Game: 7 catches, 128 yards, 2 TD
Ohio State Buckeyes
- RB, Bo Jackson — Last Game: 21 carries, 121 yards
- WR, Jeremiah Smith — Last Game: 10 catches, 83 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
