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Best Bet: NWE +3 (-110) at Fanatics
Best Bet: U50.5 (-105)
Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Bears 23
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Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Doesn't Win*
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The Pick: Patriots 27, Bears 23
We’ll take the Patriots’ spread based on various data points, while the Under is equally considerable based on Chicago’s trends – especially at home.
Game Betting Analysis
The Under is a big play here for one reason only, and that’s the Chicago Bears home trends. The Bears enter this game with a perfect 0-3 O/U mark at home, averaging a very low 27 points per home game this season. This goes back to last season as well, with the Bears now cashing the Under at home in seven of eight games. Chicago is also 2-4 O/U through six games overall this season, so the data is heavy in the corner of the Under based solely on Chicago. Now New England doesn’t have much total data to get behind for this one, but the Over has cashed in four of five meetings – a little concerning but the last meeting in 2024 was the one that went Over. New England has owned this series, covering and winning outright in four of five meetings while also entering with a 6-1 ATS mark when facing a team over .500 on the road. Chicago has also lost 10 of 11 games when facing a team on a winning streak, so there’s a few ways you could go here based on the data.
Patriots-Bears Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Chicago’s League-Leading Run Game vs. New England’s Turnover-Prone Offense
Chicago’s ground game is producing at an elite, sustained level, not just in volume but in efficiency. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing at 160.7 yards per game, carried by a Swift/Monangai duo that’s actually outperforming its workload: D’Andre Swift has 398 yards on 94 carries (4.2 yards per carry, 6 touchdowns) through six games, and Kyle Monangai has been even more efficient when healthy, racking up 324 yards on just 60 carries (5.4 yards per carry, 3 touchdowns) across four games before a turf toe injury briefly slowed him down. That’s two backs averaging a combined 9.6 yards per carry between them in a league where 4.0-4.5 is typical, and it gives Chicago a floor-raising, clock-controlling weapon regardless of who’s rushing the passer or which cornerback is blitzing. The more Swift and Monangai stay efficient on early downs, the fewer possessions New England’s offense gets to work with on a short week.
New England, meanwhile, carries a turnover problem that’s been a season-long pattern rather than a one-game blip. Drake Maye has committed 12 turnovers through six games (7 interceptions, 5 fumbles), and the Patriots rank 31st in the NFL in turnovers per game at 2.2 — a number head coach Mike Vrabel himself called “an embarrassment,” directly tied to blowout losses against Seattle (3 INT) and Jacksonville (2 INT, 2 fumbles) earlier this season. The encouraging sign for New England is that Maye hasn’t thrown a pick in his last two outings, so the issue has trended in the right direction recently, but that stretch hasn’t come against a defense that can keep the ball on the ground and control field position the way Chicago is built to. If Chicago’s run game does its job and limits New England’s offensive snaps while Maye’s early-season turnover habits resurface even once, the Bears have a clean path to covering at home; if New England’s recent ball security holds, the Patriots’ top-10 scoring defense (5th in points allowed) gives them enough margin to keep this a one-score game late.
Game Information
- Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (ET)
- Network: APVO
- Location: Chicago, Illinois
- Venue: Solider Field – 27 ppg; 0-3 O/U
Thursday Night Football Betting Information
Key Players
New England Patriots
- QB, Drake Maye — Last Game: 18/32, 235 yards, 3 TD
- WR, DeMario Douglas — Last Game: 7 catches, 86 yards, TD
Chicago Bears
- QB, Caleb Williams — Last Game: 30/36, 305 yards, TD
- RB, D’Andre Swift — Last Game: 16 carries, 44 yards, 2 TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
