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Alright, let’s start off today with a state of the union — it’s been 17 days since the start of the 2026-27 NBA season. We’ve made 12 first basket picks (buckle up for lucky number 13!!) and are currently up 9.50 units on the year.
It’s never a time to get overconfident. The process was sound for Pelle Larsson yesterday, but the moment I found out Giannis was playing, I should have switched. Hand up. Today, we’re going back to the well with what has been most successful for us all year — centers with passing point guards.
As such, for today’s NBA first basket pick, we’re going with the Los Angeles Lakers’ Walker Kessler at odds.
Why Walker Kessler For NBA First Basket vs. Trail Blazers
The Lakers have scored the first basket in six of their nine games this season. Most of these have come from the perimeter, which keeps Kessler’s price long and gives him some potential value here.
Playing next to Luka Doncic, who bends defenses in the pick-and-roll like few players in the league, Kessler is the roll man who benefits when Portland sends help toward the ball. He also has a second path to the first bucket on the offensive glass. If the Lakers’ opening shot misses, a Kessler putback counts just the same, and his shot profile means that when he does get a look, it’s usually a high-percentage one.
Then there’s the price. At +575, a $100 bet returns $575 in profit, and those odds carry an implied probability of roughly 14.8%. With 10 starters on the floor, a random pick would hit about 10% of the time, so the question is whether Kessler is meaningfully better than average. A starting center who’ll take the opening tip and lives at the rim checks the boxes you want, and +575 is a fair number for a player with two real paths to the first basket. You’ll find shorter prices on the guards who handle the ball more, but for a prop this volatile, Kessler offers a solid blend of probability and payout.
NBA First Basket Tracker 2026-27 Season
| Date | Pick | Odds | Units Wagered | Overall Record | Units +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | Walker Kessler | +575 | 1.00 | ?? | ?? |
| 11/05/2026 | Pelle Larsson | +600 | 1.00 | 3-9 | ▲9.50 |
| 11/04/2026 | De'Aaron Fox | +600 | 1.00 | 3-8 | ▲10.50 |
| 11/02/2026 | Zach Edey | +470 | 1.00 | 3-7 | ▲11.50 |
| 10/30/2026 | Bam Adebayo | +600 | 1.00 | 3-6 | ▲ 12.50 |
| 10/29/2026 | Deni Avdija | +750 | 1.00 | 2-6 | ▲ 6.50 |
| 10/28/2026 | Tyler Herro | +650 | 1.00 | 2-5 | ▲ 7.50 |
| 10/27/2026 | Cade Cunningham | +500 | 1.00 | 1-5 | ▲ 1.00 |
| 10/26/2026 | Josh Giddey | +1400 | 1.00 | 1-4 | ▲ 2.00 |
| 10/23/2026 | Brandon Miller | +600 | 1.00 | 1-3 | ▲ 3.00 |
| 10/22/2026 | Jarrett Allen | +600 | 1.00 | 1-2 | ▲ 4.00 |
| 10/21/2026 | Anthony Edwards | +600 | 1.00 | 0-2 | ▼ 2.00 |
| 10/20/2026 | Jaylen Brown | +700 | 1.00 | 0-1 | ▼ 1.00 |
For more on how the market works, plus jump ball and opening play strategy, see our NBA first basket guide.
