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Top TD Picks: AJ Brown & D’Andre Swift
We’re all set for an inter-conference matchup Week 7 Thursday Night Football between the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears. The Patriots are coming off their third win in a row, where they took care of business against the division rival Jets. The Bears got back on track with a road win vs. the Falcons. This is a projected high-scoring game with a 50.5-point total, so it’s a great spot for touchdown props.
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In recent articles, I’ve been focusing on finding longshot touchdown props, but we’re going with a pair of chalk picks for this one in AJ Brown and D’Andre Swift. As always, be sure to check out our NFL betting trends page for data and odds on every game.
AJ Brown Touchdown Odds
AJ Brown returned to action for the Patriots in Week 6. It was a disappointing game, as he hauled in only 3-of-10 targets for 27 yards. The veteran wideout looked a bit rusty given his four-game absence. He couldn’t get on the same page with Drake Maye. But you have to love the fact that he was immediately thrust into a heavy role with 10 targets. With Romeo Doubs now on injured reserve, Brown has one less target to compete with in the red-zone. After all, one of Doubs’ strengths is making it happen between the 20s. That bodes well for Brown’s chances of scoring a touchdown here.
On top of that, you have to like the game environment. The Patriots are three-point road underdogs, so there’s a chance that they’ll be playing from behind, forcing Maye to the air more often than usual., With a 50.5-point total, there’s a legitimate chance that this can become a shootout.
If we dig deeper, we see that Brown has an edge schematically as well. The Bears are 4th in man coverage rate and 9th in single-high coverage rate. Brown’s main skill is beating man coverage downfield. We’ve seen him do that time and time again while he was with the Titans and Eagles. We saw this Bears defense get torched by Christian Watson and Matthew Golden in Week 5, so perhaps something similar can happen with Brown here.
You can get Brown to score a touchdown at anytime at +135 odds, which is an appealing price considering the circumstances.
D’Andre Swift Touchdown Odds
D’Andre Swift has rushed 94 times for 398 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry this season. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, you have to love his heavy usage in the red zone, as he’s already scored six touchdowns this year. Swift found the end zone twice in Week 6 vs. the Falcons and now has three scores in his last two games.
With the Bears as three-point home favorites, there’s a chance they can play with a lead in this one, meaning more rushing volume. Even though Roschon Johnson takes the Kyle Monangai role, creating a committee backfield, it’s the right matchup to choose a Bears’ running back. That’s because the Patriots have been much more vulnerable on the ground (24th in EPA) than through the air (14th in EPA).
I’m a big believer in Ben Johnson as a playcaller. I think he’ll exploit that weakness by leaning on the run in this Thursday Night matchup. We saw James Cook (6.3 YPC) and Bhayshul Tuten (4.9 YPC) each run efficiently vs. this defense. I’ll bet on a similar outcome with Swift.
The only issue here is that we have to lay heavy juice on this prop at -160 odds, but it’s worth a look when you consider how much the Bears love to run the ball in the red zone. Not only does Swift have six touchdowns, Monangai (3 TD) and Johnson (1 TD) do as well.
Photo Credit: REUTERS
