Share 
Best Bet: U46.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Best Bet: LSU -4.5 (-113) at bet365
Score Prediction: LSU 26, Texas 20
The Pick: LSU 26, Texas 20
We’ll take the Under based on various trends for both schools, while the LSU spread is supported by Texas’ ATS struggles off a win.
Game Betting Analysis
The good news for LSU is that the Tigers are 2-0 ATS when coming off a loss, also covering seven of eight home games when facing a school from Texas as the favorite. More good news for LSU fans or bettors, Texas has dropped the spread in four of six games when coming off a win. Texas has also hit the Under in four of six games when coming off a win, also hitting the Under in seven straight games when playing as an underdog in November. LSU is 2-4 on the O/U when facing conference opponents while also hitting the Under in all four games against ranked schools this season. We’ll take the Under and the LSU spread, in that order of conviction.
Texas-LSU Odds (Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under)
Deciding Factor: Texas’s Run-Stuffing Defensive Front vs. Sam Leavitt’s Turnover-Prone Arm
After losses to unranked Oklahoma and Florida left preseason No. 1 Texas’s playoff hopes seemingly dead, the Longhorns (7-2, No. 7) have clawed back into the conversation behind a defense that’s quietly become their best unit. In last week’s 34-20 comeback over Missouri, Will Muschamp’s front held the SEC’s leading rusher, Jamal Roberts, to just 66 yards, with Graceson Littleton and Rasheem Biles anchoring a defensive line deep enough to absorb injuries without missing a beat, while Arch Manning did the rest on offense (28-of-38 for 297 yards and three touchdowns in that game). LSU is Texas’s only ranked opponent left on the regular-season schedule, and if that same run-stuffing front travels to Baton Rouge the way it played in Missouri, it sets up as the single biggest advantage in a game one model gives Texas only a 41% chance to win.
LSU, meanwhile, is 6-3 in Lane Kiffin’s first season in Baton Rouge and enters off a gut-punch 31-13 loss to Alabama in which the Tigers actually outgained the Crimson Tide 457-285 and racked up 27 first downs — then beat themselves, going 0-for-4 on fourth down, missing a 56-yard field goal, and surrendering a go-ahead touchdown set up by a 32-yard punt return as Alabama scored the game’s final 21 points unanswered. Quarterback Sam Leavitt, the Arizona State transfer, was at the center of it: 380 yards passing on 47 attempts and zero touchdowns thrown, extending a season-long turnover problem that has him at 8 interceptions through his first seven games against 14 touchdown passes, erratic enough that LSU alumni have publicly voiced frustration with his decision-making down the stretch. If Leavitt can protect the ball and LSU can finish drives the way its yardage totals suggest it should, the Tigers have more than enough firepower to win a shootout at home. But if Texas’s defensive front repeats its Missouri performance and forces LSU to live and die by the pass in exactly the way that’s burned Leavitt all season, the Longhorns should survive the last ranked test on their regular-season schedule.
Game Information
- Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ABC
- Venue: Tiger Stadium – 52.2 ppg; 3-3 O/U
- Conference: SEC
Key Players
Texas Longhorns
- QB, Arch Manning — Last Game: 28/38, 297 yards, 3 TD
- WR, Ryan Wingo — Last Game: 6 catches, 53 yards
LSU Tigers
- QB, Sam Leavitt — Last Game: 35/47, 380 yards, INT
- RB, Dilin Jones — Last Game: 17 carries, 56 yards, TD
Photo Credit: REUTERS
