2026 Open Championship Golf Pools: Strategy, Ideas, Expert Picks & Predictions For Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Golf majors have become the most popular weeks of the year for golf pools. So, if you’re a casual sports fan, hesitant to bet on Open Championship odds, and want to play in a contest with friends, you’ve come to the right place. This strategy guide will walk you through the best options in each tier for your 2026 Open Championship golf pool picks.
I’ve also already written about The Open DFS picks for fantasy contests. These could apply to traditional pools, too.
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THE OPEN FAVORITES: TOP 10 IN 2026 ODDS
Find odds for this year’s Open Championship favorites below. You can use these to inform your Open Championship pool picks as well. Click any odds to wager on Open Championship odds at betting apps in your area.
STRATEGY FOR OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF POOL PICKS
Like a daily fantasy tournament strategy (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.), game theory is key for your Open Championship golf pool picks. It’s best first to understand who the popular players in each tier will be, then decide which ones you want to double down on and which ones you’re comfortable fading for a more contrarian option. Below, we’ll review each tier’s consensus popular and pivot plays. The format in each golf pool will vary, but the below tiers are structured in order of consensus betting odds, as is most common for golf pools.
How Do Open Championship Pools Work?
Typically, the best cumulative score under par of the players rostered wins an Open Championship pool. Some pools will severely penalize one of your players’ scores if they miss the cut. For example, if a player misses the cut with a score of +2, the pool may add 10 strokes and make the player +12. That means it’s critical that the players you pick make the cut. Also, check your pool rules to see if the worst score is not counted among your picks. Sometimes, this is a feature of golf pool rules and scoring.
Tier 1: Top 1-8 Players
The Popular Play: Scottie Scheffler
The defending Open champion is trending in a very different direction now than a year ago at Royal Portrush. While he’s left no doubts about whether his stateside dominance can translate to the unpredictable elements of the Open links, it’s been several months since Scheffler truly looked the part of a dominant World No. 1 force. In his final audition before The Open at the Genesis Scottish Open, Scheffler put up a dud, with his first missed cut in nearly four years.
The sky is not falling for Scheffler, though, as easy as it may be for us to overreact to a 6-month winless stretch. He is just one start removed from a playoff loss at the Travelers Championship, a venue that produces a similar number of intermediate approach shots. Considering he has six top-5 finishes over his last nine starts, Scheffler is still, to me, the deserving favorite at Royal Birkdale this week, as this venue still caters well to his strengths of precise ball striking.
The Pivot Play: Chris Gotterup
Brand new to this top tier in major pools, Gotterup is charging full steam ahead into Royal Birkdale and has proven to be a worthy favorite at The Open. The New Jersey native appears to be a natural in links conditions, finishing T11, 3rd, and 1st in his last three starts between the Scottish Open and the Open Championship.
The 26-year-old has quickly amassed five career PGA Tour wins just 2.5 years into his professional career. The most recent of which came just two starts ago at the John Deere Classic. Having already won three times on Tour this season, Gotterup would secure PGA Tour Player of the Year honors with a win at The Open this week, and may still catch novice PGA pool players by surprise.
Tier 2: Top 9-20 Players
The Popular Play: Ludvig Aberg
It has been a disappointing, winless season by Aberg’s standards, but winning is the only area in which Aberg has really fallen short. The young Swede has contended often with six top-10 finishes this season, including top-5 finishes at the PGA Championship and THE PLAYERS, where stakes were high, and course yardage was short.
He’ll look to continue that trend of great performances at venues where accuracy is essential this week at Royal Birkdale. Aberg is not the imaginative shot-shaper you would typically envision thriving at The Open, but Royal Birkdale is an exception to most links layouts. Here, a straight and accurate ball flight with the driver and mid-irons will do well, as playing from these flat fairways will be essential to finding scoring opportunities. We don’t often see Aberg fall to the second tier in pools, and this is an opportune spot to take advantage.
The Pivot Play: Russell Henley
Royal Birkdale is a short course that rewards a straight ball flight. It keeps everything right in front of you, and simply asks players to execute accurate drives and consistent iron play from inside 200 yards over and over again. That is Russell Henley’s game in a nutshell, and especially with calm conditions in the forecast, this may be his best opportunity yet to claim a major championship.
Henley has proven his game can translate on the Open links, regardless of weather conditions, finishing top-10 in each of his last two starts at The Open. He is just four starts removed from beating a strong field at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which demands a similar premium on accuracy. With six top-15 finishes in the 2026 season, his game looks ready to chase his third consecutive top-10 finish at The Open this week.
