2026 Open Championship Round 1 Matchup Odds, Picks, Best Bets & Analysis
We are just one day away from the 2026 Open Championship officially kicking off. That can only mean one thing: dissecting the Round 1 Matchups board!
In this article, we’ll touch on overall matchup betting strategy at The Open, then jump into our favorite plays to consider before the first tee shot on Thursday.
18-Hole Matchup Strategy At The Open
I tend to prefer betting in the full-tournament matchup markets, as I’m a firm believer that the larger the sample size, the more likely we are to see the superior player prevail.
The Open, however, welcomes more access and information for us to scrutinize leading in. Based on the insights uncovered during practice rounds and course feedback in player interviews, there is still an opportunity to exploit value in the opening round.
Royal Birkdale’s singular identity compared to other courses on The Open rota is its emphasis on precision. While other links venues may feature more generous fairways and greens or add unpredictability via uneven bounces in the fairway, pure accuracy will go rewarded on this setup which features smaller greens and flatter fairways. That diminishes the usual importance of driving distance, and creates a lane for non-traditional Open Championship contenders to pop.
In analyzing these Round 1 matchups, I’m looking to buy low on players who are precise ball strikers, as this figures to be a very unique test, and play more similarly to a traditional positional venue. Ahead, we’ll go through four of my favorite Round 1 matchup plays to consider for the 2026 Open Championship.
Top Round 1 Matchup Plays
Alex Fitzpatrick over Robert MacIntyre
Best Odds Available: +100 (DraftKings)
It’s a dangerous proposition to bet against Robert MacIntyre on the links, but Royal Birkdale’s particular emphasis on accuracy relative to other venues on the rota leads me to believe he may be due for a setback. Unlike The Renaissance Club, where MacIntyre has dominated over his career with another T3 notched last week, there is a steep penalty for wayward drives at Royal Birkdale. Macintyre has been below field average in driving accuracy in five of his last six starts now, and has leaned especially on his short game of late.
Alex Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, projects as a much stronger course fit for Royal Birkdale. He ranks top-15 in this field in terms of both driving accuracy and SG: APP, and has been just as hot as MacIntyre of late. He’s posted 11 top-25 finishes over his last 13 starts now, and has proven himself on this stage before, finishing T17 in his only other Open Championship appearance.
Corey Conners over Keegan Bradley
Best Odds Available: -120 (DraftKings)
In this battle of the proven ball-striking veterans, I have just a little more confidence in Conners’ combination of recent form and Open Championship track record. Since June, Conners has been the better player in this matchup, highlighted by a T7 finish at the Travelers Championship. He continues to play his brand of golf, which emphasizes accuracy over power off the tee and features world-class consistency on approach. At The Open, Conners has put his artistry on display too, finishing in the top 30 in four of his last five visits.
By contrast, Keegan has struggled to find the answers to links golf. He has shockingly missed the cut in five of his last six Open Championship starts and has not cracked the top-20 since 2016. In this relatively even matchup of course fit and recent form, I’m siding with Conners, who holds a significant edge in event history.
Harry Hall over Haotong Li
Best Odds Available: -120 (DraftKings)
Haotong Li has been a popular longshot consideration this week, considering he finished T4 at last year’s Open Championship and 3rd the last time The Open came to Royal Birkdale in 2017. That does not tell the full story for Haotong leading into the 2026 Open Championship, however, as those results appear to be the exception to the player he is today. Li had made just one cut at The Open between 2017 and 2025, and will come to Royal Birkdale in far worse form this time around. He has not cracked the top-30 since his third start of the 2026 season in January and has 11 missed cuts over that span.
Hall’s form is not significantly better than Li’s leading in, but it is better nonetheless. The Englishman grew up playing links golf in this area, and it shows in his game, as he is one of the most gifted short-game players in this field. A T28 finisher in his only other Open Championship start, this is a spot I can see Hall turning his season around with the supportive local crowd on his side.
Johnny Keefer over Pierceson Coody
Best Odds Available: -118 (DraftKings)
Johnny Keefer got his first taste of links golf as a PGA Tour pro at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, and much like Chris Gotterup, he surprised himself by how much he loved this style of play. A T3 finish in Scotland tied for his best career result to date, and was the first instance this season in which he’s gained across all four strokes gained categories. That’s an encouraging sign of momentum for the 25-year-old rookie, who has proven he has the ball-striking chops to hang with the best players in today’s game.
Coody has been an encouraging young talent in his own right since joining the PGA Tour in 2024, but he’s proven to be more of a long-course specialist, where he can flex his distance advantage and get away with the occasional wayward miss. I don’t expect a driver-heavy approach will serve him well at Royal Birkdale, especially coming off a missed cut in his first PGA Tour start in links conditions at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open.
Best of luck with your 2026 Open Championship bets!
Photo Credit: REUTERS
