Patriots-Bears Player Props: D’Andre Swift, Drake Maye and A.J. Brown Best Bets, NFL Week 7

An intriguing interconference matchup between the Patriots and Bears opens the Week 7 slate at Soldier Field on Thursday Night Football.

New England and Chicago come in with matching 4-2 records and will be looking to further cement themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders in their respective conferences.

With the stage set, let’s dive into three player props to consider for Thursday’s action. Be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.

Patriots-Bears Best NFL Week 7 Player Props

• D’Andre Swift Over 58.5 Rushing Yards
• Drake Maye Under 20.5 Completions
• A.J. Brown Over 4.5 Receptions

D’Andre Swift Over Rushing Yards

Despite there being the potential for some fireworks through the air in this matchup thanks to the talent on both sidelines, the Bears could very well try to establish the run early and often. Not only is Chicago in the friendly confines of its home field and a favorite, but the matchup against the Patriots tends to tilt toward the ground game. With Christian Gonzalez back in the lineup and Carlton Davis potentially set to return from a two-game absence as well, Swift may be busy as the Bears’ preferred method of moving the ball early.

The veteran back appears likely to once again shoulder a clear lead-back workload, as Kyle Monangai (toe/thumb) did not participate in either of the Bears’ first two walkthroughs of the week and there seems likely to miss another game. In such a role in Week 6 against a stingy Falcons run defense, Swift saw 20 total touches, 16 of those on the ground. While he grinded his way to just 44 rushing yards (and two TDs), the matchup sets up appreciably better on paper. 

The Patriots have conceded just under 4.2 yards per carry to running backs, with the Jets’ Braelon Allen, who profiles similarly as a player to Swift, the latest to enjoy some success in the form of a 17-carry, 78-yard day in Week 6. Catching a defense on the road and on short rest at this point in the season is also always a plus, and Swift’s workload should give him a fighting chance here if the game more or less unfolds as oddsmakers project.

Original Line Publish: 58.5

Drake Maye Under Completions

Maye has had some ups and downs early this season, and he’s seen a significant completion percentage drop to a career-low 63.9% from last year’s career-best 72.0% figure. This year’s middling number is partly constituted by three sub-60.0% tallies already, with two of those coming on the road. Maye is now facing an aggressive Bears secondary that seems to be sharpening up as the season unfolds.

Chicago is now allowing an impressively modest 62.6% completion rate to quarterbacks. That’s the byproduct of the Bears conceding a stingy 60.2% catch rate to wide receivers, which helps dampen Maye’s prospects of an efficient night through the air even further. Maye has already fallen short of 21 completions on those aforementioned three occasions where his completion rate checked in under the 60% threshold, and Chicago’s ability to apply consistent pressure (17.0 sacks) also supports the notion of some issues when he drops back.

Finally, it’s certainly worth noting the Bears rank No. 1 in the league by far in fewest completions allowed per home game (11.7), and while that’s just a two-game sample against Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith, it’s impactful enough to not ignore.

Original Line: 20.5

A.J. Brown Over Receptions

Having just made a case for how effective the Bears can be at limiting production through the air, we now have what on the surface would seem to be a contradictory prop. However, there’s a case to be made for the Over on Brown’s reception total for a number of reasons, and ironically, his extremely poor return to action in Week 6 is one of the primary ones.

Brown brought in just three of 10 targets in the win over the Jets on Sunday, and he had a particularly egregious drop on a very catchable deep ball. Yet, precisely because he’s supposed to be such a key part of the air attack and he had an ugly showing, Brown is virtually guaranteed to be peppered with targets once again Thursday, in an effort to both get him going from early in the game and quickly put the malaise behind him. 

Additionally, Brown will be taking the field without Romeo Doubs, who’s now on injured reserve due to the shoulder injury he suffered on his 42-yard TD reception versus New York. That’s naturally one fewer competitor for Maye’s attention, which gives his chances of getting to at least five receptions in a game where the Pats are expected to be trailing late a boost.

Original Line: 4.5

Photo Credit: REUTERS