Tier 3: Top 21-50 Players
The Popular Play: Min Woo Lee
The chef is an easy player to root for, and he dazzled fans with his powerful drives and finesse around the greens at The Renaissance Club last week, where he finished runner-up to Tom Kim. Min Woo came to the Genesis Scottish Open as a former champion, showing that he is comfortable navigating the unpredictable elements that links golf produces.
Like many other top Australian talents, Min Woo is excellent at navigating the wind, as proven by his top-10 finishes earlier this season at Pebble Beach, Bay Hill, and Memorial Park. He profiles as a pure bomber off the tee, a skill that will be neutralized at Royal Birkdale. However, with his approach game significantly improved this season, he’s also become a dangerous threat on shorter, less-than-driver courses that compare well to Royal Birkdale.
The Pivot Play: Akshay Bhatia
Just add wind, and Akshay Bhatia suddenly becomes one of the fiercest competitors on the PGA Tour. His two most recent wins have come when battling difficult conditions in high winds at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Valero Texas Open. The results have not quite materialized yet for Bhatia on the links, but he’s improved with each year of experience, posting a career-best T30 finish at Royal Portrush last year.
Bhatia has been excellent on U.S. comp courses that reward creative shot-shaping, accurate ball-striking, and managing the wind. He finished T5 in his most recent start at the Travelers Championship. The same event Jordan Spieth won in his last start before triumphing at Royal Birkdale. He’s also finished in the top 15 in each of his last two appearances at THE PLAYERS Championship. A T17 finisher at the U.S. Open last month, Bhatia seems to be rounding into the peak form he displayed at the top of this season, which culminated in a huge Signature Event victory at Bay Hill.
Tier 4: Top 51-75 Players
The Popular Play: Cameron Smith
I wouldn’t advise that any player try to replicate Jordan Spieth’s path to victory at Royal Birkdale in 2017, but if there’s any player in this field who is capable of driving it to the other side of the dunes and scrambling for miraculous par saves from unspeakable trouble, it’s Cameron Smith. A player as poor at driving as Smith really is best suited to win an Open Championship at a wide-open venue like St. Andrews, which is exactly what he did in 2022.
As a recognizable name and recent past champion, I expect Cam Smith to get plenty of clicks in Open Championship pools. The case can be made that he is returning to his vintage form, too, as he followed up a T7 showing at the PGA Championship with finishes of T16 and T5 in his next two starts on LIV.
The Pivot Play: Sepp Straka
There’s no other way to put it: it’s been a strange 2026 season for Sepp Straka. A two-time winner on the PGA Tour in 2025 and once an automatic ball-striker has become much more volatile in 2026. The good for Straka has been great: He’s played his best golf on comparable short, positional courses that demand accuracy and creativity around the greens, finishing T2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and 8th at THE PLAYERS Championship.
A stretch of MC, 72nd, MC in his last three starts will scare plenty of pool players away, but I believe this is an interesting buy-low spot at low ownership. Links golf is a different animal, and Straka has proven to be up to the task with finishes of T22 and T2 over the last three years at The Open.
Tier 5: Top 76+ Players
The Popular Play: Sahith Theegala
Like Smith, there are plenty of Spiethian qualities to Sahith Theegala’s game, and if you’re looking for a longshot future to hitch your wagon to, it’s conceivable to me that Theegala could follow in Jordan Spieth’s footsteps to claim victory at Royal Birkdale.
Like Spieth, it is always an exciting journey from tee-to-green for Theegala, but he prides himself on being an escape artist. With these fairways proving difficult to hold for even the most accurate players on Tour, I’m drawn to a player like Theegala, who can scramble his way to par when caught in nefarious positions. It was that escape artistry which propelled him to a T11 finish last month at Shinnecock Hills, and with five top-11 finishes and just one missed cut this season, Theegala has shown that his game is better than these odds suggest.
The Pivot Play: Bernd Wiesberger
The former European Ryder Cupper is having a true renaissance season on the DP World Tour. The 40-year-old Austrian ranks 8th in the Race To Dubai rankings and looks to be on an inside track to secure a PGA Tour card for next season. His 2026 was highlighted by a decisive victory at the Volvo China Open, which emphasized a similar game plan of precise ball striking that is needed at Royal Birkdale.
Wiesberger has proven links experience, winning the Scottish Open back in 2019. He held a share of the first round lead at the Scottish Open last week, and will come to Royal Birkdale in very promising form with six top-20 finishes over his last nine starts.
Best of luck with your US Open golf pool picks!
Photo Credit: REUTERS
