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Best Bet: LIB O29.5 (-120) at DraftKings
Score Prediction: Liberty 31, Kennesaw State 23
The Pick: Liberty 31, Kennesaw State 23
We’ll try Liberty’s team total based on recent trends entering this game, as other data points are too uncertain in this one.
Game Betting Analysis
Everything is point to the Under here. Liberty enters this game with a 2-4 O/U record, while Kennesaw State enters with a 1-5 O/U record – as the Owls have seen the Under hit in seven of eight games. So, we take the Under? Well, the Over has hit in the last two meetings between these schools, while Liberty has scored at least 30 points in four straight games – an offense showing signs of not slowing down and coming off a rested BYE week. Both schools enter with 4-2 ATS marks, but its the Owls who have covered both meetings along with eight straight conference home games. While the data points are all over the place with this one, the safest trend seems to be Liberty’s scoring of 30 points or more in four straight games. We’ll lean in that direction by process of elimination.
Liberty-Kennesaw State Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Liberty’s Top-20 Defense vs. Kennesaw State’s Bottom-25 Offense
Liberty rolls into Thursday’s Conference USA matchup at 5-1 behind a defense that ranks among the best in the FBS, allowing just 15.3 points per game (15th nationally) and 291.7 total yards per game (19th), including a stout 124.2 rushing yards allowed per game on only 4.0 yards per carry. The Flames’ pass defense has been even better, surrendering just 167.5 yards per game on a 51.9% completion rate allowed (13th nationally), and they’re coming off a 35-3 blowout of Sam Houston in which quarterback Deshawn Purdie went for 114 yards and a touchdown to push his season totals to 1,050 yards, 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Kam Davis has added 524 yards and 4 scores on the ground, giving Liberty a balanced, low-mistake offense (223.0 rushing yards per game, 15th nationally) to pair with that elite defense. That defense now lines up against a Kennesaw State offense ranked 86th nationally in total yards (369.8 per game) and 107th in scoring (22.3 per game) — a unit that managed just 21 points in a loss to Missouri State its last time out.
Kennesaw State, meanwhile, enters 1-5 with a defense that’s been nearly as porous as its offense is inefficient, allowing 23.5 points per game (66th nationally), 233.3 passing yards per game (102nd) and ranking 132nd in red-zone defense. Quarterback Rickie Collins has been a dual-threat weapon (1,287 passing yards, 271 rushing yards, 9 total touchdowns) but has also turned the ball over 3 times through the air, and the Owls’ defense has forced only 3 interceptions and 5 fumbles all season. Liberty also wins the field-position and clock battle before the game even starts — the Flames rank 12th nationally in time of possession while Kennesaw State sits at 102nd, meaning the Owls’ offense figures to see fewer possessions against a defense that already smothered Sam Houston to the tune of 3 points. If Liberty’s defense plays to form against an offense this inefficient, the Flames have every reason to cover as 8.5-to-10.5-point favorites and push this toward a second straight lopsided win; but if Collins can use his legs to extend drives and keep Kennesaw State’s defense off the field, the Owls have shown enough fight (4-2 against the spread this season) to keep Thursday night closer than the number suggests.
Game Information
- Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: CBSSN, Paramount+
- Venue: Fifth Third Stadium – 49.3 ppg; 1-2 O/U
- Conference: CUSA
Best Bets for College Football Week 8
- Liberty O29.5 (-120)
Key Players
Liberty
- QB, Deshawn Purdie — Last Game: 10/14, 114 yards, TD
- RB, Kam Davis — Last Game: 10 carries, 67 yards, TD
Kennesaw State
- QB, Rickie Collins — Last Game: 26/34, 260 yards, TD; 9 carries, 25 yards, TD
- RB, Boogie Woods III — Last Game: 13 carries, 47 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
