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Best Bet: U42.5 (-118) at DraftKings
Best Bet: MIZZ +2.5 (-102)
Score Prediction: Texas 21, Missouri 20
The Pick: Texas 21, Missouri 20
We’ll take the Under based on head-to-head data and Texas road stats, along with Mizzou’s spread based on Texas’ ATS struggles – but low conviction in both.
Game Betting Analysis
There are a handful of betting stats suggesting the Under in this one, so we’ll start there. The Under has hit in the last two meetings between the schools but Texas has hit the Under in its last five road games when playing in November. The combined O/U record for both schools entering also sits at 6-10 slightly favoring the Under. Our setback, though, is the points per game inside Faurot Field, 51.8 points which is nearly 10 times more than the line given (42.5). The spread has some slight edge as well for those unconvinced in the total, Texas 3-5 on the ATS this season and failing to cover six straight games when facing AP ranked schools as a Top 10 AP ranked school.
Texas-Missouri Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Missouri’s Takeaway Defense, Ground Game vs. Texas’ Shaky Passing Attack on the Road
No. 19 Missouri enters Saturday’s home game at 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC, having just blown out Arkansas 34-10 behind a physical, ball-hawking formula that has defined its season. Running back Jamal Roberts carried 23 times for 138 yards and added a two-yard touchdown run plus three catches for 20 yards, good for 158 total yards and two scores, while the defense turned three Arkansas fumbles and a KJ Jackson interception into 24 points, including a Darris Smith fumble-return touchdown. Quarterback Austin Simmons didn’t need to do much more than manage the game, going for 179 yards and two touchdowns, because Missouri’s defense is the unit that has made the Tigers an SEC contender: it’s part of why Texas coach Steve Sarkisian flagged this specific matchup as a tough spot for Arch Manning, calling out Missouri’s “strong pass defense” as a group built to take away the easy downfield shots that have given Texas trouble on the road this year.
The Longhorns, meanwhile, arrive at 6-2 off a stretch that has been anything but steady. Texas lost as the nation’s No. 1 team at Oklahoma 27-24 in the Red River Rivalry, then got upset at home by unranked Florida, which held the Longhorns to under 300 total yards of offense and briefly sparked outside chatter about benching Manning. Since then, Manning has answered with back-to-back strong outings, a 34-27 escape over then-No. 7 Ole Miss after blowing a 21-point lead, followed by a 31-3 rout of Mississippi State that Sarkisian called “really gritty,” with the coach adding, “I’ve never felt better about Arch Manning than I do this week.” But Texas now has to prove that bounce-back is real against a Missouri defense purpose-built to make it a one-dimensional, low-value day through the air, and with the Longhorns needing to win out just to keep their playoff hopes alive, there’s no margin for another Florida-style stall. If Missouri’s pass defense forces the same kind of empty possessions out of Manning that Florida did and Jamal Roberts controls the tempo on the ground, the Tigers have a real path to handing Texas a third loss and seriously complicating its College Football Playoff math.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Venue: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium – 51.8 ppg; 2-2 O/U
- Conference: SEC
Key Players
Texas Longhorns
- QB, Arch Manning — Last Game: 16/20, 220 yards, 3 TD
- WR, Cam Coleman — Last Game: 2 catches, 61 yards, TD
Missouri Tigers
- QB, Austin Simmons — Last Game: 20/31, 179 yards, 2 TD
- RB, Jamal Roberts — Last Game: 23 carries, 138 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
