2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Bay Hill
It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Compare Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Tommy Fleetwood project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Another week, another signature event! All the game’s best return to action in Orlando for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. That means Arnold Palmer Invitational odds include all the best players on the PGA Tour.
The API tests players’ all-around game and has produced a decorated list of winners with few surprises. Standing over 7,400 yards, Bay Hill forces a high volume of approaches from 200+ yards and features some of the thickest rough on tour. That emphasizes distance, long irons, and short game around firm and fast Bermuda greens.
Over the last seven years, Kevin Chappell has remained the only player to have registered four rounds in the 60s in the same tournament. So, we should expect patience from players to battle through four challenging days of golf. Here is everything you can expect from Bay Hill and the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2026 OPENING ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Scroll to the bottom of this article to compare complete API outright odds. Find the favorites in Florida this week with odds shorter than 20-1 below when those become available.
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
The API follows the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational as the third signature event of the season. With its signature status, the purse has increased to an event-high $20M. Naturally, that attracted almost every eligible player inside the OWGR top 50, including Justin Thomas, who will return from back surgery for his first start of 2026. I got a chance to see Thomas in person at TGL last week, and suffice to say, he’s in Orlando to brush the rust off, with modest expectations for himself in his first start back. Aaron Rai and Marco Penge are the only PGA TOUR players inside the OWGR top-40 not in the field.
PGA Tour odds this week include a tight field of just 72 players, down dramatically from the 120 who previously filled this Invitational tournament before its upgrade to signature event status. Unfortunately, that eliminates Cinderella longshot stories like Kurt Kitayama from back in 2023. However, the TOUR made its intention clear that it wants its most significant events to feature prominent stars in contention come Sunday.
Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are in a class of their own this week. Both are past champions who are in great form, leading in once again. Just like the Genesis Invitational, there should be a clear gap in Arnold Palmer Invitational odds between the top two and the rest of the field. The next tier of Schauffele, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Henley, Morikawa, and Matsuyama each carry question marks regarding their recent form or course history.
Russell Henley is back in the field this week for his 2025 API title defense. Henley took this tournament away from Collin Morikawa with a surprise chip-in eagle on the 16th hole on Sunday. Kurt Kitayama, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jason Day are the only other past champions of this event returning in the field.
INTRODUCTION TO BAY HILL
We are in the teeth of the “grinder” stretch on the PGA Tour. For the third straight week, par will score well on most holes. Like PGA National last week, penalties loom, with water hazards in play on nine holes. The API has caused the highest percentage of penalty strokes in four of the previous five years. Unlike PGA National, however, there is a far greater penalty for missed fairways. Bay Hill features some of the thickest and most penal rough we see on the tour schedule.
The top 10 players in this field in SG: ball striking on courses with high penalties for missed fairways and playing from the rough are Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Lucas Glover, Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners, Ludvig Aberg, Daniel Berger, and J.J. Spaun. It’s a real “who’s who” of major contenders who tend to rise to the top of leaderboards at Bay Hill.
Similar to PGA National, heavy Florida winds factor in. In 2020, Tyrrell Hatton survived severe winds with a Sunday 74. His -4 was enough to claim victory by one stroke. In 2022, the weather took a turn for the worse over the weekend. It quickly became a scrambling contest, with greens nearly impossible to reach in regulation. The median score has fallen around +5 in years when winds are up. Needless to say, it’ll be worth monitoring the forecast this week.
There’s also a steady trend of international players finding success here, suggesting an advantage for those comfortable in conditions more exposed to the elements. While Kurt Kitayama is American, his decorated prior history on the DP World Tour furthers a trend of players with proven performance in the elements finding success at Bay Hill. Last year’s winner, Russell Henley, has also developed to be a strong links player, finishing top-10 in each of the last two Open Championships.
COURSE HISTORY & COURSE COMPS
A long list of players have enjoyed repeat success at the API. It’s an eclectic group of bombers and short-game specialists, but none come as much of a surprise.
