Oregon State vs. Washington Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/4/22)

After the first few weeks of the season, it looked like Washington might emerge as a surprise Pac-12 power this season. While the Huskies have still had a promising season, it’s Oregon State that comes into this weekend’s matchup as a top-25 team. The Beavers are ranked for the first time since 2013, and one of these 6-2 teams will come out of Week 10 with serious momentum on its side.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this Friday night special in Seattle.

Oregon State vs. Washington Odds

Washington enters as a 4.5-point home favorite at -180 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 55 points.

This is a great offense vs. defense matchup, and it’s entirely possible Oregon State would be favored if this game were in Corvallis. Behind new head coach Kalen DeBoer and transfer QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington’s offense has taken off, while Oregon State has allowed a combined 19 points over its last two games and held Caleb Williams to his worst performance earlier in the season. Will offense or defense prevail in this one?

Oregon State vs. Washington Prediction & Pick

This one is tough to gauge for a Week 10 matchup. Despite the large sample sizes, it’s impossible to guarantee how an upstart offense will fare against an upstart defense. In a battle of two teams exceeding expectations, it feels like the safer pick is the home team, but can Washington cover -4.5?

Oregon State thrives on stifling offenses, and after Washington was held to 28 points by California last time out, the Beavers should have a real chance to hold the Huskies in the 20-30 point range. That’s enough for Oregon State to be in this game right until the very end, especially given Washington’s defensive issues. Oregon State +4.5 is the way to go here.

Oregon State vs. Washington Key Matchups

Washington has had a dynamic passing game all season, scoring 32+ points in each of their first seven games before a 28-21 win over California two weeks ago. Even in their two losses, the Huskies scored plenty of points. DeBoer has made a huge difference with this team, working with Penix to give Washington one of the nation’s top passing offenses.

This is where the game will be won. Will Oregon State be able to slow down Penix? The former Indiana quarterback has 22 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through eight starts, with four games of 4+ touchdown passes. His 2,934 yards lead all FBS quarterbacks. Washington allowed 40 and 45 points, respectively, in its two losses this season. It doesn’t feel like Oregon State is capable of that kind of scoring production, so a big defensive performance will be needed.

This game can work out one of two ways for the Beavers. Oregon State’s defense can play like it did against USC, when it allowed only 17 points and kept Caleb Williams off balance all night, or the unit can struggle like it did against Utah.

The 42-16 final score against the Utes is a bit misleading – Oregon State threw four interceptions in that game and actually out-gained Utah. The defense wasn’t great by any means, but it didn’t crater. This is a very talented group that Washington isn’t used to facing. In fact, four of the last six quarterbacks to go up against Oregon State’s defense completed no more than 50% of passes.

Washington’s defense is vulnerable, particularly through the air. It’ll be interesting to watch how the Beavers attack it. Oregon State is expected to start Ben Gulbranson again with Chance Nolan injured, but Gulbranson has arguably been an improvement due to a lack of turnovers. While Gulbranson isn’t beating anyone by himself, he’s thrown 5 touchdowns and only 1 interception in three starts.

To this point, Gulbranson hasn’t been a high-volume passer. Jonathan Smith has let RB Damien Martinez take on a much larger role, setting a season-high in rushing yards in each of his last three games. Washington’s defense is much more vulnerable through the air, so it feels like Gulbranson is going to have to air it out a bit more to keep up with the Huskies.