Looking at each of the last nine winners, it’s notable that eight posted a top-15 finish at this event before picking up their win. If that trend continues, a longer list of 32 players fits the bill. Notables who have made multiple API starts without a top-15 finish include Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and Min Woo Lee. Given this strong trend of prior course history, we are likely to see a discount on these players this week.
Rory McIlroy
Rory must have a flair for invitationals. If there’s an event he’s proven more consistent at than The Genesis, it’s the API. Over 11 career appearances, he’s never finished outside the top 30. That includes a win in 2018 and a current streak of nine consecutive top-20 finishes.
He led the first round in 2022 and posted the day’s low round in eight of the last nine API events. After a promising runner-up showing in his last start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, McIlroy comes to this event with great momentum and is a legitimate threat to challenge Scheffler at this venue.
Others Excelling At The Arnold Palmer Invitational
After McIlroy, the rest of the top 10 in course history are Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley, and Michael Kim. Although that list spans drastically different profiles of players, there’s a prevailing trend of veterans who’ve proven consistent in difficult scoring conditions.
Eleven players in this field have delivered multiple T10 finishes over the last five years: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Chris Kirk, Keegan Bradley, Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, Andrew Putnam, Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland. Additional players with multiple top-15 finishes over the same span include Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, and Sahith Theegala.
There’s a long list of 16 players who have avoided missing the cut over the last five years (minimum three appearances): Day, McIlroy, Kirk, Fowler, Bradley, Thomas, Spieth, Henley, Cantlay, SW Kim, Im, Conners, Scheffler, McCarthy, Schauffele, and Aberg. That list illustrates that course history is stickier at Bay Hill than most other courses.
Course Comps
This is one of the rare weeks on the PGA Tour where course history is sticky enough to prioritize over comp course history. With that said, plenty of signals remain to draw from other long and difficult comp conditions.
Quail Hollow is the best place to start. Both courses are over 7,400 yards, which is an advantage for bombers. They feature thick and penal rough throughout and have firm and fast Bermuda greens. Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Viktor Hovland have all proven the strong correlation between both courses.
PGA National and Innisbrook Resort also share characteristics similar to those of the Florida region. Muirfield Village has offered a similarly stern test with its length, thick, rough, and firm greens.
Annually, one of the most challenging scoring venues on the PGA Tour schedule, it’s always a good idea to reference recent Major results, as Scheffler foreshadowed with his 2022 victory. Oak Hill, Valhalla, Pinehurst No. 2, Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines (South), Oakmont CC, and Augusta National are strong comps to simulate scoring under challenging conditions.
Wrap that all together, and the top 10 players in terms of comp course history are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, and Keegan Bradley.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER FOR 2026 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS
- Driving Distance / SG: OTT
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG
- Bogey Avoidance
- Prox: 200+
- P3: 200+
- Par-5 Scoring
- SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda / Fast Bermuda)
- Course & Comp History
The diversity of leaderboards we’ve seen here makes Bay Hill so great. You can’t simply cross players off from contending if they are below average in distance, approach, or putting. We’ve seen Matt Every win as often as Tiger Woods since 2010. There’s no set formula to find success at Bay Hill, but prior success in demanding conditions is the best indicator. The top 10 players in SG: T2G (difficult scoring conditions) are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Robert MacIntyre, Alex Noren, Tommy Fleetwood, and J.J. Spaun.
Bay Hill offers a high concentration of approaches from long-range. About one-third of approaches come from beyond 200 yards, and 70% come from over 150. The top players in terms of proximity 200+ are Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Kurt Kitayama, Jake Knapp, Viktor Hovland, and Nicolai Hojgaard.
Bay Hill offers a different test on second shots than we’re used to seeing. We’ll see plenty of long iron approaches out of thick rough. They’ll often serve to bail out false fronts where players can make an “easier” up and down.
It’s still a PGA Tour event, and SG: APP still reigns supreme. Players who excel in approach give themselves scoring opportunities on a course where those are not exactly abundant. Top players in SG: APP playing this week are Viktor Hovland, Si Woo Kim, Scottie Scheffler, Nicolai Hojgaard, Collin Morikawa, Chris Kirk, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Ryan Gerard, and Akshay Bhatia.
Short Game Emphasis
With a winning score of -12 or less in six of the last eight contests, repeatedly scrambling for pars is a premium skill set. Nine players rank above-average in SG: ARG, SG: P (Fast Bermuda), scrambling gained, and bogey avoidance: Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay, Maverick McNealy, Jacob Bridgeman, Robert MacIntyre, and Stephan Jaeger.
From a putting standpoint, Bermuda specialists stand out on the Florida Swing. This course has seen success from short-game savants like Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. In a weighted model of recent total putting, Bermuda putting, fast green putting, and API putting, the top players are Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ben Griffin, Denny McCarthy, Harris English, Patrick Rodgers, Jason Day, Maverick McNealy, Ludvig Aberg, and Andrew Putnam.
Piecing this together, I’m looking to zero in on players above average in SG: APP, prox 200+, SG: ARG, SG: T2G (L16 rounds), course history and comp course history, and total weighted putting. There are just six players who fit that criteria: Russell Henley, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Si Woo Kim.
Correlation And Bay Hill
As is usually the case when we get to a challenging golf course that tests all-around game, the markers of success at Bay Hill do not vary drastically from what it takes to succeed across all PGA Tour courses.
The biggest jump in importance in terms of correlation with SG: TOT is SG: Short Game and SG: APP. That makes sense on a course that yields a high percentage of missed greens in regulation.
SG: P (20-25 ft), P3: 200+, and driving distance also saw notable increases in importance compared to the tour average.
As for stats to avoid, prox 75-125 and sand saves gained saw the biggest drop in importance.
Four players rate out above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for Bay Hill: Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, and Patrick Cantlay.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: LUDVIG ABERG
For the second year in a row, Aberg has battled an illness throughout the California swing that has kept him from playing to his full superstar potential. Maybe it’s the California water, or a street taco gone wrong, but in any case, I’m sure he’s excited to turn the page for a fresh start in Florida.
While the results may not be what Aberg hoped for through his first two months of the season, his game is not as far off as it might seem. He gained across all four Strokes Gained categories in each of his last two starts, and continues a stretch of nine top-25 finishes over his last 12 starts.
Aberg has been rock solid at Bay Hill, finishing top-25 in each of his first three appearances; that includes a T24 in his 2023 as an amateur. Encouragingly, Aberg has looked dominant with both his driving and putting in each API appearance, ranking top-10 in the field in each category at Bay Hill.
In this loaded field, I love the buy-low value on Aberg’s odds this week. He ranks No. 1 overall in Proximity: 200+, and top-15 in the key categories of Comp Course History, SG: Ball Striking (Narrow Fairways & Penal Rough), and SG: T2G (Difficult Scoring Conditions). Aberg is already a TGL standout for The Bay, and now he has the opportunity to course-correct at Bay Hill.
2026 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
For my model this week, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, SG: ARG, prox 200+, course history and comp course history, and SG: T2G (difficult scoring conditions) followed by a more balanced mix of weighted putting (Bermuda, fast greens), driving distance, par 3: 200+, par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and SG: T2G (L12 rounds). I typically don’t feed that many categories into my model. But, I think this event is a testament to well-rounded players across several specific distance and short game-oriented categories.
Model Favorites
No surprise here – the No. 1 player, the hottest golfer in the world, two-time Arnold Palmer Invitational champion, and inevitable favorite, Scottie Scheffler, claims the top spot in the model this week. Scheffler has finished T11, 1st, T4, and 1st over his last four appearances at Bay Hill. He continues to be his dominant self from Friday through Sunday, so if Scheffler can simply post a middle-of-the-pack opening round, he will be tough to beat this week.
After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, Ben Griffin, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland.
When the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds release Monday, I will build a top-heavy card with Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, or Collin Morikawa. Given Scheffler and McIlroy’s dominance at Bay Hill and their current form, this does not set up to be a week for a surprise longshot winner.
Check back in later this week for more updates. Thanks for reading, and best of luck navigating the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds!
2026 ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS
